Overrated Fantasy Players in 2013
The Trashman, Rosterwatch.com

Overvalued

These players are being talked up as if they were top tier players at their respective positions. We know better though.

Quarterback:

Andy Dalton QB, Cincinnati Bengals: I’m confused as to why Dalton is being drafted before guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. His only real weapon is A.J. Green, though he’s no slouch, and he’s a spotty passer who isn’t sure of his arm. He had 17 coverage sacks last season, which was the highest in the league. He holds onto the ball too long, and that’s going to hurt him. Pass on big red unless you absolutely must take him.

 
Alex Smith QB, Kansas City Chiefs: Supposedly, new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coveted Alex Smith from afar while he was in Philadelphia. I find that terribly hard to believe. Smith has only once in his seven-year career topped 3,000 yds passing, resting on a superior running game and a defense that rarely let his team get too far behind in San francisco. The running game should be strong in Kansas City, but the defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. That and the Chiefs are in the same division as Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, both of whom are prone to put up some points. I fear it’s going to be tougher sledding for Smith than many think.

Other overvalued quarterbacks:

Sam Bradford, Rams: He has everything he needs to succeed in St. Louis, but always tends to get in the way of his own self

Nick Foles, Eagles: People are talking like this kid is Tom Brady or something. He more resembles another former Patriot, Drew Bledsoe when he went to Dallas.

Running Back:

Ryan Mathews RB, San Diego Chargers: Different year, same old song and dance. Team sources indicate that Mathews is going to be the bellcow before the season, only to change their tune whenever they realize it’s the same injury prone runner we’ve all grown accustomed to. Danny Woodhead is new to town, and the Chargers want to dance. A running back by committee approach is on the horizon, and Mathews will disappoint yet again.

 

Ronnie Hillman RB, Denver Broncos: Yes Ronnie Hillman is listed atop the depth chart at running back in Denver, but chances are he won’t stay there. Rookie Montee Ball is rising fast, and by all indications he’s a better first and second down back. Hillman is smallish and a good receiver, a good fit for third downs, but he’s not the lead back that the Broncos need and he goes down way too easily on first contact.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis RB, Cincinnati Bengals: The Law Firm  will lose more cases than win them this season. He’s slow and doesn’t seem to have much fight in him these days. The new hotness in Cincinnati is Giovani Bernard, and the hierarchy will shift accordingly.

Other overrated RBs:

Chris Johnson, Titans: His offensive line is stout, but the Titans wouldn’t have brought in Shonn Greene if they didn’t feel like they were lacking somewhere. Johnson will  get yardage, but make no mistake, Greene will snipe touchdowns.

Darren McFadden, Raiders: Every year is going to be “his year”, and every year he gets hurt, literally. Every year. Ride him until the wheels come off, but don’t be surprised when that’s in week six.

Wide Receiver:

Wes Welker WR, Denver Broncos: Welker is still a great receiver, but there are just too many mouths to feed in Denver. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker cover too much ground and are better red-zone targets than Welker. He’s currently being drafted ahead of guys like Torrey Smith and Danny Amendola, who I think will pick up right where Welker left off in New England and subsequently outperform him in fantasy.

 

Brian Hartline WR, Miami Dolphins: It’s true that Hartline amassed over a thousand yards last season, but it’s also true that he needed top-20 targets numbers to do it. There weren’t really that many people for Tannehill to throw the ball to. Now that Mike Wallace is in the fold, I expect Hartline’s numbers to decrease significantly. Well maybe except for touchdowns. He only had one of those all season, so he can’t do much worse in that department. Right now he’s being drafted above guys like Vincent Brown, Golden Tate, and Ryan Broyles. That’s too high.

 

Larry Fitzgerald WR, Arizona Cardinals: Fitzgerald’s quarterback situation has improved considerably compared to the last several years, but that still doesn’t justify making him the seventh receiver off the board in most leagues. Carson Palmer is good, but he could come off very pedestrian like behind that suspect O-line, leaving Fitzgerald with his hands everywhere but on footballs. And don’t forget about Michael FLloyd, who is going to command targets as well. Fitz will have a resurgence, but it will be less impressive than you think.

Other overrated WRs:

Stevie Johnson, Bills: Johnson is a lock to get you eight to nine points a game, but it seems like that’s been his ceiling as of late. Nagging injuries, and new blood in the receiving corps don’t help matters.

Miles Austin, Cowboys: This is Dez’s team now. Austin could end up being pretty serviceable, but don’t go out of your way to draft him until the later rounds.

Hakeem Nicks, Giants: Nicks has the injury bug, and Rueben Randle is a much better value at where he can be had in the draft.

 

Tight Ends:

Jermichael Finley TE, Green Bay Packers: Finley is a physical specimen of intimidating proportions, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to get the ball often. It’s already been observed that he’s not getting many targets this preseason, and with James Jones, Jordy Nelson (pre-injury), and Randall Cobb all vying for targets, I don’t see the tight end’s chances improving greatly. I would choose Owen Daniels, and Brandon Myers, both of whom are being drafted after Finley, before the former Longhorn.

 

Brandon Myers TE, New York Giants: A lot of people are high on Myers after his 800 yard, four-TD season with Oakland last year. It’s tempting to follow suit, But Myers was the failsafe for a quarterback on a bad team with inconsistent options, not some stud tight end. Eli Manning has plenty of options in New York, and Myers is about fourth on the list behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. Don’t expect him to venture into top tight end territory.

 

Other overrated tight ends:

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: The volume of throws going his way can almost fool you into thinking he’s worth his salt. He’s not

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals: I like him a little more than Pettigrew, but it’s the same story here, plus now there’s Tyler Eifert to worry about.