PRO VEGAS TOOL: Week 16 NFL Flex Values Based on Vegas Player Props (RB, WR, TE)

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 16 DFS research. We’ve aggregated all the open NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring in this opening weekend of action.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings/FanDuel pricing as a tool in gaining an edge.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making decisions for our season-long leagues as well.

PLEASE NOTE:

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers get them to us through Saturday evenings in-season and later in the week during the playoffs. Please check back leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed on the sheet.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them as early as we do. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two props given, while accounting for juice.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here once available.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic production projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

45 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Crazy Horse

    Merry Xmas RW! Great year, great advice!
    I’m rolling with Dak over Baker since I think its more likely that Dak will have at least one passing score to Zeke, Chubb doesn’t seem to be involved in the passing game as much as Zeke. What do you think?

    If Keenan is active would you risk playing him over S Shepard or Golladay?

    If Juju is out who would you lean on — Shepard, Golladay D Hamilton or tim patrick?

    thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Fine w/ that QB decision

      Yes on Keenan

      Shepard or Hamilton

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Merry Christmas to you too Crazy Horse! Thanks for being a maniacal member of RW Nation. Enjoy your friends and family, and be safe and happy this holiday season. Cheers to a great ’19!

    3. ↓ Post By bretttushingham@hotmail.com

      Championship game today, Brees or Luck? Thanks!

  2. ↓ Post By Trace17

    One problem, 2 different championships.
    One standard league and one 0.5 PPR league.
    Damien Williams vs. Jamal Williams for flex? Thanks guys!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      LOL, infinitely better than 2Girls1Cup

      I think the safe play is Jamaal Williams

      Cheers brother!

  3. ↓ Post By FF_Hookem

    McGuire or Fournette in PPR?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob McGuire

  4. ↓ Post By John Trombley

    Championship game, leaning Luck over Russ but Baldwin is heating up. Roll with Luck?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Go with the rankings

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        If rankings are too close to call in your mind, play the matchup rating and the Vegas game total

  5. ↓ Post By FF_Hookem

    Also, talk to me on how you feel about Goff vs Baker. The 14 pt Rams line makes me think Vegas expects Goff to put up points without Gurley , but your rankings have Baker higher. Thoughts?

    Thanks again for all that you do. You guys are the best!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      FF_Hookem……You’re feeling MANIACAL today in the comments section of these articles. Nearly Diabolical!

      1. ↓ Post By FF_Hookem

        Yessir!!!! I only have one speed!!

        I gusss I’ll lean Baker based on the RW rankings?

  6. ↓ Post By @VeganPhoPlez

    ‪Start/Sit RB2: Mack/Cook/Damien WR2: Robbie/Pettis/Hogan/Reynolds/Corey Davis. Diggs is my WR1. PPR for the ship! ‬

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob Dalvin Cook + Robbie Anderson

      If you win , hopefully you’ll quit being a Trashman, and spring for some animal or seafood protein in that Pho this New Year! Those Vietnamese meatballs, and the beef tendon is the JAM!!!

  7. ↓ Post By fabnation

    Merry Christmas RW fam! Need that wisdom to bring home the chip. 1pt ppr need one between these three banged up Julio/Marlon Mack/Damien Williams?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob Mack

  8. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Prob Dalvin Cook + Robbie Anderson

    If you win , hopefully you’ll quit being a Trashman, and spring for some animal or seafood protein in that Pho this New Year! Those Vietnamese meatballs, and the beef tendon is the JAM!!!

  10. ↓ Post By fabnation

    Thanks!

  11. ↓ Post By Coldbear

    1ppr RB2: Mixon, Cook or Derek Henry??

    1. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

      I lean with Mixon.

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      They’re all good plays. Too close to call. In PPR I prob agree w/ KWillee small edge to Mixon. No way two of those guys should be on your bench

  12. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

    Been riding with P Rivers all season to the championship week! The plan for the last several weeks has been to pivot to Baker this week. I know I should stick to my guns but having second thoughts. Any thoughts???

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Tough call, I think I might stick w/ Rivers

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Sometimes he goes big in the toughest of matchups. Watch Keenan’s status. If Allen is out – might go back to Baker

        1. ↓ Post By Kwillee@hotmail.com

          OH THE HUMANITY!!!! Thought you would pull me off from the ledge but I stud you are shoving over the edge… Rankings and matchup tool be damned!!! LOL. UUUUUGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

          1. Post By Byron Lambert

            Keep in mind I’m a Rivers aficionado, but that said I’ve owned him enough to know you bench him at home in tough matchups in a critical fantasy situation at your own risk

  13. ↓ Post By Devil U Know

    Looking to bring home the Gold and the Glory for RosterWatch Na-tion!!!!

    And, of course, some caishe for myself…

    Do I trust Fournette or plug in Damien Williams instead?

    1. ↓ Post By Oldschool92

      Damien Williams is the play with Ware Doubtful…Fournette might as well have doubtful with his comments that he is out of game shape and getting pulled after the first half last week….but your call.

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob Williams

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        *If Ware is ruled out

  14. ↓ Post By Oldschool92

    No Steeler Props? Just Saints?

  15. ↓ Post By polocash7@aol.com

    Need a TE for Championship week Everett or LaCosse. Goff is my QB if that helps. Thanks. Roster Watch Rocks!!

  16. ↓ Post By kshouse73

    Ppr 50+ touchdown bonus 100 years bonus rb/flex decision
    Michel
    Fournette
    D Williams
    J Williams
    ChubbL
    L mcoy
    R Anderson
    J Landry
    M Evans
    Start 2 rb 2wr 2 flex

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      d williams, chubb, anderson, landry, evans, j williams

  17. ↓ Post By kbock69@yahoo.com

    Flex – Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams or Tarik Cohen, Standard Scoring (no PPR)

    1. ↓ Post By kbock69@yahoo.com

      ^^ Need 1 ^^

  18. ↓ Post By CanadianMonkey

    hey guys need some help … im a huge underdog going into my championship game … who would you say has a bigger upside between … foster (buf) or ross (cin)

  19. ↓ Post By lunacorbin@yahoo.com

    When will you guys have a dynasty players rankings sheet out?

  20. ↓ Post By sally_espejo@sbcglobal.net

    Just wanted to thank you guys for all the help this year. Without your help, winning the championship would not have been possible. Even when some of the Trashman’s advice seemed like cockamamie fool’s gold, I took all your advice and parlayed into a 13-3 record and championship. Thank you again.

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