Last Minute Draft Advice: Leonard Fournette, Zack Moss, Todd Gurley
by Alan Seslowsky
Many of you will be drafting our season-long fantasy football teams during the first week of September. RosterWatch has been providing actionable intelligence for our readers and listeners all offseason long. Below are a few things to keep in mind as you get into your draft rooms this season.
The Jacksonville Backfield
The Jaguars released Leonard Fournette this week and most of the fantasy world was “shocked.” Loyal followers of Rosterwatch had boots on the ground information that our co-founder, Byron Lambert provided over 2 weeks prior to the news. Byron had reported that Fournette was going to be part of a committee of runners at best, and that being waived was in play. The move leaves the door open for Chris Thompson to be a viable PPR play late in your draft. The draft market is gravitating to 2019 5th round rookie Ryquell Armstead as the early-down option, but Armstead has again been placed on the COVID-19 list as of Friday September 4th. On the Rosterwatch podcast #280 our co-founder Alex Dunlap talked with Evan Silva. Both identified 2019 waiver wire claim Devine Ozigbo as the sharp pivot play in the Jacksonville backfield.
Every year there are “traps” at different parts of the draft. We define a “trap” as a part of the draft ADP that pushes players up because of position scarcity who are clearly less talented than players going after the ‘trap” players. In 2020 the third and fourth round is loaded with trap players. Leonard Fournette, previous to his release, is the perfect example of a “trap” player. If you follow the Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet’s three simple rules and do not bastardize the sheet, you will avoid traps.
Todd Gurley is another player that could be a trap. On paper, Gurley looks like the lead runner on an Atlanta offense that projects to score points. Referring again to RosterWatch podcast #280, special guest Evan Silva expressed concerns that Gurley’s knee issue is a bigger concern than the draft market believes. He sighted the artificial turf in Atlanta, which could elevate the risk of injury. Drafting running backs in the first two rounds will let you shop for WRs in the third and early fourth round. There will be viable RBs in the fifth round and later like Antonio Gibson, Cam Akers, Kerryon Johnson, and Ronald Jones.
The Buffalo RBs
All offseason, Devin Singletary has had a top-five round ADP. Back in March, he was routinely going in round three. After the real NFL draft, when the Bills drafted third-round rookie Zack Moss, Singletary dropped to round four. August training camp buzz is that Zack Moss has been a standout and could have an immediate role that consists of the high-value touches. Pro Football Focus had Zack Moss as their RB1 in this loaded class. RosterWatch is still exercising caution on Moss before the eighth round. Moss’ TD upside could be limited by QB Josh Allen‘s ability to score rushing TDs. Josh Allen has had an eye-popping 17 rushing TDs in his first two years. Even if we regress that number to 4.5, it is still significant enough to cap Moss’ TD equity. Moss is a fine play at ADP, but not a player RosterWatch is jumping the field to make sure to draft. Singletary is a fade in the fifth due to his low TD equity projection but he is viable in the late sixth round or later. Of the two, we prefer Moss at his current value and feel there should not be the disparity in ADP that exists as 2020 draft season is reaching its conclusion.