This was supposed to be a breakout fantasy (and real-world) year for tight ends Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed. Rudolph has been underwhelming, Ertz has performed well (as predicted by RosterWatch.com) but Eifert and Reed have had their breakout seasons stalled by injuries.

Eifert’s elbow is in shambles after his cringe-worthy dislocation but Reed has suffered a hamstring injury that he should be able to come back from relatively soon. The problem with hamstrings is once they’re injured they seem to flare up throughout the season (see Roddy White in 2013 or Miles Austin for his entire life).

From the early ashes of Reed’s sophomore season in the league, the phoenix of Niles Paul has risen. OK, maybe that’s pushing it. But Niles Paul is an intriguing pickup in a lot of leagues, especially if you had come into 2014 dependent on Reed.

Paul came in to the league as a fourth-round receiver out of Nebraska with a boat load of question marks surrounding him.

Is this kid fast or quick enough to get separation at the next level?

Is he mature enough?

Are his hands big enough?

Can he run crisp routes?

Was his lack of production in college from bad quarterback play or is he just not that good?

And so on.

Paul’s first three years in the league were non-descript as he had a grand total of 14 catches for 228 yards and one touchdown. His second year in the league, former Skins coach Mike Shanahan had already began to convert him to tight end a la Desmond Clark. The transition was a slow one as Paul had difficulty with lining up in attached formations and his blocking was poor.

However, Paul now seems to have grown into the role and at least can do solid work as a receiving tight end. He doesn’t have to worry quite as much about blocking thanks to blocking tight end Logan Paulsen.

If Paul kept up his pace from week 1 and 2 he would project to grab 96 catches and 1,480 yards and eight touchdowns! There’s no way that Paul will put up those kinds of numbers but he has – and will continue – to fill in admirably when Jordan Reed is out. Crazily enough, even after his Sunday performance he is available in 96% of leagues!

How much can Paul help your fantasy team during Week 3? Let’s take a look at the positives and negative of this week’s matchup versus the Eagles.

Positives

– The System: Jay Gruden was brought in to Washington because he was known as a QB-coddler for his kid-gloves approach to Andy Dalton – just the type of coach and leader Redskins owner Dan Snyder wanted on board to coddle and pander to his golden boy, RG3.

As an offensive mind, though, Gruden ran a lot of two tight end sets in Cincinnati and it looks like he’s going to do more of the same in Washington. Jordan Reed (receiving TE) and Logan Paulsen (blocking TE) were the poor man’s version of Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham (Gresham is a far better receiver than Paulsen). Once Reed got hurt, Paul stepped in immediately and fit right into his role. Paul is not quite as explosive and his upside isn’t as high as Reed but he fits into Gruden’s system well.

– The Mismatch: Niles Paul, like other converted wide receivers, is pretty athletic. He can outrun most linebackers and he can use his size and physicality against smaller nickel/slot corners. He is tough over the middle and that’s where he’ll do his damage.

– Security Blanket: Kirk Cousins had to come in for RG3 after his foot decided to stay in FedEx Field while the rest of his body kept moving. Cousins performed well against the Jacksonville Jaguars and there are some that suggest he fits the Jay Gruden system better than Griffin. When Cousins comes up against the Eagles on Sunday he’s going to face a vastly better defense and quarterbacks typically turn to their tight ends as security blankets (especially when the two players had developed chemistry over the last two years taking second-team reps together). It was clear in Week 2 that Cousins favored Paul a lot.

Negatives

– The Eagles defense: The Redskins thrived against a weak Jaguars defense but the Eagles have a much more capable defense that could throttle down a potentially potent Redskins offense. The Eagles have given up the 9th fewest fantasy points against tight ends so far, which doesn’t bode well for Paul. Linebacker Mychal Kendricks is capable of covering Paul as is Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins

– Jordan Reed’s health: You hate to pin your fantasy projections on a guy’s poor health but if Jordan Reed is out, Paul is worth a start; if Reed is in the lineup don’t even bother. The good news is that, as Bengals OC, Jay Gruden was not as cryptic as some coaches (ahem, Belichik), and it seems he acts the same way now that he is a head coach. Gruden made it clear that if Reed didn’t practice by Wednesday he would not be playing. Hamstrings are tricky and they can become a reoccurring injury.

DECLASSIFIED: Niles Paul’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook vs. the Eagles

It’s crucially important to check the injury report for the Bengals throughout the week. If Reed is down again in week 3, Paul has TE1 upside. This season so far, Paul has put up better fantasy points than Greg Olson, Vernon Davis and Rob Gronkowski.

Two to three weeks from now, Paul might not be worth owning but if you don’t have a Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas he could be worth streaming for a couple weeks. All factors considered, I would expect Paul to pull down 6 receptions and between 80-85 yards plus a late touchdown.

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