After the first three rounds of most drafts, you are forced to decide between players that come with noticeable risk. Most of these players fall into two categories: 1) Top 15 fantasy players over the past three seasons that have been hurt in consecutive years; and 2) Players that have disappointed for at least two seasons; but flashed significant upside in spurts.
James Conner, RB- Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 60/ Late 5th Round)
In 2018 James Conner finished as the RB5 overall, during Le’Veon Bell‘s holdout season. Conner entered 2019 with a lot of optimism and was a first-round fantasy pick in many high stakes leagues. Drafters excused his six missed games, presumably because he displayed difference-making upside. In 2019 Conner missed another six games, but this time finished as the RB31, safely calling him a bust for fantasy. Reports are that The Steelers will draft an RB in April, but the more important question RosterWatch is asking; is WHEN will the Steelers draft an RB. That will tell us more about how we can reasonably project this backfield.
The Steelers do not have a first-round pick. They own:
2nd Round (49th)
3rd Round (102nd)
4th Round (124, 135)
With other needs on the Steelers, RosterWatch believes one of the fourth round picks could be the sweet spot for them to take an RB. This just means another player in the mix for backup duties behind Conner. We believe James Conner will get the first crack at the majority share in the Steeler backfield. If Pittsburgh takes an RB it may be more of an indictment on how they feel about the players behind Conner.
D.J. Chark, WR Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP 49/ Early 5th Round)
The early draft market has dropped Chark’s ADP about 13 spots over the last 10 days. This is likely a reaction to The Jag’s trading Nick Foles to Chicago. RosterWatch Nation is not going to let that wobble us. The data says that Chark’s performance was actually better with Gardner Minshew. We are happy to take the extra round of value on DJ Chark.
DeVante Parker, WR Miami Dolphins (ADP 66/ Mid 5th Round)
Parker is another good player that comes with uncertainty. His ADP has dropped more than a full round over the last 10 days. Perhaps the market is waking up to the fact that Preston Williams and Albert Wilson will be coming back in 2020? Maybe early drafters are realizing Miami could have a rookie QB under center week 1? RosterWatch believes this is a simple market correction. As good as Parker was in 2019, he was being over-drafted at his former early 4th round price. Given the whole history of DeVante Parker in fantasy football, he makes for a fine WR3 with upside at his new ADP. That could prove difficult if you go RB heavy early on. If you do want to have a rock-solid WR core with Parker as your WR3, RosterWatch is targeting RBs like Kerryon Johnson, David Montgomery, and Kareem Hunt as your RB3 given how early best ball drafts are falling.