Second year Arizona Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is an extremely polarizing prospect in fantasy football.

Ellington was a big surprise in 2013 as a sixth-round pick who looked like an explosive play waiting to happen. He gained 652 yards on only 118 carries and pulled down 39 catches for 371 more. Some well-known fantasy analysts think Ellington has gone from underrated in 2013 to over-projected (and over-drafted) in 2014. Others think drafting Ellington in the second round is acceptable because he looks like a serious breakout candidate this year.

As is nearly always the case, the truth here is not in the black and white but in the grey area in-between.

Ellington is definitely a smaller back at 5’9” and his recorded weight at the NFL Combine last year was just under 200 pounds. (Although Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians told RosterWatch at the NFL combine that Ellington was slated to put on some weight during the offseason, which he reportedly has, now at just over 210 pounds.)

The point is, Ellington is small but he’s not as slight as guys like Dri Archer or Chris Rainey – he’s more of a Tre Mason or Devonta Freeman. Arians has said that he wants to build the offense around Ellington and this has led many in the media to dub him the next Jamaal Charles. Ellington has many of the same attributes as Charles; he’s fast, has good hands, great vision and does not shy away from contact. A more fitting comparison for Ellington is probably DeMarco Murray, though.

With Ellington’s added weight, he and Murray are about the same weight and Murray is just a few inches taller and a step faster. Ellington struggled with injuries while at Clemson as Murray has throughout his NFL career. Look at Murray’s ceiling and it’s about the same for Ellington … which is nothing to sneeze at. If Murray had stayed healthy last year, he was on pace to be the league’s second-leading rusher behind LeSean McCoy.

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Ellington has a lot of positive traits and capabilities in his favor when considering his value in fantasy football for 2014. However, his negatives should give fantasy owners pause before drafting him too highly.

– Speed, Acceleration and Agility: In the NFL, speed kills and you cannot teach it. Ellington has above-average top-end speed and his ability to read blocks and accelerate incredibly quickly through holes makes him simply dangerous. Additionally, two of Ellington’s best assets are his short-area quickness and change-of-direction.

Dude can stop on a dime, change direction and turn on the boosters. His speed, acceleration and agility are what have helped him make eight explosive runs (runs of 20 yards or more) in less than 120 carries. His ability is impressive.

– Vision: Ellington is patient in waiting for his blocks to develop and he is excellent at identifying cutback lanes in the zone game. He has home-run capability but doesn’t get hemmed up in the backfield looking to hit the home run every time he carries the ball (Ahem, Chris Johnson).

– Receiving and Pass Protection Ability: Ellington was a capable and sometimes dangerous receiver while at Clemson and he has shown the same ability in the NFL. This is an important attribute as Bruce Arians favors an aggressive downfield passing attack. The only problem with Ellington’s receiving is that he had a drop rate of over 13% in 2013. While completely unacceptable, this can mostly be attributed to getting used to the NFL game. Ellington displayed soft hands while in college.

Ellington has been a willing blocker in pass protection during the preseason. Due to his lack of great size, he is sometimes susceptible to getting overpowered, but if Carson Palmer can get the ball out in a reasonable amount of time, Ellington can help keep him clean.

Ellington’s pass protection is important because it allows him to stay on the field as a three-down chess piece.

– Offensive Line: The former Clemson Tiger achieved the success he had last year with a horrendous offensive line. Their first-round pick and übertalented guard prospect Jonathan Cooper was lost for the year before the season started and both tackle positions were manned by Bradley Sowell and Eric Winston/Nate Potter. Bradley Sowell… and Nate Potter. Christ.

This year the Cardinals have Jared Veldheer, an outstanding pass and run blocker, manning the left tackle position, Bobby Massie manning the right tackle spot and Cooper is back in action. Arians had noted that Cooper has been acting like a real lazy-ass struggling to pick things up and he’s been splitting snaps with Earl Watford. With this said, Cooper is an unbelievably sick prospect, and has held his own against the likes of JJ Watt previously. Cooper will end up “winning” the left guard starting position, no doubt. If this group can get some kind of cohesion and stay healthy, Ellington has a chance to be lethal with the holes that will be open.

– Size and Injury Concerns: Ellington is tough, and as I noted before, he is not afraid of contact. That’s a quality you want to see in your first-string running back, but at his size it’s a real concern. He was always banged up during his time at Clemson with toe and ankle injuries that limited him. However, giving credit where it’s due, Ellington was only out one game in 2013 so maybe he’ll stay on the field.

– Vulturing: Maybe most concerning about Ellington is backup running back Jonathan Dwyer’s one yard touchdown run in the Cardinals’ second preseason game. (Yes, Dwyer is still in the league.) It’s unclear whether the Cardinals coaching staff was concerned about getting their feature back injured or if they didn’t think Ellington could punch it in within the red zone. At this point it’s not really clear whether or not Stepfan Taylor or Jon Dwyer are going to be the primary backup to Ellington but there is a good chance that either one could steal carries and probably touchdowns from Ellington when the Cardinals get in the red zone.

DECLASSIFIED: 2014 FANTASY OUTLOOK

Ellington has incredible potential and there is a lot to like about him but an overall ADP of 26 in traditional scoring leagues and 20 in PPR leagues is just too high.

He had 157 touches last year. Is there a chance he gets 300 or more touches this season? Absolutely. But I would not draft him ahead of other running backs like Toby Gerhart, Le’Veon Bell, Ryan Mathews or DeMarco Murray. Ellington is preferable to turds unknown commodities such as Ben Tate.

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