Last Minute Draft Advice: Devine Ozigbo, Zack Moss, Todd Gurley

Last Minute Draft Advice: Leonard Fournette, Zack Moss, Todd Gurley
by Alan Seslowsky

Many of you will be drafting our season-long fantasy football teams during the first week of September. RosterWatch has been providing actionable intelligence for our readers and listeners all offseason long. Below are a few things to keep in mind as you get into your draft rooms this season.

The Jacksonville Backfield

The Jaguars released Leonard Fournette this week and most of the fantasy world was “shocked.” Loyal followers of Rosterwatch had boots on the ground information that our co-founder, Byron Lambert provided over 2 weeks prior to the news. Byron had reported that Fournette was going to be part of a committee of runners at best, and that being waived was in play. The move leaves the door open for Chris Thompson to be a viable PPR play late in your draft. The draft market is gravitating to 2019 5th round rookie Ryquell Armstead as the early-down option, but Armstead has again been placed on the COVID-19 list as of Friday September 4th. On the Rosterwatch podcast #280 our co-founder Alex Dunlap talked with Evan Silva. Both identified 2019 waiver wire claim Devine Ozigbo as the sharp pivot play in the Jacksonville backfield. 

 

Drafts “Traps”

Every year there are “traps” at different parts of the draft. We define a “trap” as a part of the draft ADP that pushes players up because of position scarcity who are clearly less talented than players going after the ‘trap” players. In 2020 the third and fourth round is loaded with trap players. Leonard Fournette, previous to his release, is the perfect example of a “trap” player. If you follow the Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet’s three simple rules and do not bastardize the sheet, you will avoid traps.  

Todd Gurley is another player that could be a trap. On paper, Gurley looks like the lead runner on an Atlanta offense that projects to score points. Referring again to RosterWatch podcast #280, special guest Evan Silva expressed concerns that Gurley’s knee issue is a bigger concern than the draft market believes. He sighted the artificial turf in Atlanta, which could elevate the risk of injury. Drafting running backs in the first two rounds will let you shop for WRs in the third and early fourth round. There will be viable RBs in the fifth round and later like Antonio Gibson, Cam Akers, Kerryon Johnson, and Ronald Jones. 

 

The Buffalo RBs

All offseason, Devin Singletary has had a top-five round ADP. Back in March, he was routinely going in round three. After the real NFL draft, when the Bills drafted third-round rookie Zack Moss, Singletary dropped to round four. August training camp buzz is that Zack Moss has been a standout and could have an immediate role that consists of the high-value touches. Pro Football Focus had Zack Moss as their RB1 in this loaded class. RosterWatch is still exercising caution on Moss before the eighth round. Moss’ TD upside could be limited by QB Josh Allen‘s ability to score rushing TDs. Josh Allen has had an eye-popping 17 rushing TDs in his first two years. Even if we regress that number to 4.5, it is still significant enough to cap Moss’ TD equity. Moss is a fine play at ADP, but not a player RosterWatch is jumping the field to make sure to draft. Singletary is a fade in the fifth due to his low TD equity projection but he is viable in the late sixth round or later. Of the two, we prefer Moss at his current value and feel there should not be the disparity in ADP that exists as 2020 draft season is reaching its conclusion. 

75 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By robert.ambersley@yahoo.com

    Alan and RW nation. I avoided the 3rd round RB trap that is described in the video with TG as example. Drafting at 9 in 10 team league I got Mixon and JJ. Was rewarded when the league gifted me Godwin at 29 overall than I got A Rob. Even if they hadn’t messed up Thielen , Kupp, and a few other high end WR were there. Hope it works but I’m satisfied to have used the strategy. I didn’t worry about RB until much later and took Kerryon for some depth.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Robert. Well played. Working ADP and the draft board is a beautiful art when done to plan!

  2. ↓ Post By ted.emerson

    Dudes, feeling a bit thin at RB and QB after last night’s draft. What do you think?
    Mixon, Julio, Golladay, Conner, AJ Brown, Devante Parker, AJ Green, Montgomerey, Ceedee, Chris Thompson, Hurst, Jonnu, Baker, and Goff
    Waited until the very end to get TEs and QBs, but people were mad reaching for RBs that I just sat back and grabbed solid WRs. Tried to zig while others zagged but did I go too far?

    1. ↓ Post By ted.emerson

      Forgot to say I did get Chris Thompson as well.

      1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

        your team looks great.

    2. ↓ Post By gbalduf@yahoo.com

      What was your draft position?

    3. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Ted, I see your point, but I think you did well. Taking value over need can work out but you should prey on the team needs of your opponents. Good luck my brother!

  3. ↓ Post By robert.ambersley@yahoo.com

    Ted I don’t think anything’s wrong with your RB. Mixon snd conner should be must start every week. Maybe get an upside QB from Baker. Him and Goff kinda same, I think RW likes Goff more. Maybe you can get Minshew or Burrow and see if they hit.

  4. ↓ Post By Longlooper

    Ozigbo, Jerrick McKinnion and Damien Hariss, Pollard, Kelly and Boston Scott are all available to pick up off waivers. I would drop Waller. We don’t have to start a tightend. I am looking at RB upside:
    Hopkins
    Theilen
    McLaurin
    Beckham
    Barkley
    David Johnson
    Zach Moss
    Johnathon Taylor

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Sweet squad! I’d keep Waller over those RBs-

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Longlooper. If it is PPR I think Waller is a HODL (Hold on for dear life) I understand why it is tempting to chase RB upside, but not at that cost for now

  5. ↓ Post By paulbwaiter@gmail.com

    Dynasty Q. trade away josh Kelley for a 2021 2nd? Projected early to mid pick. SF 12 team PPR. my team is decent but kind of short on RBs. Would losing Kelley hurt too much in spite of that return!?!? Thanks RW.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’d keep him and see what happens

  6. ↓ Post By MikeVegas

    I am in a 12 man superflex league, snake drafting 2, 23, and 26…

    Do you recommend RB, RB, QB or RB, QB, RB? I know it depends on the cheat sheet but do you have a preference? With either of those 2 scenarios my wide receivers will be middling.

    1. ↓ Post By mrgunz

      at 23 I doubt a top tier QB will be available..

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Mike Vegas: How did it work outt?

  7. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

    Anyone have any last minute hesitation on Kamara at the 4th pick???

    1. ↓ Post By mrgunz

      I have Kamara at 5 on my board: CMAC, barkley, Zeke, CEH, Kamara..

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I do

      1. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

        Care to expound on that??? LOL. Have the 4th pick in my last ppr draft of the day tonight!

  8. ↓ Post By jrcs851315

    Is James Robinson worth a stash just incase? Would be dropping Justin jackson for him (ozigbo and Thompson not available in competitive 14 tm league)

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yes — close call on dropping JJ for him—- but I’d probably take a crack

  9. ↓ Post By christopherdavidhui@gmail.com

    I have the 4th overall pick in a full point ppr and an keeping Kamara in the 8th round. McCaffrey, Saquon and Zeke will go in front of me. Derrick Henry is being kept by someone else.

    Am I getting cute thinking I want Dalvin Cook at 4? Or do I take Edwards-Helaire?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Either is fine, tough call. Safe choice is Cook — make sure to get Mattison late 🙂

  10. ↓ Post By pritchardbpjp@charter.net

    Thanks again for a great article. Finished up a 12-team PPR draft last night with 2 keepers and 18 rounds. QB/3RB/3WR/TE/Flex/D/K… makes for the need for a bit more depth. Keepers were Henry/Drake. Draft: 1.Godwin
    2.Hunt
    3. A.Robinson
    4.Chark
    5. D. Watson
    6. Cooks
    7. M. Jones
    8. C. Thompson
    9. C. Herndon
    10. A. Miller
    11. C. Edmonds
    12. D. Jackson
    13. D. Jones (QB)
    14. D. Knox
    15. Rams D
    16. Koo
    17. J. Hill
    18. J Samuels

    Give myself a B+.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yessir!

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Damn! a mega monster squad.

  11. ↓ Post By Incognito

    Good morning,

    Which rookie QB do you think will have the most dramatic fantasy impact this year? WHo would you target in the later rounds?
    thanks

    1. ↓ Post By mrgunz

      Burrow he’s starting week 1

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Burrow

  12. ↓ Post By Moosetermind

    Raiders traded Bowden and released Riddick today. Has to bode well for Jacobs in the passing game. Thoughts on moving him up a bit in my rankings? Or should I not bastardize the cheat sheet

  13. ↓ Post By gutsman004

    High quality, league winning content as always.

  14. ↓ Post By Rusty

    Just drafted. How’s my squad?
    12 team 0.5 ppr

    QB: Brees
    WR: Golladay
    WR: Sutton
    RB: Mixon
    RB: Ekeler
    TE: Higbee
    Flex: David Johnson

    Bench: TY, A Gibson, Cee Dee, Gronk, Chris Thompson, Anthony Miller

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Freakin’ awesome! Way to go!!!

  15. ↓ Post By blu_cj7@yahoo.com

    12 team, .5ppr. Is this roster just meh?
    Goff
    Edwards-Hellaire
    Aaron Jones
    Fournette
    Golladay
    Kupp
    Jonnu Smith
    Bench:
    AJ Green
    TY Hilton
    Fuller
    Riggs
    Marlon Mack
    Kerryon Johnson

    Really dislike my TE and QB positions. My bench has injury prone WRs and RBs who are about to lose their jobs.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      People in know love Jonnu this year. Goff is fine, streaming QB is fine. You aren’t committed to him. Find the best guy on your waiver wire in terms of a WK1 matchup. That said, look at Goff’s upcoming schedule- he could be a surprise option this yr– he has lots of weapons and this team doesn’t have Gurley anymore— this is Goff’s team now.

      Dude- what are you talking about? Your RB and WR are awesome. Your bench WR are AJG, Hilton, Fuller, and Ruggs!! LMAO

      Sucks for Kerryon that AP was signed- but dude he’s the RB5 on your bench, and will likely still get touches in WK1-2. CEH + AJ + LF+ MM is a fine top 4. It’s going to be a wild year, buckle up……

  16. ↓ Post By gurpindersdeol@gmail.com

    Is K. Vaughn droppable or are we holding? Happy for Fournette but he’s really messing my teams up lol

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      He is for someone higher on the cheat sheet. V3.1 will be up soon. If it’s a keeper league might retain a little more value

  17. ↓ Post By dima1130@aol.com

    whats up RWN will there be any updates to the .5ppr cheatsheet? have a draft tonight and tomorrow, want to make sure i have the most updated one… thanks guys

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yes- there is one to be published this afternoon- stay tuned 🙂

  18. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

    DRAFTAPALOOSA SUNDAY!!!! Three drafts today!!! Let’s get it on!!!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Enjoy!!

  19. ↓ Post By vdubnhead

    RW Nation…just finished first draft of the season, during their show on SiriusXM.
    12-team / 0.5PPR / 4-bench / 1-keeper (rd 7 or later).
    V3.1…from the 9 slot.
    Start (10): QB / 2-RB / 3-WR / TE / FLX / K / DST
    1.09 Dalvin Cook
    2.04 Josh Jacobs
    3.09 DJ Moore
    4.04 Allen Robinson
    5.09 DK Metcalf
    6.04 Antonio Gibson
    7.09 Will Fuller
    8.04 David Montgomery
    9.09 Deebo Samuel
    10.04 Mark Andrews [keeper/last season’s round]
    11.09 James White
    12.04 Baker Mayfield [probably spend some FAAB]
    13.09 Philadelphia
    14.04 Younghoe Koo

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Holy shit man, that’s a fucking mega-throbber!!! Hope you’re happy!

  20. ↓ Post By jasongarritty@yahoo.ca

    Should I be dropping Ke’Shawn Vaughn for Ozigbo, Snell or Hyde?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yep- for Ozigbo—– or those other guys are fine too– -add James Robinson to the list.

  21. ↓ Post By Sfajacks211

    Dynasty trade – PPR

    CEH for ARob and a 2nd in next years rookie draft.

    CEH is the 5th RB (DJ, Kamara, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs). D Adams and scrubs as the WR.

    Barkley and Mixon and nobody else of substance as RB for ARob team.

    What’s the better side or is it even trade for both sides?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      SFA: Its a fair deal, but I think you will be able to get more in a few weeks, if CEH goes off. I’d hold for now. tough out the lean WR situation

  22. ↓ Post By Bigmanmike

    I think my team is just okay, what do you think? Also, I was listening to your podcast and they were saying DeSean Jackson is a must have. Who or would you drop any of my current players for Jackson.

    Josh Allen, Kamara, Drake, Golladay, ODB, Jared Cook, Melvin Gordon, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Cam Akers, Emmanuel Sanders, Darious Slayton.

    Thank you

    1. ↓ Post By Bigmanmike

      Failed to mention 10 team PPR..

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        LMAO- that’s an amazing team!!!

        1. ↓ Post By Bigmanmike

          Thank you, The cheat sheet is an awesome tool.
          Would you drop any of my current players for DeSean Jackson?

  23. ↓ Post By thabupp@gmail.com

    just drafted! Here’s the squad in a 12 team ppr with 10th overall:

    1. (10) Joe Mixon (Cin – RB)
    2. (15) Davante Adams (GB – WR)
    3. (34) Melvin Gordon III (Den – RB)
    4. (39) Jonathan Taylor (Ind – RB)
    5. (58) Leonard Fournette (TB – RB)
    6. (63) DJ Chark Jr. (Jax – WR)
    7. (82) Evan Engram (NYG – TE)
    8. (87) Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
    9. (106) Marvin Jones Jr. (Det – WR)
    10. (111) Marlon Mack (Ind – RB)
    11. (130) DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
    12. (135) Anthony Miller (Chi – WR)
    13. (154) Henry Ruggs III (LV – WR)
    14. (159) Denver (Den – DEF)
    15. (178) Ka’imi Fairbairn (Hou – K)

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Lord have mercy!!!

  24. ↓ Post By chelomendez99@gmail.com

    Just drafted. How’s my squad?
    12 team – 0.5 ppr – 4th pick (accidentally auto-drafted Kamara)

    QB: Mahomes – 3.4
    WR: Hopkins – 2.9
    WR: Sutton – 5.4
    RB: Kamara – 1.4
    RB: Gibson – 4.4
    TE: Gronk – 11.4
    Flex: Fournette – 6.9

    Bench: RoJo, Dobbins, Ruggs, E. Sanders

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Sick haul dude!!!

      1. ↓ Post By chelomendez99@gmail.com

        Thanks for the reply! I finished second last year using RW, let’s hope I get that 1st this year! Keep up the good work!

  25. ↓ Post By Hans

    Real happy with this one- 12 Team Auction, home league has been going for 17yrs:

    Team Name- Vontae Mack NMW

    Miles Sanders (Phi – RB)
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC – RB)
    Adam Thielen (Min – WR)
    Antonio Gibson (Was – RB)
    Cooper Kupp (LAR – WR)
    Harrison Butker (KC – K)
    Russell Wilson (Sea – QB)
    Keenan Allen (LAC – WR)
    Baltimore (Bal – DEF)
    Chris Thompson (Jax – RB)
    T.J. Hockenson (Det – TE)
    Anthony Miller (Chi – WR)
    Phillip Lindsay (Den – RB)
    Jerry Jeudy (Den – WR)
    Henry Ruggs III (LV – WR)
    Miles Sanders  (Phi – RB)

    Had to pay up for Gibson, but CEH & Sanders went $20 cheaper than the CMC-Kamara tier.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      My goodness Hans! Great balls of fire!!!!

  26. ↓ Post By Incognito

    Good morning,

    Will the cheat sheets be updated today? thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’ll be doing a small update to the STD/.5PPR sheet

      1. ↓ Post By gutsman004

        Any sneak preview on the changes?

  27. ↓ Post By Rusty

    Chris Thompson or Tony Pollard? 0.5 ppr

    Other Rbs: Mixon, Ekeler, D Johnson, A Gibson

  28. ↓ Post By Jhintz2010@gmail.com

    Hey RW, so we just drafted and I was the turn at pick 12 in a PPR league. I ended up with Ekeler as my RB1 per the draft cheat sheet. So I went D. Adams #1 and Ekeler #2. I have a trade pending from pick 9 that is offering Mixon for Adams. My RB2 is J. Taylor and my WR2 is A. Robinson. Any thoughts?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      I like the team you drafted. Let it all work for you, before you start trading away these great players you drafted

  29. ↓ Post By gmickovic@yahoo.com

    Finished 12 team,.5 PPR snake draft, was 1st so got McCaffrey of course. Took Jacobs & M. Sanders with 24th & 25th picks. Then went heavy at WR (Woods, Sutton, TY Hilton, D. Parker, M. Jones, M. Hardman). Got Z. Moss, Brady, Hockenson, Colts D, Elliot K to round out roster. Going to drop Hardman cause I got too many WR, can get McCaffrey’s handcuff M. Davis, Ozigbo, or N. Fant. What do you think?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      gmick:

      I’m not certain Davis would be a top 12 RB if CMC went down. Feels like that team might not be great, and Davis is no CMC obviously. I’d rather hold Hardman in the case he gets opportunity in the more likely event of a Watkins injury. If CMC goes down, use those waiver dollars to get Davis…that is what they are for! Good luck

  30. ↓ Post By gman2

    2qb ppr 2 keeper 8 team league
    keepers are assigned first 2 rounds
    i have mcaffrey,lamar,and dalvin cook
    i know mcaffrey no brainer
    i am thinking dalvin 2nd keeper
    but according to ur cheat sheet i should keep lamar
    just double checking
    draft tomorrow

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Gman, I’d def keep Lamar in 2 x QB league. I’m goosey about Dalvin playing without the new contract he desires. A little bump or nick, he may sit out here and there.

  31. ↓ Post By aurock75

    I cant remember if you are still grading drafts like last year, but heres mine:

    QB
    Matt Ryan, Josh Allen
    RB
    Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, David Johnson, Antonio Gibson, Marlon Mack
    WR
    DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Devante Parker, Henry Ruggs, Diontae Johnson
    TE
    Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith
    D/ST
    Chicago Bears
    K
    Zane Gonzalez

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      AUROCK:

      D+ ha j/j you know you killed it. Strong everywhere. a strong A well done. keep on that wiaver wire as needed

  32. ↓ Post By aurock75

    Superflex PPR where 40 points for a qb is an average day and 8-10 qb’s go in the first round each year if this doesnt seem like a rosterwatch draft, its because my power went out at my house right before the draft, and I didnt have access to the cheat sheet:

    QB
    Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones
    RB
    Aaron Jones, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, JK Dobbins,
    WR
    Kenny Golladay, Calvin Ridley, DJ Chark, Julian Edelman, Paris Campbell, Mike Williams
    TE
    Noah Fant, Austin Hooper
    D/ST
    Viking D/ST
    K
    Austin Seibert

  33. ↓ Post By DanMach

    12 Team PPR by round drafting out of the 12 spot. I also don’t like having a RB and QB from the same team. Not sure I like my QBs as both have week 9 byes. Daniel Jones is available
    Rd 1 Joe Mixon
    Rd 2 M. Sanders
    Rd 3 D.J. Moore
    Rd 4 M. Evans
    Rd 5 J. Taylor
    Rd 6 Marquies Brown
    Rd 7 D. Parker
    Rd 8 Z. Moss
    Rd 9 M. Mach
    Rd 10 Jonnu Smith
    Rd 11 B. Mayfield
    Rd 12 J. Burrow
    R 13 Deshaun Jackson
    R 14 B. Love
    R 15 Washington Football Team D
    R 16 R Succop

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      These are most of the guys I love too. I would not sweat having Mixon/Burrow combo. Though Mixon hasn’t been a huge pass catcher so far he can certainly do it. Burrow was CEH’s QB at LSU and he caught an eye-popping 55 balls last year. 55 NCAA catches is like an RB catching 90 passes in NFL.

      Mixon should set a career-high for receptions this season if he stays healthy.

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