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Cody Carpentier’s Top 10 Thoughts from The 2023 NFL Offseason

1. Todd Monken departs Georgia, to join the Baltimore Ravens as Offensive Coordinator

Arguably the biggest move of the offseason, came from the Baltimore Ravens when they were able to pull Todd Monken away from Georgia and bring him back to the professional ranks. Before having a heavy hand in Georgia’s success in winning back-to-back National Championships, Monken was the Offensive Coordinator for the Cleveland Browns in 2019, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2018.

For Fantasy Football purposes, the 2019 Cleveland Browns featured Baker Mayfield throwing for 3,827 yards, with both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. Oh, and I forgot to mention Nick Chubb finished 2nd in the NFL with 1,494 rushing yards. With the fall emergence of Zay Flowers, and Odell Beckham back with Monken, 2023 will be an interesting year for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

2. Elijah Moore was traded to the Cleveland Browns (March 22nd)

The BEST value in all of Fantasy Football right now is not Kendre Miller (though we love him), or Tyler Lockett (he is a pretty sick value). But it’s Elijah Moore, who is going off of the board right now 152nd overall in PPR formats, at WR54. Moore was traded to Cleveland back in March in part of a pick-swap deal that saw Moore and a 2023 3rd-round pick go to Cleveland for a 2023 2nd-round pick that was later traded to Green Bay in the Aaron Rodgers deal.

In two seasons with the Jets, Moore amassed 142 targets, 80 receptions, and 984 yards while starting just 15 games, mostly quarterbacked by Zach Wilson and Mike White. In an expanding offense in Cleveland, Moore looks to catapult himself up the rankings and stat sheet in 2023 after taking advantage of opportunities in fall camp with quarterback Deshaun Watson.

3. Kellen Moore departs Dallas to be the Offensive Coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers

The Dallas Cowboys did not re-sign Kellen Moore after the 2022 season was cut short once again by the San Francisco 49ers. Under Moore’s tutelage, the Cowboy’s offense finished 6th, 17th, 1st, and 4th in scoring over each of the last four seasons. Moore now joins the 13th-ranked Chargers offense, led by young franchise quarterback Justin Herbert.

The Chargers lost 31-30 in Round 1 of the playoffs to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022.

4. Darren Waller was traded to the New York Giants (March 15th)

My favorite fantasy-centered move of the offseason is brought to you by “Big Blue”. The Giants drafted and used Daniel Bellinger in 2022 in 12 games where he amassed just 35 targets. Outside of Saquon Barkley(76) who led the team in targets, the Giants were ravaged by injuries, with Richie James(70) and Darius Slayton(71) as the only other Giants to surpass 70 targets on the season.

Entering his age 31 seasons, Darren Waller is coming off of two shortened seasons after two breakout 1,100+ receiving seasons in Las Vegas. All reports out of New York’s camp suggest that Waller has returned to his former self, with Health and Ability. Currently going off the board as TE5 in most places, and TE7 on Sleeper, expect Waller to pay off in a huge way, on the back of a 20%+ target share in 2023.

5. The Defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles lose both OC & DC to Head Coaching jobs

Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon departed Philadelphia for brand new Head Coaching jobs this offseason. Steichen to the Indianapolis Colts, with plans to rejuvenate a franchise and build with Anthony Richardson. And Gannon to Arizona, where he plans to implement “HIS” defense after a talent-rich squad has underperformed over the last three years.

Replacing Steichen and Gannon, Brian Johnson, the Eagles Quarterback coach, and Sean Desai, a defensive assistant of the Seattle Seahawks in 2022, were hired as the new offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively.

6. D.J. Moore was traded to the Chicago Bears (March 10th)

The trade that started it all. Going into the 2023 NFL Draft cycle, many analysts were jogging the Twitter streets with thoughts that the Chicago Bears were planning to use the No. 1 overall pick on a Quarterback, and Bryce Young was going to be the guy to come in and play the Kyler Murray role, to Justin Fields‘ Josh Rosen… “Not so fast, my friend” as a famous coach would always say. The Chicago Bears were able to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick and get themselves, and their franchise quarterback an Alpha wide receiver by the name of DJ Moore.

The complete trade was D.J. Moore, No. 9 overall No. 61 overall, a first in 2024 and a second in 2025 for the No. 1 overall pick (Bryce Young)

https://twitter.com/CarpentierNFL/status/1534528702297645060?s=20

7. 2023 was The Summer of Running Back PANIC!

The 2023 free agency period looked to have a “good” group of free agent Runningbacks, featuring Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Jamaal Williams. Only three of those have signed contracts…

  • David Montgomery received $6 million per year over 3 years.
  • Miles Sanders received $6.25 million per year over 3 years.
  • Jamaal Williams received $4 million per year over 3 years.

Recently, Josh Jacobs has begun holding out of Las Vegas Raiders camp, J.K. Dobbins for the Baltimore Ravens camp, and Jonathan Taylor is looking like the ring leader, while asking for more money from the Owner of the Indianapolis Colts Jim Irsay. In the meantime, Joe Mixon received an extension and after a long wait, Saquon Barkley signed a $10 million dollar deal for 1 year with incentives attached.

  • Joe Mixon received $5.75 million per year over 2 years.

8. Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets (April 24th)

The Green Bay Packers sent Aaron Rodgers and No. 15 & 170 for No. 14, 42 & 207 in 2023, as well as a conditional 2nd-round pick in 2024 that can become a 1st if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in 2023.

“While being king of the Aaron Rodgers passing game, Davante Adams was able to secure over 40% of the team’s total WR targets during his last 4 complete seasons with Rodgers.

During 2023, without Adams, Allen Lazard only managed a 31% team WR target share, while the WR2 Romeo Doubs secured a 21% share. So the gap was reduced significantly in the absence of a true talented wideout option.” – Info via Nate Liss

9. Tom Brady officially RETIRES!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 32-18 in 3 years with Tom Brady, with a Super Bowl win in 2020 and exits in the Wild Card and Divisional Round in each of the last two years. From a record standpoint, the Bucs experienced a complete 180-degree flip, after going 17-31 from 2017-2019. But from a fantasy football standpoint, I don’t see a big change in the Wide Receiver room output category, Mike Evans has completed 9 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving.

The Buccaneers’ efficiency may fall in 2023, but the sheer need for output in garbage time will keep players like Evans, Godwin, and Rachaad White as fantasy viable options.

10. Sean Payton was traded to the Denver Broncos (January 31st)

Russell Wilson should bounce back to his old self, or at least close to what we saw in Seattle. It appears Javonte Williams will be healthy for Week 1, however, the Broncos have lost K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick over the last week to season-long injuries, and rookie Marvin Mims has missed the majority of practices with a soft tissue injury. It seems to me, the Broncos are still a season away from being a contender, but from a Fantasy Football aspect – Jerry Jeudy and Russell Wilson look likely to improve in a season of need in 2023.

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