RosterWatch Week 1 DFS Cheat Sheet and hyperDFS Lineup Generator (FanDuel) Now Available
Week 17 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: FanDuel
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
Follow Mike Band on Twitter
The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for FanDuel is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members.
NEW! Check out the new and improved version of our professional lineup builder, RosterWatch HyperDFS, also in your downloads section!
*****As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise.*****
HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?
THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.
THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.
Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.
THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).
HOW TO USE THE SHEET
Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.
Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.
The Vegas Tool will be out before the main slate occurs.
8 Comments
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
RW, Disgusting dilemma here. Perhaps it’s a Trashman issue to solve…. 2QB league. 6 pt. per TD. Have to stream second QB. Have Hoyer. Kizer, Flacco, Goff (yikes but good QB matchup on your tool), Siemian, Glennon (good god and I’m a Bears fan) available. I’ll roll with whomever you recommend then cut them if/when Luck gets healthy. Thanks in advance! #RW4EVA
That is a trash question- I’d prob roll Goff or Hoyer, both at home.
Where can I find the full spreadsheet?
1pt ppr. Deaundre Hopkins or Terrelle Pryor?
Pryor
Got a trade offer:
I get M Gordon for M Evans
I have: WR- Dez, M Evans, Garcon, DeS Jackson, Corey Davis RB- Lynch, T Montgomery, F Gore, D Sproles, Prosise
He has: WR- D Hopkins, K Allen, A Thielen, K Wright RB- Zeek, M Gordon, B Powell, D Henry, A Peterson, McFadden
Like it or should I stay with what i’ve got?
Yeah, that’s a fair and good deal- I’d do it. Love them both, but we rank Gordon higher on the season- and we’re expecting a monster
Been a member for over a year now and love your stuff as well as listening on Sirius.
I’ve been looking at the line up Generator and going through them. I notice the bars off the side change with points, ownership and such. My question is that I know high ownership in cash games is not a problem and actually a plus. While running through some lineups I noticed that the ownership % peak was around 20% +/-. Is that considered High Ownership or have I not scrolled enough to find higher %’s ?
Kinda cool thing was while looking over the generated lineups a lot of them coincided with lineups I’ve already done.. You guys are good teachers I guess and this is an Old Dog talking.. Thanks again Guys and keep it going.