Start Tebow Week 9 vs. The Raiders?
Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com
I’m starting to put together our matchup tool so we can input our individual ranks into the cumulative formula later tonight. It helps helps with forming initial opinions early in the week, and something you should use to begin your weekly, post-waiver period analysis as well. These are your moves you are making. We are just giving you advice and insight, so keep yourself informed. This is free material, so take advantage.
I know the Tebow thing has been driven into the ground, but we’re not talking about his mechanics here. We watched the tape back, and it is as bad as everyone has said, trust me. He is an awful NFL QB at this point- and in danger of being canned at any point moving forward. This affects you in a more indirect way as an owner, though. The immediate effect for you is that he will start vs. The Raiders. (and he has been a decent-to-good fantasy QB so far)
Good in fantasy does not mean real-life good. Its fantasy. But coming into the Lions game, the guy had accounted for 15 TDs in just over 4 games where he was used for more than a pass attempt or two in the Tebow package. Now he’s accounted for 16. Think about that. He looks terrible, but he has been putting up 20+ point games for owners who started him for his running ability. He also always manages to eek out at least one passing TD, sometimes even adding rushing scores in garbage-time situations.
The Raiders are giving up the 12th most points to fantasy QBs this season and have given up above-average rushing statistics to some unlikely candidates like Ryan Fitzpatrick 3-23 yds- Orton had at least nice one run on them. Colt McCoy went for over 30 and Sanchez scored a rushing TD.
Raiders DC Chuck Dresnehan is no Gunther Cunningham, but he has talent on that defense and seems to dial it up better at home. The problem is that he doesn’t have the personnel to go 9-wide! I said it on the show last week that The Lions were going to give Tebow trouble after urging everyone to start him the week before vs. Miami. The designed draws up the middle disappeared against the Lions, because as I predicted- he had trouble bouncing out off-tackle and creating those 7-yard runs that add up so quickly. It is obvious that “forcing Tebow to be a pocket passer” is the best way to defend against him, but not everyone is equipped to do that as well as the Lions did last week. And he still didn’t do that bad as a fantasy option.
I’m not in love with him, but if he doesn’t start out throwing picks or fumbling (which will get him benched) I like him as a mid-range QB2 this week with upside to have a QB1-type game. Initial Weekly Cumulative / Flex / and Rest-of-Season Rankings go up on Wednesdays, so check em out. We update all week.