The Fantasy Fallout: Coming Into Week 4
This is has been the weirdest first three weeks of an NFL season I can remember. If you’ve gone 0-3 during this stretch, don’t give up hope just yet. I have a feeling these wacky weeks are going to regress back to the mean as far as consistent fantasy output from your better players. Also, some 3-0 teams may turn out not to be as strong as they appeared as fantasy playoffs near. Keeping that in mind…
– The Chargers are running the ball a ton as evidenced by Donald Brown’s 31 carries, and it’s taking its toll on Keenan Allen’s fantasy production. He’s a player to aim for in trades, as he won’t be this bad for long and should have a role even once Ryan Mathews returns.
– Danny Woodhead could be done for the season. Branden Oliver is next in line to back up Donald Brown, and while we don’t have a lot to go on about this kid, there is little depth in the San Diego backfield so he’s worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.
-Just when you thought Antonio Gates had returned to his TE1 ways, he goes and lays down a .08 clunker for a lot of folks who were depending on him. I think he’ll have more good days than bad, but his success will be gameplan specific it seems. I would only start him in leagues where you can put TEs in your flex.
–Ladarius Green was in on a third of plays this Sunday, but I don’t know that you want to start him just yet. He’s the definition of boom-or-bust right now.
–C.J. Spiller’s inconsistency reared its ugly head for the first time this year, and his owners should know that this is a normal occurrence in his roller-coaster-like fantasy production.
-It’s still early, but with more receptions, yards, and fantasy points than Spiller, Fred Jackson is looking like the better fantasy value at this point, as usual.
–Sammy Watkins can’t be thought of as more than a WR3 (albeit a HUGE-upside WR3) until he shows more consistency, and Robert Woods is droppable.
-As much as we love Justin Hunter, I am one week from relegating him to a permanent spot on my bench or even outright dropping him for a hot pickup in shallow leagues. If he can’t make good in Week 4’s matchup with the Colts, I don’t know that he’s worth a roster spot in redrafts. It’s all Jake Locker’s fault by the way.
-Don’t look now, but Bishop Sankey is starting to creep up the Titans totem pole of running backs. Week 3 marked the first time he was more involved in the Titans running attack than any other player. Try to trade for him in hopes that his owners haven’t noticed yet.
-TE Delanie Walker is one of the few guys Jake Locker can seem to get the ball to on a regular basis. For now, he’s an every week starter.
-To me, Cincinnati looks like the best team in the league right now, and Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill are both worth putting in your lineups.
-The Browns shouldn’t be 1-2, and Andrew Hawkins shouldn’t be on your bench. He’s had at least 7 points in standard leagues every week this season.
-Hopefully the Browns are starting to realize what we did awhile ago, that Isaiah Crowell is the best back on their team. He’s averaging almost 2 yds more per carry than Terrance West.
–Torrey Smith is still a bum, and Steve Smith just keeps making him look bad.
–Justin Forsett is a change-of-pace back, even with Bernard Pierce hobbled.
–Dennis Pitta could be out for awhile. Make sure Owen Daniels is a high priority waiver request if you’re shallow at TE.
-The Green Bay v. Detroit game was an anomaly. Neither team will have as bad a game for the rest of the season. The days of Green Bay’s NFC north dominance are over though.
-Things have looked pretty bleak for Eddie Lacy recently, but he has some great matchups on the horizon. If you own him, hold tight, and if you don’t then I would try acquiring him in trade before the going gets good.
-It didn’t really show on the stat sheet, but Davante Adams is still ascending to the third receiver spot in Green Bay, playing an even share of snaps with Jarrett Boykin. The Packers have better days ahead, and so does Adams.
-I get the feeling that Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers are both just keeping Brandon Bostick’s seat warm. Look for Green Bay to get him more involved in the near future.
–Reggie Bush had the better game in Week 3, but I still like Joique Bell more on the season, even in PPR leagues.
-We’re starting to see a real changing of the guard for QBs in the NFL. The young guns are looking better, and the guys who have been around for a decade are beginning to look their ages…aside from Manning that is…Peyton Manning that is.
–Ahmad Bradshaw looks great, but the Colts are intent on giving Trent Richardson more carries. He’ll remain fantasy viable as long as he’s healthy.
-The Blake Bortles era has begun in Jacksonville. It’s time to grab a Jags receiver not named Lee, and wait for the fun to start.
–Toby Gerhart disappoints again, but at least he’s showing life. Let’s see what he can do in another Bortles start before we set him to pasture.
-If the Patriots can only put up 16 on the Raiders, something’s wrong, and it looks like the culprit is Tom Brady’s arm. His longer throws are falling short, rendering receivers not named Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski unreliable until further notice.
-And though neither back had a stellar day, Brady’s throwing woes are going to force the Pats to resort to the run more and more as the season wears on. Hold onto Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen.
–Darren McFadden is the only Raider you can put into your lineups, but Andre Holmes should be added in deeper leagues.
-I don’t know what’s wrong the Saints, but they need to stop getting cute and just chuck the ball up to Jimmy Graham when in doubt. It’s like a few years ago when the Lions thought there were better options than Calvin Johnson at times. Why deviate from the program?
–Khiry Robinson didn’t have an amazing game on 18 carries, but the Minnesota defense is better than advertised. I expect him only to improve while Mark Ingram is out.
–Teddy Bridgewater held is own in relief of Matt Cassel yesterday. There is hope in Minnesota.
–Matt Asiata continues to stay afloat in fantasy due to his ability to catch passes. Jerick McKinnon is the better fit in Minnesota though, and it’s going to start to show.
–Greg Jennings isn’t going to wow anybody in fantasy, but he won’t leave you high and dry either. He’s going to be a nice flex start throughout the season.
–Rashad Jennings is who we thought he was. You’re welcome, RosterWatch Nation.
–Larry Donnell will finish the year as a Top 10 TE.
-I think Luke Shabro might have been onto something. Deandre Hopkins is the leading Texans receiver, and he might stay way.
–Alfred Blue is going to stay relevant even when Arian Foster returns. There are enough carries to go around in that O’Brien offense.
-I’m not sure the Eagles can keep this pace up. Word out of Philly is that Chip Kelly is overworking his players during practice. Hopefully they get back to feeding Lesean McCoy in large doses for all of our sakes.
–Jordan Matthews may not accumulate many yards this season, but he’s going to maintain his role as a key red-zone target.
–Jeremy Maclin is proving people wrong. He looks like a WR1. It still remains a huge concern how long he can stay healthy, though.
–Kirk Cousins is a better fit in Jay Gruden’s offense than RG3. The arrow is pointing up for all the guys connected to his arm.
-It’s still early, but Roy Helu looks like he might finally be worth some flex plays with Cousins around.
-With the Cowboys finding such success running the ball, the odd man out is going to be Jason Witten, who is being asked to stay in and block more. He’s currently not worth starting in 12-team leagues.
-I’d wait another game before I started thinking about spot starting Austin Davis. (Editor’s Note: Who on Earth is thinking of ‘spot-starting’ Austin fucking Davis?!) The Cowboys defense is not a suitable litmus test.
–Drew Stanton is starting to find a rhythm with his receivers, so don’t be afraid to start them with him as QB.
–John Brown leads Cardinals receivers in TDs, but we’d still like to see more volume before recommending him as an every-week play.
-I wouldn’t get too worried about the lack of use of Frank Gore against the Cardinals. I just think the 49ers didn’t want to repeatedly run him into a brick wall.
-Like I surmised last week, Stevie Johnson’s role in San Fran is growing. He’ll be worth flexing as long as Vernon Davis is out. It turns out Johnson, not Derek Carrier, was the beneficiary of Davis’ absence.
–Knile Davis looked great in Jamaal Charles’ stead, but he’ll probably be back on the bench sooner than later. All of the action he and Joe McKnight got will be Charles’ territory when he returns.
–Travis Kelce is getting some consistency on the field. It’s time to get him in lineups.
–Charles Clay doesn’t look healthy. He’s getting the looks, but he’s bench fodder until it starts to translate into receptions.
-Like I’ve suggested before, Peyton Manning doesn’t feel like he needs to force the ball to Demaryius Thomas, and you’re going to have to deal with some underwhelming fantasy days from the overwhelming receiver.
–Julius Thomas is fantasy’s best TE through three weeks. Even on low-target days like Week 3 versus Seattle, his use in the end zone will sustain his value.
-I refrained from making trade offers for Montee Ball when I saw his brutal schedule. Things aren’t going to get much easier for him.
–Percy Harvin had a pedestrian day, but he still led the team in targets. Don’t sell low.
–Le’Veon Bell is matchup-proof. As Byron said while watching him last night, he looks like a taller Brian Westbrook.
–Kelvin Benjamin is a going to give defenders fits all season due to his size and vice like mitts. He’s still my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and you’re still welcome, RosterWatch Nation. Enjoy him on your rosters.
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Rashad Jennings, Kelvin Benjamin, and Hopkins floated me this week with an average Drew Brees not throwing to Jimmy. Thanks guys!
kelvin is a BEAST
What high level RBs are worth targeting with Kelvin Benjamin? I have Dez and Julio as my starters, Mike Flyod, Kelvin Flex/Back up guys in one league RBs – Jennings, Gore, Hill, Hyde, West, Ingram.
Dez, D. Thomas, A. Brown (start/flx) with Cooks, Floyd, Benjamin back ups (8 team league) (RBs – Foster, Jennings, Knile Davis, Toby, Vereen) and
Dez, Jeffery (starters) Kelvin, Floyd, Sanu, Gordon on bench in third league (RBs – Ridley, Asiata, FJax, Vereen, T West).
Yes, I have him in all 3 my leagues – thanks, I used a lot of the rosterwatch in drafts. I also have Floyd in all three… What Buy-Low RB can I offer Floyd for after decent game or do I go for top RB1 for Benjamin?
Or keep them both??
cwink2121-
We would probably take Kelvin or Floyd and pair them with Gore and try to land a big fish at RB. Maybe a buy low on one of the top RBs who is maybe a buy low right now. Lacy, or even Forte if he has a slow night would be obvious targets. If you could somehow get Charles that would be amazing.
Straight up- we’d be looking for Ellington, Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Doug Martin- those type of guys- maybe even a Montee Ball which would be a HUGE steal! Good luck
I am in a 12 team full point ppr league. Our starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 TE, 1 Kicker, and 1 Defense. We have to roster a total of 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Kickers, and 2 Defenses. My current roster of QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs is as follows:
QBs: Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger
RBs: LeSean McCoy, Montee Ball, Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams
WRs: Antonio Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Kelvin Benjamin
TEs: Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce
I am 1-2 in our league. Unfortunately, I am going to lose by 9 points this week. I am concerned about LeSean McCoy and Montee Ball’s production. They both are getting the volume. However, McCoy’s offensive line is horrendous at the moment and Ball’s schedule is brutal especially with the Cardinals, Jets, and 49ers coming up right after the week 4 bye. Do you think I should use any of the players on my roster as trade bait? If you could let me know, I would greatly appreciate it. I don’t want to make any crazy moves. I listened to your show over the weekend and remember what you said about how some fantasy football owners begin to panic starting in week 4.
wmcgrath-
Exactly- you want to take advantage of the panicky owners- you don’t want to be one yourself. There isn’t a lot you can do with LeSean and Ball – those guys still have a ton of value. We might shop Ball if we though somebody would give us fair value right now- but not sure if that will happen. You just have to live with Shady- barring injury somehow someway his numbers will be there at the end of the season.
Hopefully, you have listened to our advice that Rashad Jennings is a high-end RB1 and have been playing him every week. He is your best RB at the moment- and could even conceivably finish the season as such. You have a GREAT ROSTER- we would probably sit tight. If somehow, we could get a crazy deal for Ball, Kelvin, or Floyd- those are the guys we’d consider moving to maybe buy low on an Elite TE- or make a possible upgrade at QB. Although, you must be fairly happy with Romo. Good luck.
I’ve got an offer on the table to give up ball and acquire lacy. It sounds like I should hit the accept button now…?
It’s a straight up trade? I’d pull the trigger.
When does the Crow become the lead back in Cleveland?
If you look at the Big Tool, he’s already basically splitting snaps w/ West. The only unknown remaining though is how the team will handle Tate’s return.
I need a RB for week 4, the following backs are available. Who would you select from these players and what priority order would you put them:
Sankey, D. Brown, Mcfadden, Hyde and Tate.
Please let me know if there’s anyone else you might suggest that’s might be out there as well.
Thanks!
Tate is on bye in week 4, so I guess that counts him out. I like Brown, McFadden and Hyde in that order. if DeAngelo Williams is available, I really like him too with so many injuries in Carolina’s backfield.
Trade Question:
I’m trading Terrence West, Andre Johnson, and Knile Davis for Zac Stacy, Ladarius Green, and Keenan Allen
Is good?
Patty-
That’s a stellar trade. Congrats on pulling it off.
He countered with replacing Andre Johnson with Mike Wallace. Does it change it?
It’s not quite the swindle, but I’d still do it.
Thanks
Great article – thanks for the good notes, guys!
Have a tough choice to make – need to drop a RB to pick up T.Y. Hilton on the waiver wire this week (my WR core is very thin). I’m leaning toward dropping AP. It is in a keeper league and I hate to let him go but given the circumstances, NFL punishment, and the Vikes likely to drop him, I don’t see much choice. What do you think? Here are my RBs –
Peterson, Asiata, Bradshaw, Jennings, Foster, Blue, Talliaferro
And would you drop Denver D for Texans D with the week 4 bye?
Thanks for the help
I think you’re probably right Jaksteel. Who knows what the future holds for AP? If you want to be patient though, I’m most iffy about Taliaferro. If I had to drop Denver, the Texans are a nice play at home against Buffalo.
Ok boys… My backfield’s been obliterated. Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Toby Gearhart, and Zach Stacey to start the year. I currently have added Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley, and Bobby Rainey but I’m 0-3 and fading fast. My receivers are De Thomas, Keenan Allen, Andre Johnson, and Kelvin Benjamin. We start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex) in a PPR league. QB (for now is Cutler). What do I do to turn it around?
Martin should be back this week, and we like Gerhart more with Bortles taking over in Jacksonville. Your receivers should all pick it up soon as well. I might move AJ if I was going to trade any of them. He’s not a big TD guy. Stacy is not best for a ppr league, so I might consider moving him in a trade where you get one or more lower profile rbs that catch more balls a la Ellington, Bradshaw, Ivory, etc. Honestly, your team is not bad. This is just a bizarre start to the NFL season for everyone.
My team may be beyond help…but I’m going down swingin’! Here’s my lineup: Rodgers (I KNOW!), Ball, Harvin, Allen, Stacy,Wright,Kelce. I’ve picked up West and K Robinson on waivers. Big Ben (many teams in our league pick up a backup QB), MJD and Torrey Smith are on my bench. Due to the extreme suckitude of my team (0-3! Last place!), I have first pick on waivers this week. We are 0.5 ppr and start 5 flex.
My questions: Do I go ahead and take Greg Jennings, and if so, drop Torrey or MJD? Or, do I take Owen Daniels, and flex him this week, but will have a backup TE for when Kelce’s on bye (Reed was my TE1, but I dropped him)?
Also, I’ve resisted starting Big Ben, but I like the matchup (TB–hello?!) Am I crazy to bench Rodgers vs. the Bears?
I’m actually considering changing my team name to ‘TB Bucs.’ Help me Obi Wan…
First I might think about moving Ball, whose schedule is brutal all season. I might hold onto Smith, who I hate, just because he might pick up some of Pitta’s slack. Daniels can’t do that on his own. I’d drop MJD for Jennings. Keep Rodgers in there. The Bears secondary is the most depleted in the league after last night.
Hey guys,
I’m in a 10 team, standard scoring league and I wanted to get your opinion on a couple of trade possibilities. I have Matt Ryan, Rob Gronkowski, and am stacked with receivers (Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Kelvin Benjamin, and Torrey Smith). However my backfield is very thin with Montee Ball (who’s on bye this week), Ryan Matthew (injured), Bishop Sankey, MJD, and Alfred Blue. I was wondering what your opinion would be on a trade, most likely Wallace and Sanders or Benjamin for Forte or Le’veon Bell. Or should I just weather the storm this week, keep my stud receivers, and hope that Ball gets in a rhythm and Sankey gets the starting job soon? There are a few decent guys on the waiver wire like Toby Gerhart, Matt Asiata, and Talliaferro I could pick up too.
Thanks guys and keep up the good work
I’d do close to anything to get Bell. Smith is totally expendable, but I’d hold onto Benjamin if I could though. I’m afraid for Ball. I don’t know of a running back with a more brutal schedule, and Denver seems content to abandon the run if it’s not successful. I do think Sankey will show up more and more though. I would go for Asiata, Gerhart, and Taliaferro in that order.
Thanks for the advice! So I was told Bell isn’t going anywhere but I ended up getting Forte for Wallace and Sanders. So I now have Ryan, Forte, Ball, Mathews, MJD, Sankey, Blue, C. Johnson, Marshall, Benjamin, T. Smith, J. Matthews, and Gronk. I just got a trade offer today to get McCoy, R. White, Decker, and Bennett for Marshall and Gronk. This offer is pretty tempting, and I was wondering what you guys think. I think I would have a pretty solid team either way so idk what to do.
Let me get this straight, you get LeSean McCoy Roddy White, Eric Decker, Martellus Bennett for Brandon Marshall and Gronk? I would do that trade.
Yeah, that’s what I was offered. Are you at all worried about McCoy losing touches to Sproles?
No, McCoy is out carrying Sproles 60 to 17, and he has only 4 fewer targets.
And he just told me he’s trading Bennett to someone else, so I’d be Witten instead
12 man PPR. I have Gio, Vereen, Ben Tate, Woodhead, Jeremy Hill, Turbin; Dez, Garcon, Roddy, Hartline, Jordan Mathews. Would it be a good Idea to offer Dez for Leveon Bell and Deandre Hopkins? I might be able to get MJD or Sankey off waivers.
jpayne-
That sounds like a great trade if you can get it. We love Bell. We also like Sankey over MJD in the long run.
10 man 1pt. ppr. Question? Trade just offered Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen for my Andre Ellington and Emmanuel Sanders? Worried giving up sanders in a ppr is too much. We can play 1 rb and 4 wr in this league which is what I usually do Dez, Emmanuel, Cooks, Floyd, with Tate on my bench? Hopkins,Hawkins, still on wire?
I would personally do the trade, but it might end up a wash. I just think Lacy has a great schedule ahead, and Allen will round into form- he’s been hurt. Hopkins would be on my team yesterday, and Hawkins probably would to. You can wait on Hawkins as it’s a bye week for Cleveland.
Thanks Dorian. Didn’t do the trade. By the way can only drop Tate for Hopkins or another wr?
byron or any other member of RW –
would you mind taking some time to help me out with a question i asked a couple days ago? i know you guys are probably swamped with a million questions so i can understand where it got lost in the shuffle but i really need help trying to trade for a better qb! here’s the link to my comment: http://rosterwatch.com/trapassos-finest-fantasy-matchups-week-3#comment-10997
if i can’t complete a trade then i’ll probably dump tannehill for big ben since he’s got tampa this week or should i take a shot on bortles/bridgewater?
I would throw an offer out for Foles, Luck, Stafford, or Cousins. You might be able to get Romo for less and he’ll probably be about as good. Big Ben is an option too, and he’ll probably only get better with Lance Moore coming on from injury. I’d wait on Bortles or Bridgewater until they get a few games under their belts.
I’m in a 14 team league and currently 3-0, It’s a deep league and I feel like I need to make something happen at WR as i’m pretty thin…
QB- Manning & E Manning
RB-Jennings, Sproles, F. Jackson, P. Thomas
WR- Cobb, Benjamin,Jackson, S. Johnson (just plucked off waivers)
TE- Gronk, Kelce
K- Santos, Prater
Def- Houston
I was offered Demaryius Thomas for D Jax and Gronk… I’m still not sold on Thomas as being 100% healthy but there’s upside for having a combo with him and manning.
The waiver Wire gets vultured pretty quick, I do like Marvin Jones is available and Hunter was just dropped. I’m thinking about trying to maybe make some sort of a pkg deal Using either Gronk or Kelce to land someone.
Any thoughts? Scoring is .25 per reception, 1 pt per 20yds, and return yds count
Thanks,
At 3-0, I don’t think you necessarily need to make anything happen. I like all of your receivers, and I think they’ll only get better. I think Kelce trade value is kind of inflated right now, so he might be someone to package in trade if you feel like you must ad receiver depth. I would probably drop Johnson for either Jones or Hunter.
-trashman
I proposed this trade to someone…
My (McCoy, Cobb, and Josh Gordon) for his (Calvin, Jennings, and Cooks).
He keeps going back and forth and can’t decide what to do. Is this a good trade for me? My other rb’s are Ball, Sproles, and Bush. I’m worried about Ball the rest of the way letting me down, so maybe i should hang on to McCoy?
What’s you record? If you have a winning record right now, I would probably sit tight. I would be putting out offers to trade Ball if I were you. His schedule is tough all season.
I’m 1-2, but only because I have made the wrong decisions on who to keep on my bench vs start all week. Otherwise, i’d be 3-0.
Week two I sat Sproles. Week three i sat Bush, Benjamin, Cousins. I’m starting Cousins tonight over Brady…good move?
I’m worried about Montee Ball in my team.
Its 12-team standard league. I’m in 7th place (2-1)
Is Frank Gore for Montee Ball a good trade for this season?
Also I have made a trade offer to get Kelvin Benjamin for Terrance Williams.
I would appreciate any advice/comments.
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Montee Ball, Ryan Mattews, Lamar Miller, Matt Asiata. (I couldn’t get Knile Davis or Donald Brown)
WR: AJ Green, Roddy White, Terrance Williams(Dropped M Sanu for Week 4), E. Sanders, B. Quick
TE: L. Donnell, Travis Kelce
K: Nick Novak
Def: New England
Waiver Claim : Charles Clay for Mark Ingram.
Thanks in advance.
topgun999-
– No- we would not trade Ball for Gore. We would do it for Gore and a solid upgrade elsewhere on our roster in maybe a 2 for 2 swap.
– If you get Kelvin for Terrance- that is a steal. Hopefully it happens, if not you might have to toss in a little bit more. Kelvin would be an amazing addition to your lineup.
– You need to keep Brady, but start figuring out some other options at QB immediately. We think he’ll heat up- but streaming QBs or grabbing somebody hot from your waiver wire is a big-time option right now. Good luck.
Thanks Byron,
I’m waiting for Brady to get back his mojo, I used Jake Locker on week#2 but dropped him on week#3 with big hopes on Brady taking on OAK. My league is running thin on QB’s on waivers or FA, except me all others have a backup QB.
I need 3 of the following 4 to start this weekend: Forte, Bush, Bradshaw or Richardson. Who sits considering this weekend’s schedule? I was going sit the obvious – Richardson, but with Bush facing the Jets, now I’m not as sure?
You’re right on. I actually think Bush’s style matches up with the Jets as good as anyone.