Trashman’s Fantasy Fallout Going Into Week 16 of the 2023 NFL Season

This week proved a brutal reminder that anything can happen in the playoffs, as usual flops feasted and regular studs stumbled. We’ll pick up the pieces and move forward as we evaluate the fantasy fallout going into Week 16…

 

Raiders – 63 @ Chargers – 21

• Isaiah Spiller had 16 carries for 50 yards in this one, pacing the Chargers backfield in touches, but it’s impossible to tell what the distribution will be like going forward as LA fired their HC and GM following this blowout. The worst part is that Austin Ekeler(9/38), who’s been a fixture in high end fantasy production for so long, is a flex at best this week.

 

• Josh Palmer(4/113/1) erupted in his first game back from injury. It should be mentioned that Keenan Allen (heel) didn’t play this, so Palmer was the no.1 WR for LA. With Easton Stick under center, Palmer isn’t an advised play again this week, unless Allen can’t make it back on the field.

 

• Zamir White(20/85/1) got his first start on Thursday, in Josh Jacob’s stead, and he did a fine job. Jacob’s has a good shot to make it back in time for WK16, but White makes for a RB2 with upside if he can’t go. The matchup with KC is not a bad one for RBs.

 

• Tre Tucker(3/59/2) caught 2 TDs on Thursday, but this was likely an artifact of the insane game script. Davante Adams, and to a much lesser extent Michael Mayer, is the only fantasy viable Raiders pass-catcher in WK16.

 

Vikings – 24 @ Bengals – 27

• Ty Chandler(26/157/1) logged a whopping 26 touches with Alexander Mattison(ankle) sitting out. With a healthy 5.7 YPC, Chandler could lay claim to the lead position, regardless if Mattison returns this week or not. If Mattison sits, Chandler is still a strong start versus a stout Detroit front.

 

• Rookie Jordan Addison(6/111/2) benefits from Justin Jefferson being on the field to take all the attention. He’s a start this week against a shaky Lions secondary.

 

• Tee Higgins(4/61/2) had a late surge with Ja’Maar(4/64) Chase leaving with a shoulder injury. If Chase can’t go this week, Higgins would be a must start against the Steelers.

 

• He didn’t do much in the box score, but Chase Brown‘s(10/51) touches(10) are getting too close for comfort to Joe Mixon‘s(13). Mixon managed to score, saving his day, but we’re having to hope for a TD this week to make him worth the start. Brown makes for an upside flex in PPR formats against the Steelers this week.

 

Steelers – 13 @ Colts – 30

• The Steelers offense is even more pitiful than usual with Mitch Trubisky under center. Kenny Pickett is nearing a return, but tbh, he’s not good either. Diontae Johnson(4/62/1) seems to be their only offensive player impervious to the QB on the field. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris eat into each other’s action too much to bother with in the playoffs unless absolutely necessary.

 

• Zack Moss intends to play this week, despite leaving the game with a shoulder injury. Jonathan Taylor(thumb) could suit up as well, so we could have a nightmare decision in the making. If they both make it back this week, we have to give the edge to Taylor, but anything could happen. I feel for those having to make the decision, if it needs to be made. Trey Sermon had 17 carries for 88 yards and would be the starter if neither Taylor or Moss returns this week.

 

• Michael Pittman will go through concussion protocol this week, after a somewhat productive WK15. DJ Armstrong(2/48/1) made his first appearance this season, with Pittman going down, and scored. It seems more likely that Josh Downs or Alec Pierce would benefit if Pittman can’t go this week. Montgomery is someone to watch in DFS though.

 

Broncos- 17 @ Lions – 42

• Samaje Perine(7/48) played 39% of snaps compared to 48% for Javonte Williams(14/20), but Perine’s usage was mostly predicated on the blowout game script. Williams will have a slightly better draw against New England this week, but the game should be closer so he’s a safer play.

 

• Jameson William’s(4/47) 7 targets were encouraging, but they’re hard to predict this week, as the Lions are unlikely to blow the Vikings out. He’s got upside this week in a plus matchup, but he’s more of a DFS play.

 

Jets – 0 @ Dolphins – 30

• Zach Wilson suffered a concussion on Sunday and will have to go through protocol to play this week. Trevor Siemian(14/110/0/2) was abysmal behind him, and the only advisable Jets play this week doesn’t exist if Wilson can’t go.

 

• Devon Achane(12/62) seemed healthy, but Raheem Mostert(17/43/1) dominated all the goal line work in this one. Maybe the Dolphins were easing Achane back and didn’t want to throw him into situations in which he might get beat up. Achane actually seems like a stronger play against Dallas this week, a team that seems to have some trouble with nimble, pass-catching RBs.

 

Texans – 19 @ Titans – 16

• Noah Brown(8/82/1) bogarted the targets(11) in this one, with the nearest pass-catcher having only 5. Even if Nico Collins returns this week, Brown is worth a gamble if CJ Stroud also makes it back onto the field.

 

• The Texans sold out to stop the run, leaving Derrick Henry with only 10 yards on the day. If you survived the week intact using him, he will have a top 5 matchup against the Seahawks this week. Tyjae Spears(10/37) led the backfield in yards, but his ceiling has been shown to be too low to flirt with in the playoffs.

 

Buccaneers – 34 @ Packers – 20

• David Moore(2/68/1) was just promoted to the active roster this past week. He could continue to work as the 3rd WR in Tampa, but he’s only viable in DFS this week in a matchup that could prove fruitful. Jacksonville can’t contain the pass.

 

• With both Christian Watson(hamstring) and Jayden Reed(toe) probably being questionable this week, Dontayvion Wicks(6/97) and Romeo Doubs(3/30) deserve long looks, even in a tough matchup with Carolina. Wicks is the better pickup of the two. Tucker Craft(4/57/1) would also see a boost in looks if Reed and Watson sit.

 

Giants – 6 @ Saints – 24

• The Saints effectively stymied the Giants in all offensive aspects on Sunday. Darius Slayton(4/63) got 8 looks. Slayton should operate as the Giants no.1 WR this week against a burnable Eagles secondary.

 

• The Saints’ aerial attack was pitiful without Chris Olave, with Alvin Kamara being the only player to top 40 yards receiving. The Giants have a bad secondary, so that wasn’t an excuse. Juwan Johnson(2/38/1) scored, but he only had 2 targets on the day. You’re best avoiding all Saints other than Kamara this week, if Olave can’t make it back.

 

Falcons – 7 @ Panthers – 9

• Don’t know what’s up with Bijan Robinson(8/14), as Tyler Allgeier(15/51) and Cordarrelle Patterson(6/0) both got snaps before he did on Sunday. The Panther’s defense is normally a run funnel, but they cinched things up in this one. The Falcons get another soft run D in the Colts this week, but after this performance, it’ll be hard to trust Robinson. Allgeier seems to maintain a solid role despite Robinson’s involvement.

 

• We weren’t expecting much from Drake London(2/24) this week against Carolina’s solid secondary. He seems to do well in plus matchups, but his floor is hellishly low in difficult ones. His matchup this week with Indy is middling, so it could go either way. I’m not using him unless I have no other decent options this week.

 

• The Panthers are all in on Chuba Hubbard(24/103) these days. Miles Sanders(8/13) can’t be played in any format this week, even in a good matchup with the Packers.

 

Bears – 17 @ Brown – 20

• Roschon Johnson(9/60) led all Bears RBs in touches(9), despite logging fewer carries(5) than D’Onta Foreman(6) and Khalil Herbert(6). It made sense to go with a pass-catching back against the stalwart Browns, but it’ll be difficult to determine touches against an almost league worst Cardinals run defense. Johnson has the highest upside of the bunch, so we’ll go with him this week.

 

• Cedric Tillman(4/52) saw 8 targets against the Bears, 3 behind David Njoku(11) and tied with Amari Cooper(8). The rookie is averaging 5.5 targets over the last 4 contests, but he’s yet to break out. He’s best left for deep DFS tourneys this week.

Chiefs – 27 @ Patriots – 17

• It’s official. Rashee Rice(9/91/1) is the Chiefs; no.1 WR. This performance cements it. You can’t pick him up in many leagues anymore, but there’s no question that you can start him in the playoffs. He faces the Raiders this week, the team he had his best game of the season(8/107/1) against in WK12.

 

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire(17/101/1) thrived against New England on Sunday, but HC Andy Reid has already stated that he expects Isiah Pacheco back this week. The Chiefs know CEH well enough to not lean on him too much this week if Pacheco is healthy.

 

• Kevin Harris(4/25/1) managed the only rushing score for the Patriots on Sunday, to the chagrin of Zeke Elliott(16/46) owners. If Rhamondre Stevenson can’t return this week, Harris makes for a deep league and DFS option against a vulnerable Broncos run defense.

 

49ers – 45 @ Cardinals – 29

• Emari Demercado(5/70/1) scored on a 49 yard scamper but did little otherwise. The game script allowed for some nutty action, but Demercado is best left on benches this week.

 

• Elijah Higgins(4/44/1) led Arizona WRs in fantasy, with Marquise Brown leaving with a heel injury and Michael Wilson doing little in his first game back from injury. Higgins’ line isn’t one to chase going into WK16.

 

Commanders – 20 @ Rams – 28

• Jacoby Brissett replaced Sam Howell in the 4th quarter, but HC Rivera said it was only to protect Howell and Howell will remain the starter. The Commanders play the Jets this week, so my hands are off all Washington WRs.

 

• Rookie RB Chris Rodriguez(10/35) out touched Antonio Gibson(9/35) 10-8 on Sunday, though Gibson did get 5 targets. It looks like Rodriguez is the preferred 2 down back if Robinson can’t go this week, though Gibson could see plenty of work in the passing game, as the Commanders WRs will be hard pressed to get much done against the Jets secondary.

 

• Demarcus Robinson(3/67/1) scored his 3rd TD in as many weeks on Sunday. Tutu Atwell(concussion) sat out, but Robinson seems to get work regardless, and Stafford trusts him in the endzone. He’s a deep league flex in a tough matchup with New Orleans this week.

 

Cowboys – 10 @ Bills – 31

• Dallas couldn’t get anything going outside of a garbage time CeeDee Lamb run. True to form, the Cowboys faltered on the road. They’ll be on the road this week again, but in a likely shootout with Miami. If you have a piece of the Cowboys offense, you should play them.

 

• Ty Johnson contributed 10 touches for 58 yards on Sunday but injured his shoulder in the process. It won’t affect James Cook either way, but Latavius Murray(5/11/1) could see some extra run against the Chargers if Johnson is out.

 

• The Bills’ pass-catchers did little to nothing on Sunday, but they didn’t have to. They’ll all have better chances against the Chargers pitiful secondary this week.

 

Ravens – 23 @ Jaguars – 7

• Gus Edwards(17/69/1) had his best game in several weeks and makes for a strong play for the remainder of the playoffs, as Keaton Mitchell went down with a season ending ACL injury. Justice Hill(5/23) could get more run moving forward too, though I’d probably fade him against San Fran this week.

 

• You know things are not going well when Jamal Agnew(2/70/1) leads the Jags in receiving. Zay Jones sustained what could be a bad hamstring injury, so Agnew and Parker Washington(4/12) could see significant targets against a soft Bucs secondary this week. Washington had 6 targets to Agnew’s 2, so he is the better pickup.