RosterWatch vs RotoUnderworld Dynasty Startup Mock Draft
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

RosterWatch and our friends at RotoUnderworld squared off for round two of our mock draft grudge match series. Click HERE if you missed our “Rookie Mock Draft.” This time the competition was a dynasty startup draft. This exercise helps educate our loyal members about the optimal ways to construct a startup dynasty roster. There are many paths to building a durable dynasty team. The participants in this exercise chose a variety of builds.

Format

Number of Teams: 12

PPR: Yes

QBs: Start One (Non-Superflex)

TE: No Premium Scoring (1 x PPR) 

Starting Position Requirements: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 Flex, 9 Bench

 

Key Draft Takeaways: 

• Proven young WRs are better long term bets than RBs; yet the first 12 players picked = RBs
• Aging peak production veterans (age 28+) fall down the board
• WR1 production available in rounds 3-5
• Travis Kelce at age 32,  is still the Dynasty TE1
• Michael Thomas was the dynasty WR1 in ’20.  ’21= WR15? 
• Najee Harris = first-round pick, even without a team
• Captain Obvious Alert: Wait on QB, but not too long
• Round 8-10 are the best values. These players could be drafted in round 5

Rounds 1-2 Summary

Best Pick: Alex Dunlap (RosterWatch Co-Founder) 

Tyreek Hill at 2.2, WR2

Hill is attached to the arm of Patrick Mahomes for the long term. WRs with Hill’s body type tend to age well. Tyreek’s resume of banked production along with being in his athletic peak make him a steal in the second round.

Riskiest Pick: Shane Seeley (RosterWatch Nation) 

Cam Akers at 1.6, RB6

Akers is the buzziest player of the offseason. His late surge in 2020 has fantasy players optimistic for 2021. Building your dynasty team around Cam Akers can pay off, but without a full season of  RB1 production on his resume along with Head Coach Sean McVay’s past committee tendencies, Akers is a high-risk (high reward) first-round pick.

Value Pick: Byron Lambert (RosterWatch Co-Founder) 

Davante Adams 2.8, WR6

Adams will likely be the WR1 in 2021 redraft rankings. Davante’s eye-popping 18 TD in 2020 represents a career-high. Even the regression police would be foolish to project Adams for anything less than 10+ TDs for each of the next two seasons. Getting a weekly difference maker late in round two represents the best value of the top 24 picks. 

 

Rounds 3-6 Summary

Best Pick: The Podfather (RotoUnderworld Founder)

Michael Thomas 4.4, WR15

Dynasty players pride themselves on thinking long-term. Yet we are just as susceptible to recency bias as our re-draft counterparts. Michael Thomas was on a hall of fame trajectory. Everything went wrong for MT in 2020. Thomas’ down season was more likely an outlier than a projection moving forward. Understanding the Saints will have a new QB in 2021, Thomas still has top-five upside. 

Riskiest Pick: “Franchise 5” 

Ja’Marr Chase 3.4, WR11

Chase is expected to be the first WR drafted in the upcoming real NFL draft. He is a clean prospect who is can be a top 12 NFL WR quickly. RosterWatch will likely rank Chase as a defensible 1.1 in rookie mock drafts. Drafting Chase in a dynasty startup this early prices in his upside and does not account for the risk. Without knowing Chase’s landing spot and Quarterback, drafting him as the 11th WR off the board is a sub-optimal bet. Of course, this could pay off, but RosterWatch prefers bankable WRs like DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, and Allen Robinson ahead of Ja’Marr Chase this early. 

Value Pick: Shaun Washko “Comish” (RotoUnderworld) 

Darren Waller 5.8, TE3

Locking in 100 receptions and 1,100 yards of projectable production from your TE in round five may be the best value of the whole draft. Waller’s 251 fantasy points in 2020 would have ranked him 8th among wide receivers. WR8 went in the second round (24th overall) in this draft. 

 

Rounds 7-10 Summary

Best Pick: Alan Seslowsky (RosterWatch)

Justin Herbert 7.10, QB6

“Wait on QB,” is an accepted strategy to optimize your roster for RBs and WRs. Rosterwatch discovered a leak in that philosophy last year. There are eight QBs that are weekly difference makers. Securing one of those eight changes your projected win probability. After those eight are off the board, waiting on QB makes more sense. Herbert is defensible as the QB2 in dynasty. His 2020 season was historic in terms of rookie performance. 

Riskiest Pick: “Jack C.”

Chuba Hubbard, 7.7 RB31

The label of “riskiest pick” does not mean it was a bad pick. The term “risk” should be interpreted at face value. Hubbard is a speed back that will be THE most landing spot-dependent RB in the class. In a year with quality free agents RBs looking for jobs along with a handful of rookies runners projected to get selected before Hubbard; spending a seventh-round pick on him comes with elevated risk. This pick can pay off if Hubbard lands on a team like San Francisco, which puts a premium on speed. 

Value Pick: Patrick Fennell (RotoUnderworld)

Odell Beckham 9.2, WR47

All of the risks are more than priced in where Patrick landed ODB. Though recent returns on Beckham have been disappointing, Odell is still in his late athletic peak. Beckham has WR1 weeks within his range of outcomes. 

 

Rounds 11-16 Summary

Best Pick: Byron Lambert (RosterWatch Co-Founder)

Gus Edwards 13.5, RB50

In the late rounds of dynasty startup drafts chasing upside is a widely recommended strategy. “Swinging for the fences” comes with obvious risks. Byron pivoted from this tactic to add a viable weekly starter to his dynasty roster. Gus Edwards is a RFA heading into 2021. The Ravens will likely match any offer Gus gets. Edwards showed well as the “thunder” part of the Baltimore backfield committee. JK Dobbins will likely lead the team in running production, but Gus Edwards projects for 150 carries including some of the goal-line work. Gus also represents a “one injury away” top 20 RB. Landing Gus Edwards as the RB50 is an easy to identify “best pick” in the later rounds. 

Riskiest Pick: Team “Franchise 10″

James Conner 14.1, RB52

The risk with Conner is that he is likely going to be a backup wherever he lands. Drafters of Conner are clinging to his RB6 finish in 2018. Conner’s inability to stay healthy for long stretches and his recent ineffectiveness as a runner leads us to conclude he is “just a guy.” In the 14th round Conner is not a bad pick, but still can be classified as “risky,” since less than 50 carries for 2021 is well within his range of outcomes.  

Value Pick: Team “Matty Ice” 

Mike Williams 16.12 WR86

The final pick in this dynasty startup mock draft was former top 10 overall draft selection, Mike Wiliams. Mike Williams has a 1,000 yard season and a 10 TD season on his four-year NFL resume. The Chargers have never put “Big Mike” in a position to maximize his upside. With Justin Herbert firmly entrenched as the starter, Mike Williams will be in the best position to reach his ceiling this season. Williams has the upside to be a top 15 fantasy WR if things break right.

 

Conclusion 

Dynasty players can fall into a trap of thinking too long term.  Dynasty fantasy football is best thought of in a 2-3 year window rather than a 4-5 year time frame.  We mostly avoid projecting players beyond the upcoming season and the one after that. With how volatile the NFL is from week to week and season to season, it is a bad bet to project more than a handful of seasons out. There are exceptions to that guiding principle, but keep this in mind when you are drafting dynasty startups this off-season. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:”rowa”};