RWi Week 4 Running Back Touchdown Dependency Tool

Byron BylineWith three weeks’ worth of hay in the barn, it’s time to unroll the first touchdown dependency metrics of the season. Generally speaking, between two players with the same production, long-term, we prefer the less touchdown-dependent player. Those who are heavily reliant on touchdowns often see a decrease in production over the course of the season. Players with more organic production tend to be more reliable relative to their average production on a week-to-week basis.

There is obviously some nuance to each player’s numbers, but this is also a great tool for surveying the general landscape of the fantasy running back position.

Just when you think you have it all figured out. Who would have thought after three weeks, that:

Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren Sproles, Knile Davis, and Chris Ivory would be Top 10 Running Backs?

Fred Jackson has produced identically to LeSean McCoy, and better than Matt Forte?

Joe McKnight, and Lorenzo Taliaferro would outpace Eddie Lacy and Toby Gerhart?

Oh, fantasy football………

TD Dep RB WK 4

11 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By MikeVegas

    Which odds are better?
    Brady wins another SB or the Browns win the SB this century?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      MikeVegas-

      LOL- think it’s a coin flip. Prob- good and bad news for Browns fans. Good luck this week.

  2. ↓ Post By redeclipse2

    Need two out of the group as my rbs. Frank Gore, Matt Asiata or Darren Sproles. PPR full point. Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Asiata for sure, our rankings would say Gore even in PPR but to me it’s a coin flip – they’re getting the same number of touches and Sproles is catching the ball more. Also, SF tough to run on, may have to extend the run w/ short passes. I’m not much help, but gut says Sproles gets slightest edge in PPR.

  3. ↓ Post By mendelbaum

    Cam Newton. I feel like I need to trade some depth to acquire another QB. I’m worried that Newton will avoid running all year. Advice?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      give Cam a little time – I think the offense is going to eventually need to count on his legs a little. I would not trade for a QB but think about playing matchups weekly if you like them better of waiver wire guys, like Big Ben this week in a great matchup. GL.

      1. ↓ Post By mendelbaum

        An issue I have here is I’m in a 14 teamer where everyone thinks it’s necessary to carry a backup. There are only about 7 starting QBs on the wire. I picked up Bortles and cut Quick loose. Hate to lose Quick, I’m like you guys and think he will be a solid option this year. I’m worried about performance and durability on Cam right now.

  4. ↓ Post By grahamhill87

    Non ppr should I dump trent richardson for ben tate

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      We hate them both but probably like TRich a little better ROS.

      1. ↓ Post By grahamhill87

        Ya I don’t like them either t rich is riding pine all year maybe I should dump him for hurns

  5. ↓ Post By Mike

    What would be the best way to apply this for a scoring league in your opinion? Just grab the highest Pts from TD guys?

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