RosterWatch Nation, I have a couple of confessions.

1) I’m in love with Blake Bortles as a player and I have been for quite a while.

2) I’ve been waiting since he was drafted to write about him.

3) In my recent sleep-deprived state I believe he is better (in fantasy) than the quarterbacks some of you have been starting.

The early days of having a newborn in the house are delirious, exhausting and yet strangely satisfying; I intend to take you through the same journey in this week’s Declassified column.

The 2013 NFL Draft’s quarterback class was fairly pathetic with E.J. Manuel being the first quarterback taken all the way down at number 15. In 2014, the Jaguars shocked many fans and Twitter “experts” by taking Blake Bortles out of the University of Central Florida with the third-overall pick.

The Jaguars coaching staff told everyone and their mother in the offseason that Bortles was not starting and it was a redshirt year, but since Chad Henne did what Chad Henne does (fell apart like a soup sandwich), Bortles is now the man. The Jaguars hopes of being an AFC South surprise team have receded faster than Bortles’ hairline, but the rookie QB still has the chance to be a revelation by the end of the year and a fantasy sleeper. He’s not going to be an every-week starter in one-QB leagues, but if you’re streaming quarterbacks he could provide some significant value.

Bortles is still available in 88% of leagues. I’ve been saying for a while that Bortles was the best quarterback of the past two draft classes and he’ll be a Top 10 quarterback by 2016. Time to put my money where my mouth is. (Because if I don’t hide it somewhere it will all get spent on diapers and onesies.)

Week 3: Bortles evades pressure and keeps his eyes down the field to make the completion to fullback Will Ta’ufo’ou

Positives

– Tangible Tools and Skills: I hate to repeat such a cliché but Bortles looks like an NFL quarterback. Look at the dude. At 6’5″ and 232 lbs he looks like a Ben Roethlisberger clone (He trained with Roethlisberger in the offseason). He’s more athletic than Roethlisberger and this helps him extend plays and avoid pressure. He was thought to have “average” arm strength coming out of Central Florida which was complete bullshit not entirely true. So far, Bortles’ arm seems to be stronger than advertised by these self-proclaimed draft gurus with their fat-boy sausage fingers. Furthermore, he probably isn’t done, either. Arm strength can improve early in a quarterback’s career (like Drew Brees’ arm strength did between San Diego and New Orleans.)

– Mental Makeup: Bortles can win games above the neck. He came out of college with a propensity to make one-look reads and quick throws. Although it was the preseason, he appeared to be able to read defenses better than expected. He helped take a pedestrian UCF team to a BCS bowl. Not only does he have the athleticism to escape pressure, he is excellent at sensing it and can evade costly sacks. When he has rushers in his face he hangs tight in the pocket, gets the ball out and takes the hit. So basically, he’s the opposite of Blaine Gabbert. Like RosterWatch has always said, Bortles is a distributor and natural executor of offense.

– Weapons: I really like the bevy of weapons available in Jacksonville if they can all stay healthy. Allen Hurns has been a big surprise since the preseason (Hurns reminds me a lot of Rueben Randle). Cecil Shorts has been a reliable target in Jacksonville for over three years. Allen Robinson has great chemistry with Bortles; I expect him to target Robinson early and often. I hate that Marcedes Lewis is out for 6-8 weeks and that body-catcher Marqise Lee is likely out this week, too, but I think Bortles has enough around him to be successful. All the Jaguars pass-catchers improve with Bortles in the lineup.

– Poor Defense: This Jags defensive unit has stunk it up and owner Shahid Khan is not exactly twisting his mustache in delight just yet. HC Gus Bradley was hired because he was supposed to be a defensive wunderkind out of Seattle but the Jags defense has regressed from 2013 to 2014 and now actually looks worse than it ever did under Jack Del Rio. It’s giving up almost 40 points a game (Side note: this should be a monster game for Philip Rivers). Bortles is not going to get a lot of great field position to score easily but the Jags are going to be playing a ton of catch up. While they’ll probably get their doors blown off, this will give Bortles the chance to rack up some garbage-time points.

– The Matchup: I like Bortles against the Chargers defense. They’re an improving group under defensive coordinator John Pagano (Chuck’s brother) but they aren’t overly intimidating. Melvin Ingram is on the shelf for at least half of the season, Dwight Freeney is now 300 years old and Jarret Johnson is good setting the edge but he’s had all of 4.5 sacks in two years with the Chargers. The Chargers defense has allowed the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the league, so they are far from invincible.

Week 3: Bortles does his best Dan Marino impression with the fake spike to throw to Cecil Shorts. Not exactly an incredible throw or catch, but effective in garbage time.

Negatives

– The Matchup: I know I’m repeating myself. But this matchup is a double-edged sword, and as mentioned, I am sleep-deprived. There are three players that legitimately concern me about Bortles’ prospects for success: Brandon Flowers, Eric Weddle and Corey Liuget. Flowers is likely going to lock down Cecil Shorts, but that will still leave Hurns and Robinson open. Weddle is a big-time center fielder that doesn’t get enough credit as one of the better safeties in the league, probably because his beard is disgusting and unnecessary for warm California weather. I’ve been a huge Corey Liuget fan since he came out and he has really become a monster on the D line and a difference maker. He scares me most of all because he has the biggest chance of wrecking Bortles’ day.

– He’s a rookie: Bortles made some rookie throws and was forcing throws against the Colts. I trust him more than Bridgewater, Manziel and Carr but he’s going to have some face-palming rookie moments. He threw two touchdowns and two picks on Sunday in one half (one of the picks was a crucial pick 6 although the game was already out of hand.)

DECLASSIFIED: Blake Bortles’s Week 4 Fantasy Outlook

Bortles is the starter from here on out. He’s not an every week starter but he’s worth considering if you’re streaming quarterbacks and especially in deep leagues. Some of you may be looking for a bye week replacement for Peyton Manning or Andy Dalton; Bortles can fill in admirably if you’ve been ignoring your backup QB position and you have some talentless schmuck like Jake Locker as a backup. This week I like him better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel and – surprise – Cam Newton.

All factors considered, I would expect Bortles to throw for 300 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

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