DECLASSIFIED: John Brown Week 11 Fantasy Outlook vs. Detroit Lions

shabro headshotSometimes you see a player and you can’t place exactly what it is about them, but you just know they’re going to be special. Arizona Cardinals rookie wide receiver John Brown is one of those players. When I first saw him at the NFL Combine this year, there was something about the way he moved on the field, the way he caught the ball and the way he carried himself that made me a believer. The RosterWatch Combine Notes live from Inside Lucas Oil say as much, also. He doesn’t have the build or pedigree of a prototypical receiver that most teams are looking for but he plays like a first-rounder already. He also happens to be one of the most exciting players in the NFL to watch right now. Week 11 isn’t the worst bye week for receivers but if you’re a disappointed Steve Smith or Torrey Smith owner, or you’re without Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams or Percy Harvin this week you need to be taking a long, hard look at “Downtown” John Brown.

Declassified John Brown

While it seemingly should have no impact on his fantasy value, John Brown’s back story is important and I think it’s a part of what makes him a special player. Brown’s brother, James Walker, was another excellent football talent who was the NAIA Football Conference’s player of the year in 2009. Brown and Walker both had dreams of playing in the NFL and making enough money to take care of their mother. Walker’s dream ended abruptly after he was shot three times while sitting in the passenger seat of a car outside of a Miami night club. Walker was paralyzed and unable to communicate for nine months. The same day Brown signed with Pittsburg State, his brother passed away.

The road to the NFL has been far from short and easy for Brown. He started out at Division II Mars Hill (which might as well be on Mars for all we know), but was ruled academically ineligible after his first year. He then attended Coffeyville Community College but was cut from the team.

Pittsburg State saw serious potential in Brown and offered him a full scholarship. “Harper’s Fury” went on to set the school records at Pitt State in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He was named a Division II All-American twice. NFL coaches were intrigued by Brown’s blazing speed and ability after watching him showcase at the East-West Shrine Game and the NFL Combine. Most draft analysts saw him as a 5th-6th round player, but he ended up shocking a lot of people by going in the 3rd round to the Arizona Cardinals. Peter King said in a MMQB column that Cardinals GM Steve Keim wanted to take Brown a round earlier, and by the third, was so paranoid that Brown would be selected by another team that he had one of his scouts call Brown’s cell phone in an attempt to thwart other teams from calling. Maybe Keim didn’t peg Brown as the kind of guy to splurge on new-age features like call waiting.

Since, Brown has burst onto the scene with the Cardinals and has already become a more favored receiver than first-round pick Michael Floyd, who was supposed to be a major breakout candidate this year. Brown has as many receiving touchdowns (5) as Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and tight end John Carlson combined. He’s an explosive play waiting to happen and Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians gains more and more trust in him every week. Brown benefits a lot not only from the presence of Larry Fitzgerald on the field, but from Fitz’s tutelage off of it as well. Fitzgerald has taken Brown under his wing and is teaching him all the nuances of the game along with how to be a professional. You can’t get a much better teacher than that.

The crazy part with Brown is this is just the beginning. He is having an excellent rookie campaign on a talented team in a season where there are no less than eight rookie wide receivers blowing the doors off already high expectations. It would not be surprising at all if the Cardinals move on from Larry Fitzgerald next year due to his extraordinary price tag and cap charge ($23.6 million). Brown clearly has a huge role in the Cardinals offense this year and moving forward. He’s a big-time dynasty player and he might just be the ace up your sleeve this year in redraft. (Plus he’s got great touchdown celebrations!)

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for John Brown while considering his fantasy value in Week 11 versus the Detroit Lions.

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Brown beats the Rams safety over the top to catch a pass from Drew Stanton off of play action. Stanton overthrows him a bit and Brown does a good job of extending his body and making a tougher catch.

Positives

– Speed: In the NFL, speed kills and my God this kid is fast. He ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the Combine, secondly only to Brandin Cooks. That time is faster than Antonio Brown and DeSean Jackson and tied with T.Y. Hilton. It shows up on tape. He gets compared to Hilton a lot because of his speed in an Arians offense, but in my opinion he’s a better player with a higher ceiling. He also has one thing that I harp on all the time that is necessary in smaller receivers: short-area quickness. He can turn on a dime. His change of direction is excellent and I believe he has the chance to get even better in this department. If you watch him on curl and comeback routes, he looks just like Antonio Brown. NFL defenders shouldn’t be getting run by like they are with John Brown, but it’s happening.

– Mental Game: For a guy that got dinged on academics he seems to have a really good grasp on the mental part of the game. Based on the variation of routes he has run and his playing time, it appears that he has digested the playbook and understands his role in Bruce Arians system. He has great awareness on the field and has the intelligence to cheat secondary players.

– Toughness: More of an intangible, but the guy is tough as nails. Some might mistakenly think of him as more of a finesse receiver because he’s fast and quick enough to consistently limit contact downfield. However, he’s not afraid to go across the middle and he’ll take a hit and keep moving. In spite of his stature he can break some tackles.

– Route Running: He runs crisp routes and he can seemingly run every part of the route tree. He’s quick in and out of his breaks. He was seen as a guy that would have trouble releasing off the line of scrimmage in the NFL. I think he has done well in this department partially due to how many bunch formations Arians likes to run.

– Quarterback Play: Carson Palmer was good for John Brown but after his most recent ACL injury, Brown will be catching the ball from journeyman Drew Stanton. Stanton has a lot of ability but hasn’t had much of a chance to ever be the guy. Bruce Arians has full confidence in Stanton, and Stanton is a player Arians specifically brought with him to the desert. He may be a slight step down from Palmer, but he’s one of the better backups in the league. One of his first passes against the Rams he looked for Brown and connected on a 48 yard bomb. Stanton is no Andrew Luck but remember Arians made Kelly Holcomb look like Jim Kelly for a half of a season.

– Hands: There were concerns about his ability to haul in the ball at the pro level because he has incredibly small hands (8 ½’’), and because many draft writers and analysts are complete donkeys. It hasn’t been a problem for Brown in the NFL so far. He attacks the ball when catching it. Not a body catcher like Mike Wallace.

– Coaching: Have I mentioned Bruce Arians in this column yet? Bruce Arians coaches up wide receivers as well as Kevin Colbert drafts them. Look at his track record: Nate Washington, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and T.Y. Hilton. There is no doubt that Arians knows how to get the best out of late round gems. In training camp, Arians had this to say, “I’ve been through this so many times with small school, smaller receivers that are fast. A lot of guys like them 6-2, 220 that can’t run. I like those little fast guys.” Arians is fearless in the vertical passing game and will continue to have Stanton take shots down field, probably to Brown.

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Brown shows off his deep speed on this pass and just runs past everyone as Carson Palmer lobs him one.

Negatives

– Size: Not a huge guy. He’s going to have some issues with contested balls. He can still do work against bigger cornerbacks though. He faced #DraftTwitter darling and Senior-Bowler Pierre Desir twice in college and ate his lunch. Just don’t expect to see Kelvin Benjamin-style highlights when you turn on his tape.

– Inconsistency: He’s not the most consistent guy right now so his fantasy value in Week 11 is a little bit dependent on how the game develops. He has some incredibly explosive plays (highlighted in both GIFs) but he can get washed out of the game for long stretches too.

– Matchup: The Week 11 matchup is what concerns me most of all about Brown’s possible production this week. The Detroit Lions defense has given up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL. That’s a problem. However, last week the Dolphins’ Mike Wallace had a really good outing against them and even Jarvis Landry got seven catches for 53 yards. Arians isn’t going to dial down the passing game against this aggressive defense but if Stanton is getting hammered, Brown’s value is clearly going to take a hit. Darius Slay or Rashean Mathis is going to line up against Brown and neither of them is Patrick Peterson, who local beat writers said couldn’t cover Brown all through training camp.

DECLASSIFIED: John Brown’s Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

Are we going to see John Brown from the Cowboys game (who only had two receptions for 10 yards) or will we see the John Brown from the Rams and Eagles games (who had splash plays against both teams)?

It’s tough to say but I would lean towards the latter. The Cardinals running game is decent but not the focal point of the offense. The Cardinals are at home in this game and there is something special going on with this team. They were expected to take a big step back after all the free agent losses and injuries suffered but they’ve actually made a huge leap forward. If you’re a Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, or Steve Smith owner, Downtown John Brown could be a good pickup this week as a WR2 or flex. His value in PPR leagues is about the same as in traditional scoring leagues. I think he’s got a big future in dynasty leagues.

All factors considered, I would expect Brown to grab five balls, gain around 60 yards receiving and given the fact that the game is at home in Arizona I think he gets another touchdown.

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