DECLASSIFIED: Isaiah Crowell Week 13 Fantasy Outlook vs. Buffalo Bills

shabro headshotWhat happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Well, we’re about to find out in Week 13 when Isaiah Crowell totes the rock against the Buffalo Bills defense. The fact of the matter is, Cleveland Browns rookie running back Isaiah Crowell (known as ‘Crow’) is just a fun player to watch. He’s the most exciting Browns running back since … Trent Richardson (too soon Brownie fans?). He also happens to be one of the most exciting players in the NFL right now.

declassified Crowell

There is no doubt that Crowell possesses immense amounts of talent. The Crow was rated as the No. 1 high school running back in the country coming out of Columbus, Georgia. Naturally he went to play for the Bulldogs and went buck wild as a freshman at Georgia. Crowell got kicked off the team after getting arrested on felony weapons charges (which were later dropped).

Crowell enrolled at Division I-AA school, Alabama State, and continued to run roughshod. Crowell is an explosive back with a nose for the end zone. He looks like a bargain as an undrafted rookie. He has more touchdowns than any other rookie back (7 TDs, tied for 4th in the league) including his own rookie teammate and third-round pick Terrance West. The Crow Show is averaging 4.95 yards per carry and he’s basically split the carries with West since Minnesota bought its most recent lemon from the state of Ohio, Ben Tate, who sucks about as bad as a running back as Jerome Simpson did at wideout.

Crowell, however, is a great fit for a Cleveland team that loves to run the rock and plays at home in cold weather. Between Jordan Cameron, Josh Gordon, Terrance West and Crowell, the Browns have more talent on offense than they’ve had in years. Crowell is a shifty, powerful runner that looks like a dangerous combination of Marshawn Lynch and Shady McCoy.

If Crowell stays healthy, he has a bright future in Cleveland as part of a two-headed monster in the backfield with Terrance West. His split of touches with West is actually beneficial because he doesn’t have to take the full brunt of punishment from NFL defenses.

Crowell is that cheaper option you need in your daily league; he’s that fringe RB2 you need for your playoff run; he’s that dynasty running back that you steal now before his value shoots through the roof. I love Crowell as a player and I like his prospects for Week 13 more than most fantasy “analysts” do. (For clarification, by “analysts,” I mean fat boys who still live in their parents’ basements, posing as fantasy gurus.)

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Isaiah Crowell while considering his fantasy value in Week 13 versus the Buffalo Bills.

Crowell bounces his run outside of the left tackle and cuts it back all the way to the right side of the field. He uses a couple stiff arms along the way to get himself into the end zone. The kid has great vision and makes good decisions (on the field).

Positives

– Quickness: It’s a bit of a cliché but he’s more quick than fast. His top end speed isn’t all that impressive but he’s got great short-area explosiveness that allows him to turn the corner on outside zone runs and outrun defensive linemen and linebackers. His jump-cut is a thing of beauty! He explodes through holes quickly.

– Vision: He has great vision as a runner and he is extremely patient in waiting for and setting up his blocks. He is not only able to navigate through traffic at the line of scrimmage, but he can also exploit open space at the second level. His decision-making is excellent and you don’t catch him taking negative yards very often.

– The System/Running Style: I think he’s in a perfect system as a key cog in Kyle Shanahan’s run-heavy, zone-blocking offense. His short-area quickness and vision makes him an easy fit on a team that does a ton of zone running. With Josh Gordon back from suspension and Jordan Cameron getting healthy again, the offense should go more vertical and it will open things underneath for Crowell and West. Crowell’s running style reminds me very much of Marshawn Lynch except for one thing: he’s not going to be trucking over guys like Lynch. He does have a violent running style though and he makes defenders miss. He’s an all around fun back to watch.

– Offensive Line: This line is good. It had a big setback after center Alex Mack was lost for the year but it seems to have bounced back and the line is gaining chemistry. There are three sure things in life: Death, taxes, and Joe Thomas playing really good football. He is where it starts and stops with the Browns line. Without all-world Thomas, they’d be a mediocre line. Mitchell Schwartz has been performing well at right tackle but one guy that has been making a real difference in this team’s running game is rookie guard and third-annual RosterWatch All-Senior Bowl Roster Member Joel Bitonio. West and Crowell have benefited greatly from this O-line that is most certainly one of the best in the league.

– Red Zone Usage: He’s got 7 touchdowns on 90 carries compared to West’s 3 touchdowns on 126 carries. Who do you think Kyle Shanahan likes more in the red zone when it’s time to make some money? Shanny Jr. says Crowell’s straight cash, homie. He could be looking at double-digit touchdowns already if not for also sharing time with recently released Ben Tate who had 4 TDs despite being a shitty player ineffective as usual during his short stay in the factory of sadness.

Negatives

– Inconsistency: Crowell has yet to have a game where he’s run for over 90 yards. He’s had two multiple-touchdown games, but has also been held without a score in five. However, he’s had a minimum of 12 touches in each of the last three games since Ben Tate was cut.

– Matchup: Here’s the part about the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to running backs in the NFL and they’ve only allowed five rushing touchdowns all season. It’s the eight-worst RB matchup on the Week 13 RosterWatch Matchup Tool, and that’s a little scary for a guy you might be considering as a RB2. There is a silver lining though. The Bills defense has been giving up five yards per clip over the past four games and Jamaal Charles was four yards shy of running on them for 100 yards plus he got a touchdown. Not the ideal matchup but it’s not impossible. He’s got a good matchup against Indy in Week 14 coming up.

Time Share: He’s getting a lot more burn than earlier this season but he still has to share carries and targets with Terrance West. That’s not going to change this week.

Ball Security: Crowell showed ball-security issues to start the season which seemingly kept him on the bench, in one game putting the ball on the ground three times (although only one was recovered by the other team.) If we know anything about the Shanahans, we know that fantasy-roster-killing Shanahanigans at the RB position will be inevitable should Crowell commit a costly fumble early in any of Cleveland’s key matchups moving forward as it contends for a very unlikely AFC North title and playoff bid.

DECLASSIFIED: Isaiah Crowell’s Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

Do we get feast or famine with Crowell this week? Both the Bills and the Browns really need this game in order to make it into the postseason. There are two positive factors playing into Crowell owners’ favor:

1) The Bills aren’t exactly running a high-octane offense. The chance of them dropping 40 points or more on the Browns is low. (Yes, this means the Jets are a dumpster fire.)

2) The Browns coaching staff has shown that it will not ditch the game plan if it gets behind. They are going to run the ball and run it effectively. This game makes me a little nervous due to the fact that it’s in Buffalo and this Browns team has not dealt particularly well with success. His value in PPR leagues is about the same as in traditional scoring leagues. I like his value in daily leagues. I think now is the time to get him in dynasty before he’s viewed as a Top 10 back next year.

All factors considered, I would expect Crowell to carry the ball 13 times, gain around 65 yards on the ground, grab a pass for about 10 yards and get one rushing touchdown against a stingy Bills defense.

4 Comments

  1. CROWELL OR TRE MASON?
    EVANS OR LAFELL?

    1. Mason and Evans, GL.

  2. Thanks Luke!

    RW tweeted out week one during the game to grab this guy ASAP if you had guerrilla waivers, and to not think just do it and thank you later. Well, Thanks RosterWatch! Hands down you ask have been the best single resource for FF I’ve found (coupled with SiriusXM radio, nothing is better). I have mixed feelings that you are such a secret, I don’t want to tell anyone but my best friends because of how good you are, but I also want to see you all grow and gain more success since following your advice has tremendously benefited me in my first year playing FF. I’ll error on the side of wishing you ever increasing success and prosperity. Better and better everyday (per Ormond McGill).

    How did Cleveland manage to spot this guy? I know they jumped up to steal West away from the Ravens who desperately wanted him, but Crowell just looks so much better.

    Also I don’t know if you know our not but what are your thoughts on Fitzgerald Toussount (Ravens practice squad RB), I know it was just 2nd and 3rd stringers in the last preseason game, but he looked better than Taliaferro (and I know you all think LoZo is a jag) who was the most outstanding preseason RB in yardage. If you don’t get to it tonight, maybe I’ll ask again in the off-season.

    Thanks again RosterWatch!

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