Top 50 Players With Hidden Risk: Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Odell Beckham
by Alan Seslowsky

During our fantasy football drafts, we come out feeling good about our first four picks in most 12 team leagues. These players form the foundation of our teams and represent the hard work, research, and time spent mock drafting in the off-season. However, in those first 50 picks, there are some excellent players with not so obvious risks. Below is a short list of players that, while talented, may carry some downside not being talked about enough in fantasy circles.

Nick Chubb (ADP 15, RB10)

There is no question that Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He is rightfully ranked among the top 5 RBs to lead the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs. Nick Chubb is currently getting drafted as a top 15 overall fantasy pick. The draft market may not be accounting for that he is teamed up with another elite RB in Kareem Hunt. We saw a glimpse of what Hunt’s impact will be on Chubb’s fantasy value last season.  In week 1-6, before the Brown’s bye week and without Hunt active, Chubb was averaging 3.3 receptions per game. Once Hunt was activated in week 10, Chubb averaged just 1.3 receptions per game for the rest of the season. It is fair to conclude that Kareem Hunt may represent a lower ceiling for Chubb. We still think Nick Chubb is a fine foundational RB for your fantasy team, however, you should understand there is not so obvious risk as it relates to Chubb’s receptions and PPR upside. 

 

Jonathan Taylor (ADP 46, RB16)

There have not been more vocal advocates of Jonathan Taylor than RosterWatch co-founders Alex Dunlap and Byron Lambert. During the whole pre-draft process, RosterWatch’s experienced rookie evaluators have projected Taylor to be an elite NFL runner in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. Taylor’s landing spot with the Colts and their top 5 rated offensive line, only furthered the case for JT. His draft cost is currently in the late fourth round. We believe Taylor is likely a future first-round fantasy pick for the next half-decade. However, for 2020, there are some risks that we must acknowledge. The Colts have not come out and said Taylor will be leaned on as the focal point of the running game. In fact, they have praised Marlon Mack and made a special point to say that Nyheim Hines will be in the mix as well. We still believe that Taylor is the most talented RB on the team, but in a year where rookies may struggle to get integrated into the offenses due to a shortened off-season, there is a risk of a slow start for Taylor. In our judgment, his fourth-round ADP fairly accounts for the downside, but you should be aware of it while drafting.  

 

Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP 29, WR11)

As great as Odell Beckham was during his time in New York, it is hard to ignore what we saw in 2019. His debut season with Cleveland was disappointing for fantasy. He was getting drafted as a fringe first-round pick last season and finished 2019 as the WR25. Reports surfaced that he was not 100% healthy, but his performance was cause for concern. New Browns Head Coach, Kervin Stefanski, did not prioritize WRs in his plans while designing the Viking’s offense in 2019 and was the most run-heavy coordinator in the league. The Vikings WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen averaged about 14 and 11 fantasy points per game in Stefanski’s offense. Odell Beckham is a more dynamic player than those two, but there is reason to question his target upside. Browns pass-catchers Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, and the highest paid TE in the NFL, Austin Hooper, will undoubtedly get a healthy share of the targets. The upside for Odell remains intact, but there is under-the-radar risk for Beckham.