Fantasy Football: What to Expect From Chris Johnson in 2013
Matt Ogaard, RosterWatch.com Featured Fantasy Analyst
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Titans RB Chris Johnson is a very big question mark coming into the 2013 NFL season.

While some people believe he will “boom” because of a much-improved offensive line in Tennessee, there are others who are very wary of the idea. This year, with former Jets starter Shonn Greene in the backfield as well, it brings me back to 2008 when CJ and Lendale White were splitting carries. CJ would often hit the big plays and get to around the five-yard-line, all for Lendale White (the “power back”) to pound it in for the six fantasy points.

Now, I don’t believe Shonn Greene will be stealing 15 TD’s like Lendale did, but I do see him stealing anywhere from five to eight. That being said, the Titans are supposedly moving towards a run-first offense this year, and one that will be predicated on outside-zone principles that fans have seen CJ have his most fantasy success operating under.

Since 2009, when CJ got 358 carries and racked up 2,006 yards, his carry numbers have dropped significantly. I believe if he can rack up 300 carries, he could hit around 1500-1600 yards in 2013.

Fun Fact : The Titans are 19-4 when CJ gets 22 or more carries in a game.

With the additions of free agent OG Andy Levitre, rookie OG Chance Warmack, and rookie center Brian Schwenke (a RosterWatch favorite from Senior Bowl week), I think the Titans have greatly improved their O-line, possibly back to at least 2008 form. CJ clearly suffers when his O-line doesn’t get a good first push, causing him to create too much on his own and pout when when getting shut down. If his O-line is able to get a good first push, CJ will be able to use his speed to break through the holes and dash into zone lanes.

An average of 4.5 YPC is nothing to laugh at. For reference, Arian Foster averaged 4.1 YPC but had 75 more carries than CJ. I believe with CJ, it’s all about his workload because the long runs will come as long as the Titans keep feeding him.

You also have to think about injuries. CJ has only missed one game in his entire career, and that was because in 2008 they had the division locked up in Week 17—a worthless week for fantasy purposes, anyway.

If QB Jake Locker can improve, that should also help CJ greatly. Chris Johnson’s current ADP is 2.06, which is about where I would take him in 2013 redraft leagues. I believe we will see a 1500-yard, 10 TD season which should put him towards the top for RB fantasy points.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Shonn Greene.