PRO RW Vegas Tool: Week 4 NFL DFS Flex Values Based on Vegas Player Props

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 4 DFS research. We’ve aggregated all the open NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring in this opening weekend of action.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings/FanDuel pricing as a tool in gaining an edge.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making decisions for our season-long leagues as well.

PLEASE NOTE:

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers get them to us through Saturday evenings in-season and later in the week during the playoffs. Please check back leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed on the sheet.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them as early as we do. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two props given, while accounting for juice.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here once available.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic production projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

18 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By John Hunsberger

    Need some help 1-3 injury bug got me

    Qb – Winston dalton and dalton – need 1

    Flex (need upside ) – Royce freeman , Chark , perston Williams

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      man, might have to lean Winston there but don’t love it. If you want upside, it’s pretty clear that Chark is the highest upside play but would play Royce over him in an optimal-type setup. GL this week.

      1. ↓ Post By John Hunsberger

        Thanks man I appreciate it !!

  2. ↓ Post By TS1388

    Flex Starter question. 10 team standard
    Devonta Freeman or Christian Kirk?

    Ito Smith seems like he’s gonna play so that made me question the Devonta play

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      In PPR I would definitely say Kirk but STD makes me think it’s a toss up and would lean on the TD equity of Freeman. Very tough.

  3. ↓ Post By renourka

    12 Team .5 PPR (1-2)

    [1] QB: J. Allen (D. Jones)
    [2] RB: McCaffrey, Henry (Mixon, Barber, R. Jones)
    [2] WR: Ridley, Fitzgerald (Landry, Ross, Chark)
    [1] TE: OJ Howard
    [1] W/R/T: Fournette
    [1] IR: Guice
    Bench total: (6)

    Need to drop one player so I can stream the Steelers DEF… who do I drop!? Snagged Daniel Jones as a FA but Josh Allen has been good so what do I do? Asked on Twitter and you advised me to drop Guice but he’s in my IR spot so I need to know who else is the most droppable?

    Best available:
    QB: Jimmy G, Brissett, Dalton, Kyle Allen
    RB: J. Jackson, J. Wilson
    WR: P. Williams, C. Davis, Quinn, Richardson, Pettis
    TE: Herndon, Fant

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Would drop Rojo or Barber if you need to pick up a D.

  4. ↓ Post By Rick

    Team name: Turned Down For Watt 2-1, PPR, start at Flex: DK Metcalf at ARI or Josh Jacobs at IND or Chris Thomson at NYG? Thanks!!

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      tough ones in here – I’d go Jacobs and pray that OAK can stay in the game to some degree.

    2. ↓ Post By The Flex Network

      All tempting options but I would still roll with the opportunity share of Josh Jacobs. He should be well over that flu by now.
      -Flex Shane

  5. ↓ Post By Kondo

    I need a bottom of The Trashman’s barrel TE streamer for a 14 team PPR league this week.
    “Best” names available on the wire are the likes of Doyle, Higbee and Burton.
    Good feelings about any of the above?

    Thanks,

    Champ Champ (2-1)

  6. ↓ Post By Spinman

    Should I offer this trade:
    I give up T Coleman (picked up off waivers this week) and ask for S Sheppard and M Andrews (they have Breida)

    I have V Davis as my TE and
    RBs = L Bell, L Fournette, Kerryon J, C Thompson, and M Sanders

    WRs = M Thomas, T Lockett, C Ridley, R Anderson

  7. ↓ Post By Spinman

    Should I offer this trade:
    I give up T Coleman (picked up off waivers this week) and ask for S Sheppard and M Andrews (they have Breida)

    I have V Davis as my TE and
    RBs = L Bell, L Fournette, Kerryon J, C Thompson, and M Sanders

    WRs = M Thomas, T Lockett, C Ridley, R Anderson

    Thank you!

    1. ↓ Post By Spinman

      Not sure why gravatar disappeared!!

  8. ↓ Post By rw-dxaZF7PC9

    Mayfield or Stafford? Dropped Brisset for Stafford bc of your rankings but will he finish game? What ya think? Thx!

  9. ↓ Post By Bselle

    Baker is my QB should I trade Chark for Rivers or keep Chark and pick up Kyle Allen?

    1. ↓ Post By Spinman

      Gravatars are temperamental!

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