PRO VEGAS TOOL: Week 5 DFS Flex Values Based on Vegas Player Props

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 5 DFS research. We’ve aggregated all the open NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring in this opening weekend of action.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings/FanDuel pricing as a tool in gaining an edge.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making decisions for our season-long leagues as well.

PLEASE NOTE:

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers get them to us through Saturday evenings in-season and later in the week during the playoffs. Please check back leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed on the sheet.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them as early as we do. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two props given, while accounting for juice.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here once available.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic production projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

31 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Lonny5

    Need input,

    12 team full point ppr. Can start 2rb,2wr, 2wr/rb/te flexes.

    Would you trade Kenyan Drake, Edmonds, and Pollard (he’s a zeke owner) for Travis Kelce and Benny Snell? (Other owner also has duke johnson I could maybe get as a throw in for “rb depth” added back)

    My Rest of Team
    Antonio Gibson
    James Conner (have McFarland right now to cuff)
    James White

    Hopkins
    Woods
    Ceedee
    Shenault
    Corey Davis

    Schultz
    Logan Thomas

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I’d probably do it- it’s an aggressive winning move. BUT, my two hang ups- what to do with Dalton Schultz? Hate letting him rot on your bench. Also does this leave you with only Gibson and Conner? Obv having Snell makes you feel a little better about only rolling 2 RBs deep. Meaning you will have to be vigilant on replenishing your RB3/4 slot. If you are up for it, and aware of all this- and have a plan- I think this is a good calculated risk to take. Kelce is a huge difference maker

      1. ↓ Post By Lonny5

        Great take there. The other owner got cold feet and then upped his demand to Conner. I am going to assess things using your same perspective above. Thanks again. We appreciate what you guys do.

  2. ↓ Post By Spinman

    Counter trade question – still on a tradecast high – I am going to reject their (1-3) offering of Edelman + Higbee for my (2-2) Julio Jones.

    My .5 PPR 10 person league team is
    M Thomas, J Jones, A Robinson, D Slayton;
    M Gordon, A Gibson, M Ingram, J McKinnon;
    E Engram, TJ Hockenson

    My counter idea is

    1. ↓ Post By Spinman

      Ooooops!

      Counter offer is offering my Julio + Ingram for their Aaron Jones. They have underperforming WRs.

      Thank you!

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Good thinking Spinman! Thanks for listening!

  3. ↓ Post By seanmgrady@yahoo.com

    No Rushing Prop for Gaskin or David Johnson kind of skews the numbers doesn’t it?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      my fault, they didn’t get exported, should have double-checked. Glad you mentioned it, DJ is showing up like a damn monster!! 😉

      1. ↓ Post By seanmgrady@yahoo.com

        all good! keep up the great work!

  4. ↓ Post By The Eradicator

    No Arizona vs.Jets props?
    Me thinks Vegas might be sniffing a Kliff swindle is forthcoming. Perhaps Drake gets the D. Johnson treatment tomorrow? Could It be wheels up Edmonds tomorrow?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Def one of the main things we will be watching for!

  5. ↓ Post By AbnerLofton

    .5 ppr

    Carson owner, should I drop Hyde for Emmanuel Sanders, then I could play Thomas/Sanders Monday night if Thomas doesn’t play, or I could keep it safe and just roll our Hollywood ?

    So Thomas/Sanders or Hollywood?

  6. ↓ Post By mrbazzball@aol.com

    PPR Who am i using in my flex Drake, Edmonds, D Freeman, Landry, AJ Green. Thanks Guys….

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      I have a similar choice to make in my league. The data points are pointing toward one of the ARZ RBs, and either is a reasonable play. I’m rolling with Edmonds, but it can easily be Drake.

  7. ↓ Post By davidmdan@gmail.com

    Would love some input!!! Thanks guys!

    .75 PPR
    Pick 2

    Kirk
    Edmonds
    Tre’Quan
    Zaccheaus

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Edmonds is. a strong play this week. The coach said Edmonds can be a 3 down back…you slowly feel the momentum shifting that way. Zacc a nice play if Julio is out, if not Tre Smith has been getting it done. If MT back I’d still feel ok with it.

  8. ↓ Post By dsingh

    Ppr Trade Question

    Getting: Gibson
    Giving: Edelman and D.Harris

    RBs: zeke, Gurley, Kelley, D.. Harris, Moss, Edwards

    Wrs: Robinson, Allen, Woods, Edelman, Aiyuk, Claypool, Ford, Hardman and Ruggs

    We can start 2 rbs, 2 wr, 3 flex

    Thanks,
    RW

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      A hard strong yes for me. Gibson won’t be that cheap in another week or 2. Harris is not going to be projectable game to game in my judgment.

  9. ↓ Post By scottfoil@yahoo.com

    1 Pt PPR – Taylor or Mixon @ RB. Need 2 REceivers between Woods, Crowder, Landry or Gage? Thanks in advance.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Im staying with Mixon and his monster breakout game in a league where I have the same choice. Taylor is knotted up in a committee of 3 right now

      For WR I prefer Woods/Crowder. Both solid floor with upside players. Good luck!

  10. ↓ Post By Kfost14

    Would you think of pivoting off of Josh Allen and starting Matt Ryan this week… worried the Titans have another issue which forces that game to not count this week. Thoughts?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      If you are concerned the game won’t play it is a nice safe bet. Will you be able to live with a massive score from JA on your bench?

  11. ↓ Post By DanMach

    D Jones or J Burro.
    I also have Mixon.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Burrow is the floor play believe it or not in this matchup. D Jones the upside guy today vs Dallas. I’d lean Jones, but it is concerning we have not seen usable production this season from Jones. Good luck!

  12. ↓ Post By Skemdog

    Cooks rughs or Beasley. … also gibson McKinnon or freeman

  13. ↓ Post By Skemdog

    Cooks rughs or Beasley. … also gibson McKinnon or freeman

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Think I go Cooks for a bounceback and McKinnon. Monitor Mostert news.

  14. ↓ Post By born2beast

    Burrow or D..Jones?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      this is the week for DJones IMO.

  15. ↓ Post By AbnerLofton

    .5 PPR

    Kelley, Higgins , Shenault, or deebo?

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