Week 5 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position: DraftKings and FanDuel

Kristen Ashly 750A valuable DFS player isn’t always the most popular player.

Scoring three touchdowns in each of the last two games, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman has made many fantasy teams very, very happy. He’ll prove a popular choice again this week, with his growing consistency for point-production, but he’s not the best value for Week 5.

When choosing the right DFS pick, a player must remember to always keep ownership percentage in check with price and matchup for that week. A decent sleeper could have a higher return than a star player with a high ownership-percentage. Most “winning” DFS picks are usually seen when setting your lineup as risky choices with no guarantee of a return. They will have lower-than-average ownership rates, and the vast majority of the fantasy world will not have faith in their production capabilities. But, with DFS, just like in a real NFL game, every weekend is a new chance to beat the odds.

As I do every week, I’ll pick my favorite options by position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Take some chances while the season is still fairly new. The high-risk, high-return options will deplete as the season continues, and we get a fair peek at who looks best at what. Tour the underdog options, and be on the lookout for the next best bargain:

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Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings Week 5:

Sam Bradford, QB- $6,000

Despite the loss to Washington in Week 4, Bradford still managed to rack up 270 yards and three passing touchdowns. His stats continue to improve, showing that his arm is finally warming up to the long throw. Sunday, he completed four of eight throws that were 20 or more yards down field. New Orleans has given up a league-high of 9.8 yards per pass attempt and ranks as the 8th-best WR matchup of the week per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. With his price drop, it might be time to overlook his underwhelming performance thus far.

Matt Ryan, QB- $6,700

Ryan will face the Washington Redskins this week, and while the Redskins defense isn’t the worst in the league anymore, the Falcons have one of the most productive offenses in the game. Ryan plays well at home, so he could have a higher ownership-rate, which will be something that DFS players will have to weigh as a deciding factor in GPP. Grabbing Ryan at the lower cost, though, will offset the price of Julio Jones, making a solid stack option.

T.J. Yeldon, RB- $4,400

Yeldon makes most of my sleeper and DFS-pick lists, as he’s a lesser-played option with solid talent stock. Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson are the only two running backs with more carries than Yeldon this season, who has toted a total of 70 through Week 4. Twice he’s received more than 20 carries in a single game this season, including 22 against the Colts for his career 100-yard outing. Tampa Bay crumbles to pieces against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per rush. Yeldon will once again be a great bargain grab for any format.

Dion Lewis, RB- $4,800

The Patriots are off their bye week, and so all hands are on the New England fantasy deck. Lewis may not get the majority of the work with Blount in the backfield, but he does well with the opportunities he does get–he brought in 37 yards and one touchdown on eight carries in Week 3, and 40 yards with a touchdown on seven carries in Week 2. He continues to show solid catch production as his main source of fantasy value – especially on DK which is PPR-scoring – having five or more catches in all Patriots games this year. At this price, on a team with a sturdy offense, Lewis is a great bargain play.

Brandin Cooks, WR- $5,900

The Eagles rank 29th in fantasy points given up to receivers; number one wideouts have registered 103.5 yards per game against them. Cooks could captialize off a poor defense like that, if he can increase his opportunities. He’s only been targeted 31 times in four games, but the low cost makes picking up Cooks easier to swallow. If he can’t deliver against the Eagles, he’s not likely to sustain any value, so cut him out of your DFS-life moving forward if he fails to deliver this week.

Julio Jones, WR- $9,200

After last week’s lethargic performance, it might be hard to swallow one the highest price you’ll find attached to a wide receiver. Last week, Jones produced only 7.8 fantasy points; the huge lead over Houston made it so the passing game wasn’t needed. Jones was taken out closer to the end of the game, which gave him more rest for the upcoming week. It’s typically a good idea to fade a player when they’re at their highest value, like Jones was in Week 3, but the ownership rate should drop with such hard focus on Devonta Freeman. Jones is likely to remain a solid grab for a high-priced pick.

Owen Daniels, TE- $2,700

The pick is admittedly risky, but Daniels is up against the Raiders this week, who have been obliterated by opposing tight ends, relinquishing six touchdowns to the position – and it’s not like they all went to guys like Rob Gronkowski. Guys like Gary Barnidge and Crockett Gillmore have eviscerated the Raiders safeties and linebackers. Oakland has also ranked last in targets (45), receptions (32) and yards allowed (388), so it’s not unrealistic to think Daniels could benefit from a poor pass defense; Daniels is priced so low, the low level of skill could be worth the risk for a solid
matchup.

Travis Kelce, TE- $5,200

If you’re looking to save salary and go with a cheaper tight end option than the Gronker, Kelce is your pick. Kelce has produced four or more catches in each game this season, with a minimum production of 49 yards. Against the Broncos defense – which is good – he managed four passes for 58 yards, so he stands to do much better against a Bears pass defense that is garbage. Kelce could produce similar to his Week 1 outing, where he claimed 106 yards with two touchdowns on six catches.

Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel Week 5:

Jay Cutler, QB- $7,400

No, it’s not a misprint. Cutler does have a few good weapons in his arsenal, and it’s possible that he could get Ashlon Jeffery back from the hamstring injury that has been plaguing him. The Bears play the Kansas City Chiefs this week who are currently giving up the most points to opposing quarterbacks, totaling 11 touchdowns in four games. Expect a lot of air-time for Cutler, which makes him a mid-level quarterback good for any format this week. I love Cutler in big tournaments as he’ll produce well without being highly owned. Everyone hates him – especially with Alshon’s status uncertain – which represents opportunity versus large fields.

Marcus Mariota, QB- $7,400

The Titans are coming off their bye week, and take on the Buffalo Bills, who are still reeling from their loss to the New York Giants. Still flying somewhat under the radar DFS-wise, Mariota has averaged 20 points per game on FanDuel. With the week off, the playbook is blown open, which can only help Mariota’s stats. Mariota goes against Buffalo this week, who has given up 10 touchdowns through four weeks, making them third in points given to opposing quarterbacks and the 12th-best matchup on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. For the potential point-production, Mariota is sitting at a solid price.

LeGarrette Blount, RB- $6,200

The Patriots will likely get an early lead this week against Dallas, and will rely on the running game to finish the game strong and come out with a win. Blount will have no problem carrying the workload, which was abundantly clear during Week 3 when he scored three touchdowns on 78 yards. You can expect a few touchdowns via Blount this week against the Cowboys, who have given up five touchdowns on the ground already this year.

Duke Johnson, RB- $5,900

Johnson is a solid grab for a second running back option. He’s gathered 22 fantasy points from 116 total yards on 17 touches. His use of go and wheel-routes after splitting out wide shows how his speed is consistently increasing, and the coaches have noticed. You can expect an increased role for Johnson week-to-week, as Cleveland tends to rely more on their better running back playmakers. The Ravens are in no way an easy opponent for Cleveland, but there’s tremendous upside to the low price. Baltimore is tough against opposing runners, but it hurts Isaiah Crowell more than Johnson as Johnson is used as more of a change-of-pace weapon who’ll get involved when the traditional first and second-down run-game stalls.

Julian Edelman, WR- $7,700

For some obvious reasons, the Patriots are a preferred play across the board this week. Edelman has had seven or more receptions and 80-plus yards in each of the three games he’s played this season, so it’s not unreasonable to expect the same, or better, from him this week. Dallas will likely focus its efforts on Rob Gronkowski, which will leave more opportunities for Edelman, who can also be pretty tough to cover.

Pierre Garcon, WR- $6,200

Garcon helped secure the win against the Eagles last week, and it’s probable that he’ll play a major role in the offensive battle against a steadily growing Falcons defense, who has focused heavily on improving their run-stopping. Washington will be forced to throw against Atlanta more than they are usually known for, and it’s doubtful that TE Jordan Reed will play. If you need a wide receiver option that isn’t going to take your complete salary, Garcon is a decent choice.

Antonio Gates, TE- $5,500

Gates will return from his four-game suspension this week, and San Diego might be without Stevie Johnson and Malcolm Floyd, so he should return to a prominent role on the offense. San Diego faces Pittsburgh this week, who hasn’t faced a star tight end since giving up three touchdowns to Gronkowski. Gates will quickly reassert himself as Philip Rivers’ favorite target.

2 Comments

  1. Post By FootballKingz

    Great insight again Kristen! Will def be looking to get some of these guys in my lineups

  2. Post By Kristen Ashly

    Thank you for reading!

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