Week 16 DFS Cheat Sheets (DraftKings, FanDuel) and HyperDFS Lineup Generator Now Available

The epic DFS Cheat Sheets for FanDuel and DraftKings are now LIVE and available for download to RosterWatch PRO members.

PRO members, click here to head over to the downloads section to use the sheets or give HyperDFS a spin.

 

screen-shot-2016-12-06-at-6-00-01-pm
NEW! Check out the new and improved version of our professional lineup builder, RosterWatch HyperDFS, also in your downloads section!

*****As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise. Sometimes we will update the sheet through the weekend as information comes in from injury reports, Vegas or elsewhere*****

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

37 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By smithg1095

    I need to choose 1 WR in a .5 PPR. D. Pettis…Mike Williams…C. Samuel and D. Hamilton?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Pettis or Williams

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Prob Williams

  2. ↓ Post By renourka

    Alex, Byron, and the Trashman – Thanks again for your help this year!

    Last questions from me this year for my season longs as I battle for 1st and 3rd respectively! Here we go!

    Already starting the following in my half-PPR championship:
    Mahomes, Zeke, Mixon, J. Cook but my WRs and FLEX is where I need some reassurance!

    Need 2 WR and a 1 FLEX:
    K. Allen vs. BAL
    Sutton @OAK
    D. Williams @SEA
    J. Williams @NYJ
    Drake vs. JAX
    Reynolds @ARI
    Ty Williams vs. BAL
    Gallup vs TB

    Pretty sure I gotta roll with Keenan tomorrow night but losing Gordon puts me in a tough spot for WR2 and my FLEX decision is even tougher! Right now I’m leaning towards Sutton at WR2 but he’s burned me a lot in the past and keep flipping between both Williams at FLEX?

    AND for my PPR league:
    Starting Luck, AB, Keenan Allen, McDonald

    Need 2 RB and 1 FLEX here:
    Michel vs. BUF
    D. Williams @SEA
    J. Williams @NYJ
    G. Edwards @LAC
    Martin vs. DEN
    Foster @NE

    Really just comes down to the top 4 options there I think? Please help me narrow it down to the best 3!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      LOL last quetion a MILE fucking long. Of Course!

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        I kind of like Gallup as that WR2, agree w/ your sentiment on Keenan

        1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

          Flex prob Jamaal williams

          1. Post By Byron Lambert

            Both Williams at RB if Ware sits, if ware plays just slide Edwards in

            Flex I wld go w/ next highest ranked RB. Don’t see how you can play Foster over those guys

  3. ↓ Post By Adam

    1pt ppr

    Need 1
    J white, J Williams or d Williams

    Need 3
    Dj Moore, m Williams, d Westbrook, d Thomas, k stills

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob JW

      Thomas + MW + use matchup tool to choose b/t Stills and DW

  4. ↓ Post By Uncle_Maynard

    Made it to the ship with a garbage qb situation. I need to pick one of these trash options. Winston, Jackson, Allen or Carr.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob Winston or Allen

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Actually nix that- LJAx highest in our rankings so that’s who I wld roll with

  5. ↓ Post By StageMaster

    PPR league….C. Davis or D. Hamilton?

    Half PPR choose 2…D. Johnson, D. Williams, D. Baldwin, CJ Anderson(if Gurley is inactive)?

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      The more I look at this the more I think it’s Hamilton esp w/ Sutton limited.

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob Johnson + Baldwin , maybe DW if Ware sits and you’re feeling it. In that case I’d put him in over Baldwin

  6. ↓ Post By FF_Hookem

    Have to start Jaylen Samuels over Engram (whether Conner is healthy or not), right?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      With Conner our you have to feel great about Samuels

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        *out

  7. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

    GENTLEMEN,
    First and foremostly

    I want to wish you and your families a safe and Merry Christmas.

    Even though u havent DM’ed me on twitter like some of my friends (yes friends) in the banana hammock boys league 🙁

    I consider you guys friends (my fantasy family)

    Its a magical time of year so please enjoy your families as much as possible, Byron and TM you dont know what youre missing not having kids this time of year. (or in TMs case not aware of how many kids he has)

    Whom ever reads this post please pass it on to the other 2 .

    Cheers
    Now on to my question,
    Much to my displeasure, i wound up in the finals in one of the leagues where i had a weak team. And missed the playoffs where i had a throbbing monster ..see my BHB team.

    Do i roll with Aaron at qb where he may be on a snap count
    Or josh allen?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Thanks for the kind note BVIC. I will pass on, and likewise!

      You have been a vigorous and loyal supporter for a long time. One of RW Nations very best, thank you!

      Don’t worry Trashman and I will work on making some kids for you. At least, we’ll try to get in some good practice this holiday season and for the New Year.

      Always hurts when an epic throbber goes unfulfilled. Hat tip to the BHB league.

      I’d roll w/ Rodgers

  8. ↓ Post By dmcclimo@gmail.com

    Championship again thank you guys. Play Heineki over stafford or eli?

    And should i pick up miami def and play over either the saints or baltimore? Its a 2 def play league.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I don’t know how you can play Heineki. If you want to get trashy I think Darnold is sneaky this wk.

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Kessler and Carr can also be considered as decent dumpster divers. Pretty hard to like Stafford and Eli that much

        1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

          Yes def over the Saints. Close call on BAL.

      2. ↓ Post By dmcclimo@gmail.com

        Thanks Byron. Yea its a 2 qb league and there are no qbs left on the wire so when i lost cam i am left with playing eli and stafford. Cool thanks again. U guys are the best…

        1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

          Appreciate you, happy holidays

  9. ↓ Post By Nord.Adam@gmail.com

    I have gurley who plays at 4 pm. I have cj Anderson and John kelly also. It does not sound too promising for gurley even if he does play. I have Jamal Williams but he plays at 1 pm. Would you play it safe and play Williams and sit gurley

    1. ↓ Post By Nord.Adam@gmail.com

      Also happy holidays and thank you for your contributions and insight this year. Cheers.

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Likewise to you and yours. Be safe and have fun!

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I think you have to monitor the news on Gurley until close to 1 pm as possible. If his status gets clearer and sounds good I think you wait and play him. If it’s still unclear i’d roll w/ JW

  10. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

    🙁

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Answered above

    2. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

      Lol 🙂

  11. ↓ Post By gdavis102089@yahoo.com

    Let’s win the ship!

    Pick 3, half ppr

    Melvin
    Joe mixon
    Phil lindsay
    Chris carson

    Thanks for the help all season!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Think you go the Top 3 guys. No problem sitting Gordon for Carson if you are worried about Gordon’s health or matchup

  12. ↓ Post By coopera

    Hi, RW.
    If Julio sits, do I start Mayfield over Matt Ryan?
    Thanks

Leave a Reply