Chris Johnson vs. Matt Forte Scoring Analysis
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

Photo via Matt Forte Twitter

If you have already started running 2013 fantasy football mock drafts, you know one of the conundrums you will face in the second round this year is whether to select Matt Forte or Chris Johnson- if you are looking for a running back in that spot.

There are many factors to consider. Both have improved offensive lines. Both have offenses that appear to set up for their talents this season. Chris Johnson never misses games. Matt Forte misses them on occasion. They are the same age.

I dissected their fantasy scoring distributions to help settle the debate. I used a three-year study to give us proper sample size. Both runners experienced offensive turbulence and sub-par offensive line play over this period. The data should paint a fair and unbiased picture of each.

We look at this data, because winning in fantasy football is about consistency. You have to field a competitive team every week. Information of this type can help us construct a team in that light.

Over the three-year span studied, Chris Johnson has averaged 12.15 PPG and Matt Forte 13.16 PPG (standard scoring leagues), so we are looking at a full point in Forte’s favor there. But, Chris Johnson has not missed a game (100% GP). Matt Forte has missed five (89.6% GP).

Interestingly, the full one-point difference is pretty evenly distributed over the whole sample. In almost every scenario, Forte scores at a little higher clip than Johnson. Both have more propensity for crapping their pants than any of us would like, though.

Still, it is almost unfathomable as fantasy owners that Chris Johnson scores less than 10 points 43.75% of the time. Let that soak in.

As much as we love the new interior of the Titans offensive line, that number is completely unacceptable. Matt Forte doesn’t make it out of this report unscathed either. He is not exactly the model of reliability, missing games due to injury and scoring less than 10 points 35.04% of the time.

The difference is, when Forte goes for less than ten points, he still usually gets you something semi-respectable. When Johnson bombs, his scores are plain embarrassing, scoring less than seven points almost one-third of the time. We were also surprised to see that while the frequency is fairly insignificant, Forte produces a super-fantasy 30-plus-point monster more than twice as often as Johnson.

What we are really weighing here is Forte’s durability versus Johnson’s scoring reliability. In combination with the direction of their offenses.

By the numbers, Forte is due to miss a couple of games this year. But you know what? With some of Chris Johson’s scoring outputs—he might as well have been injured and on your bench. You would have often been better off starting a waiver wire scrub with upside.

We like the offense and the quarterback more in Chicago. We also prefer Forte’s weekly reliability to Johnson’s. Injuries are never predictable, and there is a fair chance Forte plays as many games or more than Johnson this season. In this case, we have to recommend drafting Matt Forte over Chris Johnson in 2013 fantasy football drafts.