Running back casualties around the league continue to pile up. Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson is likely out for the next 4 weeks and C.J. Spiller is virtually done for the season. DeAngelo Williams is still all banged up. Pierre Thomas is out. Fantasy owners are losing Frank Gore for the bye week. If you need a hand you can’t help but look at Buffalo Bills RB Bryce Brown.

Let’s be honest with ourselves right now, first off. Bryce Brown is not going to save your season. He does have the opportunity to contribute as a fringe RB2 and FLEX play.

Fantasy owners might remember the glory days of Bryce Brown when he went nuts on the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys for a combined 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. But he also had 3 fumbles in that two-game stretch. He can flash and show you his tantalizing ability one game and then frustrate the hell out of you the next.

Sometimes it’s hard to properly evaluate Brown because he has such a small sample size to look at. He played one year at Tennessee, sat out a year, had about a half of a carry for Kansas State and then declared for the NFL Draft. He had a pedestrian rookie year outside of his two-game tear. He had one 115-yard game against the Bears in 2013 and then found himself shipped to Buffalo for 2014.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Bryce Brown while considering his fantasy value in Week 8 versus the Jets.

Positives

– Athleticism: There’s no denying this kid is fast. He ran a 4.32 40-yard dash and his pro day and it actually shows up on tape. His mid-range to top-end speed is blazing; linebackers and safeties consistently look to be taking bad pursuit angles trying to get him because of it. This is the absolute best trait he has. He’s also incredibly elusive. If Brown gets to the second level he’s going to burn you and get an explosive play. He seems to have decent hands but he’s not going to catch a bunch of passes like Fred Jackson.

– Vision: Brown has decent vision. He can spot a hole and make a cutback that will lead to some serious chunk yardage. His vision makes him look extra shifty in the open field. It has also been a bit of a hindrance because he appears to be constantly looking for the home run play.

– Opportunity: Short of Anthony Dixon suffering a season-ending injury jogging off the field, the Buffalo Bills injuries in the past week couldn’t have favored Brown anymore.

– The Matchup: The Jets look like a terrible fantasy matchup on paper. They’ve given up the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. But in reality they’ve given up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs in the last four weeks. Along with Rex Ryan’s chances of being the coach of the Jets head coach next year, the defense is dwindling fast.

Negatives

– Ball Control: He has none. Brown’s got a terrible case of the fumbilitis and he coughed it up 3 times in the two games that were viewed as his best. What may be worse is he appeared to have no awareness to jump on or towards the ball after coughing it up. If he puts one on the ground early, Doug Marrone is going to put him on the pine pony and let Dixon take the game over.

– Lack of Physicality: Short of the pip-squeak Dri Archer, who can barely be called a scat back, I’m not sure I’ve seen a less physical runner, especially for his size. I watched every carry I possibly could of Brown and I don’t remember seeing him break one tackle. It’s one way he’s not elusive, is through contact. Guys made sorry attempts to wrap him up with one arm from bad angles, but he almost always went down on first contact. If the offensive line doesn’t win at the point of attack, he’ll get crushed and won’t fight it. Comparatively, I’ve seen Branden Oliver – who is about 4 inches shorter and 10 pounds lighter – routinely break 2 or 3 tackles. Brown looks allergic to contact, which may be why he bounces to the outside so much. It makes him a big feast or famine back.

– Anthony Dixon/Fred Jackson: Anthony Dixon has far less upside but he seems to have the faith of the coaching staff and is much more of a north-south runner than Brown. If Dixon has early success, Brown might not get nearly the even split of carries we think he’ll have with Dixon. Fred Jackson is expected back in 4 weeks and if Brown doesn’t show he’s got the right stuff this week and the two weeks following the team’s bye, he’ll be back to the bench quickly.

– Offensive Line: The Bills continue to have a patchwork offensive line that is consistently inconsistent. Kraig Urbik looks like he will get the start at left guard instead of rookie Cyril Richardson (the coaching staff chose to bench Richardson instead of Erik Pears for some unknown reason). Seantrel Henderson has exceeded expectations by not puking everywhere but Eric Wood and Cordy Glenn have failed to play consistently well.

– Quarterback Play: The offense has certainly run smoother with Kyle Orton under center, and we’ve yet to see photos surface of Orton acting like a miserable drunk in his new surroundings in-and-around the Greater Niagara Falls region. Even with all this going for him, he’s still not playing like Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. Teams (especially the Jets) aren’t going to be afraid to put 8 in the box unless Sammy Watkins starts giving them fits, which is highly possible.

DECLASSIFIED: Bryce Brown’s Week 8 Fantasy Outlook vs. the Jets

It’s difficult to tell how much work a back coming off the bench is going to get. Doug Marrone’s seeming lack of commitment to either back isn’t very helpful. I think 10-15 touches is pretty realistic. Brown concerns me a little in daily leagues; he can be valuable but but at his low cost, I’m sure he’ll be a high-percentage ownership, en-vogue bargain pick you may be better off fading. He offers you very little extra in PPR scoring.

All factors considered, I would expect Brown to run for about 60 yards, catch one pass for 10 yards and probably not find he end zone this week. If you’re picking up Brown you’re looking for the upside as a possible flex player who has a better chance of breaking a long run or two than guys like Bishop Sankey (you’ve disappointed me Sankey) or Lorenzo Taliaferro.