PRO RosterWatch Week 8 DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool Now Available
Week 8 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: DraftKings
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
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The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for DraftKings is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The KingsTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).
HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?
THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.
THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.
Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.
THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).
HOW TO USE THE SHEET
Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.
Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.
The DraftKings Vegas Props Tool will be out late Saturday evening as always.
Click here to go to your profile page and download the DraftKings Cheat Sheet.
8 Comments
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Looks like Booker was smoking that fine Denver before he even landed a job there. Absolutely love Rosterwatch’s private gallery of photos.
Was talking to Alex tonight about many more photos we are considering releasing. Keep it up Great. Seeing if we can swindle you up a badge for your avatar.
Considering making a trade and giving away greg olsen and Christine Michael for blount? I have jimmy graham and want to beef up my running backs. I have zeke currently and ty Montgomery and that’s all I have at rb. Thoughts on the trade?
That’s too much for Blount, especially with Lewis’ return on the horizon.
I have Mariota, Stafford and Palmer but need to drop one of these due to bye week needs. Playoff schedule — Mariota – Den, @kc & Jags; Stafford — Bears, NYGT & @KC; Palmer — @Miami. NO, & @ Seattle. Love to hear what you think on this one. Thanks
I’d lose Mariota. His upside is limited compared to the others.
I just wanted to say I love the site and it helps be stay in the winning category week after week.
My only question is will you guys be working on a cheat sheets for the Yahoo! daily platform anytime soon? I’m just wondering. Love the DK and FD cheat sheets, but I play Yahoo! as well.
Thanks again and keep up the great work RW team!
Respectfully,
Happy Customer
Why does the FANDUEL Daily come out so late?