In Week 3, the NFL settled down and fantasy football finally provided expected results. The Patriots blew out the Jaguars and most of the projected scores were pretty spot on. Aaron Rodgers continued to look like a future hall-of-famer, while the Cardinals continue to excel in all levels of the game.

But, if we know anything, we know that fantasy football is anything but always predictable. Surprises (to everyone who did not use RosterWatch’s Week 3 Ultimate DFS Cheat Sheet) in the form of Joseph Randle and Devonta Freeman entered the scene and combined for six touchdowns in the same game, while Marshawn Lynch and Chris Ivory were active only in the basic sense.

Last week, I discussed my favorite picks for Week 3 by site and position. The results were pretty positive, so I see no reason in changing now. Below are my top FanDuel and DraftKings DFS picks by position for Week 4.

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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:

QB Andy Dalton– $7,600

The low price isn’t really reflective of his talent and value. He will be highly owned this week, especially after a stellar outing at Week 3, but the low-risk value can be beneficial in the quarterback spot. Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary was torn to shreds by the Green Bay Packers, so expect similar outcome from Dalton and crew.

QB Derek Carr– $7,000

The Chicago Bears “improved” slightly against the Seattle Seahawks last week, but they still are sitting at eighth in the league for most points given up to quarterbacks. The Raiders, who are now at 2-1, have a killer-looking offense for the first time in a long time, and are favored to win in Week 4 for the first time in 27 games. Carr could easily reach the 250-plus yard mark with at least two scores.

RB Lance Dunbar– $5,600

Danny Woodhead probably would be the better play here, but he’s $500 more expensive, with the same abilities and skills that Dunbar has. This is a great bargain for a position that is usually boom or bust.

WR Allen Hurns– $5,300

Allen Robinson will likely be forced to stare into the face of Vontae Davis often this week, which leaves Hurns open for big plays on the other side of the field. The Jaguars are predicted to trail for most of the game, which means they’ll need to rely on the pass game even more – and we saw in Week 3 that passing-game garbage time is Allen Hurns big-play time.

WR Michael Crabtree– $5,800

While Amari Cooper is a better choice, if you can afford him, Crabtree still holds his own value. The Bears have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and are ranked the third-best matchup of the week on the RosterWatch Week 4 Matchup Tool. Crabtree stands to rack up the points. He’ll be on the field for most of the snaps, and is targeted enough on the offense, that a great QB/WR stack exists here between Crabtree and Carr.

TE Martellus Bennett– $5,500

The Raiders defense is among the worst in the league, and is terrible at slowing down tight ends, giving up plenty of points to the position so far in the 2015 season. Gary Barnidge of all people managed 105 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, even with Josh McCown at the helm. So don’t worry about this choice.

TE Coby Fleener– $4,900

With Dwayne Allen out, Fleener has the chance to shine as usual against a terrible defense. Although he’s a boom or bust choice, the Jaguars have given up the fourth most yards to tight ends and are the N0. 7 TE matchup of the week per the Matchup Tool, so, he could be a huge sleeper for Week 4.

Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:

QB Russell Wilson– $7,100

Wilson might be off to a slow start, but last year, he went three games with more than 37 fantasy points each in DraftKings. The Seahawks are sitting at 1-2 for the season thus far, and realize they’ll need to kick it into overdrive soon. If he does this week, he’ll be at an incredibly low ownership rate, which will make him a valuable pick up.

QB Matt Ryan– $6,900

Most fantasy owners are flocking to Aaron Rodgers with his consistent success shown week to week, which leaves a corner in the market for less-owned quarterbacks. Ryan will be facing a solid Houston front, but the game is projected to be one of the highest scoring games for this weekend, so expect Ryan to hit some of those star offensive targets.

RB Karlos Williams– $3,400

$3,400?!? Admittedly, Williams is only this valuable because LeSean McCoy is out of the game. However, Williams has still managed to score in all three games this season, even with McCoy in the starting position. Buffalo loves to run the ball, and the Giants just can’t stop the run; they’ve given up 21.2 fantasy points per game to the running back position alone.

RB Eddie Lacy– $6,900

Lacy is likely owned by very few because of his ankle issues, lackluster performance and the fantasy draw of Packers’ wide receivers. Owning the forgotten running back will have its perks. Lacy has one of the highest rushing prop totals of all NFL runners in Week 4 and Vegas usually knows a thing or two about setting those lines.

RB Melvin Gordon– $4,900

Gordon is due a huge game at some point this season, being that he’s the league leader in elusive rating, breakaway percentage, runs of 15 or more yards and tops in total yardage among rookies. This week, he’ll be at home playing with a team that’s favored by eight points, against a terrible Cleveland defense. Gordon told the San Diego media this week that he’s “hungry” for his first NFL TD. Gordon was a first-round pick and the Chargers’ run-game future.
A true sleeper, indeed.

WR DeMaryius Thomas– $8,100

Arm-wise, Peyton Manning will never return to his former great state. However, last year, Thomas led the league in red-zone targets, and continues to do so this season. He’s posted an average of 22 fantasy points (PPR) in his last two games, and proves to be severely under-owned. Don’t let your distrust for a teammate cloud your judgement.

WR T.Y. Hilton– $6,700

Hilton has lacked the one element that will improve his ownability–opportunity. Without it, he’s lost anyconsistent production numbers, and has fallen by the fantasy waste side. However, this week, he’s at home against the Jaguars, which means that Hilton could finally see the payoff.

TE Jimmy Graham– $6,000

It’s not a huge surprise that Graham continues to make everyone’s DFS list week after week; he’s one of the few players who’re worth a higher-than-normal price. The hefty price will keep the ownership percentage in check, though, so his upside could be larger than most.

TE Greg Olsen– $5,400

Olsen had a huge week against New Orleans last week, and continues to be one of the best passing options for the Panthers. This week, he’ll face another ideal matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Grab him while you can.

Kristen’s Games to Watch

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Oct. 4, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Texans have the 12th-ranked pass defense, but it will be a true test against Julio Jones. The Texans are also coming off a strong game on the ground with 46 rushing attempts for 184 yards. The Falcons have the 12th ranked rush defense, but have given up 4.8 YPC. It will be a close one, and certainly a game that fantasy owners are going to want to watch. If Arian Foster can suit up, he becomes an instant DFS option as the matchup is great and Bill O’Brien will not clear him unless both believe that Foster is truly 100%.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Oct. 4, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Jaguars have given up the third-most points in the league this year. The Jags’ pass-defense is ranked 25th in yards given up, and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.2 percent of their passes with five touchdowns and only one interception. The rush defense has been better, giving up only 3.3 yards per carry and 90.7 yards per game on the ground. While some worry about the health of Andrew Luck, it’s not likely that the Jaguars will cause any huge upset for this game if Luck’s able to go. If Luck is cleared, he makes for a prime contrarian QB target as no one will be on him and he’s had the biggest games of his career vs. Jacksonville.