There is no more polarizing figure in the NFL right now than Johnny F’n Football. Most of the time, fans, coaches and scouts either love the guy for his talent and bravado or hate him for his unorthodox play and party-boy attitude. Whether you think he’s the next great hope for the Browns or the next in a line of quarterback busts (see Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy, Brady Quinn, Charlie Frye and Tim Couch), there is no denying the future of the former Heisman Trophy winner is intriguing. His failure or success has enormous implications for the Browns, their 2014 playoff hopes, their long-term future, and the prospects of fantasy owners for this year’s playoffs.

Johnny Football is available in 76% of leagues right now. Browns head coach Mike Pettine had stubbornly refused to name Manziel the starter, despite the fact that veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer has thrown one touchdown on the Browns last 29 offensive drives. Pettine is now ready to accept what we’ve known all along: Brian Hoyer is what he has always been. An arguably high-end backup who can start for a stretch of games. Hoyer is probably one of the best backups in the league, but he’s not the Browns future. He was a placeholder.

If you don’t know Johnny Manziel’s backstory by now you’ve clearly been living under a rock. It’s a credit to Browns General Manager Ray Farmer that the Browns got Manziel with the 22nd overall pick in the 2014 draft. The Browns of old would’ve easily jumped up to a top 3 spot in order to grab the dynamic QB. He caused an incredible amount of controversy in the offseason with his off-the-field antics. From suspicious pictures with rolled-up blow-caine bills to partying on inflatable ducks, the rookie quarterback did a great job of stirring the pot all summer. Manziel might not have made an impact on the field early on, but he has people talking about the Browns more than ever in recent history.

Manziel is a lightning-rod for criticism, and praise. The Browns are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they might be in a better position if they’d started Manziel two games ago. His level of success or failure over the final three games of the season will be a big indicator of how the Browns 2015 season will go. Manziel’s first start will be even more fascinating than usual due to the fact that he will be taking on the Bengals in a crucial game that could lead the Browns out of the AFC North basement they’ve been dwelling in for decades.

I feel about the same about Manziel as NFL Films guru Greg Cosell. I think it’s hard to tell how well his game is going to translate to the NFL. Do teams shut him down early on? Does he have early success like RGIII but get derailed by injuries? Can the Browns continue focusing on a heavy run game and utilize Johnny Football’s improvisational skills while building the defense (a la the Pete Carroll Seahawks)?

Whatever happens, all eyes are going to be on Johnny Football. We might be talking about him next year as a top 10 sleeper or as nothing more than a streaming option.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Johnny Manziel while considering his fantasy value in Week 15 versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

Johnny just being Johnny. He sees a running lane open to his left and takes off. Tight end Ryan Taylor doesn’t get a chance to complete his route before Johnny takes off. The play obviously ends well but it makes you wonder if he’ll have the patience to operate a pro-style offense.

Positives

– Arm Talent: I’m going to be cliché here and say he can make all the throws. When he throws deep he doesn’t have too many lame ducks. He’s got better arm strength than Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles but he can’t exactly rip it with ease like Derek Carr. He can put touch on his balls so look for Josh Gordon to get some back-shoulder fades. I will say, I think he has a little bit of Ben Roethlisberger syndrome (at least the pre-Todd Haley variety) because he seems to throw with the most precision while on the move and improvising.

– Offensive Line: I said it a few weeks ago when breaking down Isaiah Crowell, this offensive line is one of the best in football right now. Imagine if it had center Alex Mack still in there. The offensive line for Johnny Football is more important than most people realize. He is an improvising quarterback with great running skills but if you watch his tape at A&M, more often than not he had a clean pocket for more time than he’ll ever get in the NFL. Tackles Joe Thomas and Mitchell Schwartz will have to not only pass protect but be ready to keep his running lanes clean the same way guys like Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews did at A&M.

– Playmaking Ability: All you have to do is go to YouTube and you can see the dynamic playmaking ability this kid has. You don’t win the Heisman as a freshman without making some jaws drop. Everybody knows he can run but what he impresses me more with his ability to extend the play. He has a tendency to keep his eyes downfield and wait for routes to develop. His receivers should talk to Antonio Brown and Hines Ward who have made a living out of their quarterback’s ability to freelance.

– Weapons: While I thought he should’ve started weeks ago this week is as good as any due to tight end Jordan Cameron returning from injury and the fact that Josh Gordon is getting into the swing of things after his long suspension. Terrance West and the Crow can be good outlets in the passing game.

– Run Game: The run game is usually pretty strong and should be excellent against a Bengals defense that lost Vontaze Burfict for the year and got absolutely decimated by Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers left side of the offensive line (The left side of the Browns offensive line is far better). The effective running game will get the Bengals biting hard on play action and playing right into the Browns’ hand.

– Coaching and Scheme: Kyle Shanahan is the brain behind this offense. Remember, this is the guy that made RG3 (yes busted up, hot mess, career-ruining RG3) look so good as a rookie that idiots “pundits” were putting him in the Hall of Fame after his rookie season. Shanny Jr. schemes incredibly well for running quarterbacks. There’s a ton of misdirection and movement (window dressing) that turns simple zone runs and read options into big gainers. He’ll keep things simple for Manziel and put him in a lot of high percentage situations.

Negatives

– Inconsistency: When you watch the tape on JFF you get Good Johnny and Bad Johnny. Good Johnny makes incredible plays on the move, throws with touch, can drive the ball from the pocket, and shows the ability to read fronts and coverages. Bad Johnny won’t work within the constraints of an offense, underthrows his receivers due to throwing off his back foot, holds the ball long enough to do his taxes, and gets easily confused by more complex defenses. The problem is, you never can tell which Johnny you’re going to get. Sometimes he has trouble throwing to open receivers in a clean pocket. Johnny often plays in Bizzaro World and it’s almost as if managing an offense is just too undesirable to him because he wants to freelance and do things the JFF way. He thrives on the chaos. The only silver lining is that the brighter the lights, the more he seems at ease. The Browns playoff hopes rest on his shoulders this week and 48 percent of the U.S, will be receiving the game as their regional CBS broadcast.

– Size: He’s on the shorter side (about six-foot even), and the only quarterbacks as short or shorter than Manziel starting in the NFL are Russell Wilson and Drew Brees (those guys don’t play so bad). He’s about 210 pounds with some sand (or possibly blow) in his pockets but he’s got a thicker frame than Teddy Bridgewater. I feel like height can be overcome but his overall size is a concern because he’s going to take a lot of hits. I’m not really worried about his toughness, I’m worried for his ACLs.

– Matchup: The Bengals defense is tougher against the pass than they are against the run. Its pass coverage has been decent minus the long bomb to Martavis Bryant, but the problem is they can’t get a consistent pass rush. Geno Atkins has been getting healthier each week and if he goes bananas against center Nick McDonald, Johnny’s in for a rough outing.

– Playing Style: You: ‘Wait a minute Shabs, didn’t you just say you liked his playmaking ability? How is playing style a negative and a positive?’ Me: There’s a lot of in’s, a lot of out’s, a lot of what-have-you’s. Johnny’s playing style is absolutely a negative and a positive at the same time. The same ability to extend the play is going to get him killed or get the ball stripped. I like the way he runs because he’s elusive and slippery but he was running against college players. Guys like Carlos Dunlap, Terrell Suggs or Luke Kuechly are going to take his head off if he tries to run around for seven seconds.

– Knucklehead Factor: Not a huge deal regarding his fantasy value over the next three weeks but you have to wonder what kind of chickens are going to come home to roost over the next offseason. I’d consider him a dynasty must-own if I wasn’t so worried he that he is going to sabotage himself over the summer.

DECLASSIFIED: Johnny Football’s Week 15 Fantasy Outlook

Any way you cut it, this is going to be an incredible matchup to watch. In redraft leagues I don’t think he’s your #1 streaming option but if you have limited options he’s not going to kill you. Where I really love his value is in daily leagues. Currently the only better value at the QB position in week 15 is Matt Ryan. True to his signature celebration, Johnny Football could make you some money!

All factors considered, I would expect JFF to throw for about 200 yards and 2 TDs. I think he’ll run for another 75-80 yards and run in another touchdown. You can go ahead and count on a pick too.

Writer’s Note: This is my last Declassified column for the 2014 regular season. Next week I’ll be putting out a Declassified Debrief – a report card of sorts covering the prospects I wrote about this year.

I just wanted to take a moment and say thank you to all of you who have read my column this year, listened to me on SiriusXM, and followed me on Twitter. It has been an absolute pleasure writing for RosterWatch and I’m really excited for a lot of the new things we’ll be working on for the offseason and the 2015 season. Thanks for reading and listening to the best fantasy football and NFL draft outfit in the business.