Week 6 DFS Strategy and Top Picks by Position (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Kristen Ashly 750Week 6 of the NFL is in full swing, and the heartbreaking injuries haven’t eased up. Jamaal Charles is out for the year, which makes what is already turning out to be a hard fantasy year for some owners even harder – as usual.

This week, I’ll once again make an effort to choose some picks that will make your DFS life easier. Remember, I’m not suggesting you build an entire lineup from the picks below, but rather, I hope to identify players who have extreme value with their Week 6 salaries…

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Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:

Matthew Stafford, QB- $5,300

Admittedly, Stafford’s first five weeks have been atrocious. He looks nothing like the leading quarterback most of the league has seen in past seasons. However, it’s important to note how hard his first five weeks have been. He’s hosted the Broncos and Cardinals, then traveled to San Diego, Minnesota and Seattle; no walk in the park, all posing hard quarterback and wide receiver matchups. He’ll be cheap and low-owned this week, which gives him a solid upside. He’s due a big game, but there will be some risk involved.

Andy Dalton, QB- $5,700

Dalton had an amazing outing against a tough Seahawks defense, completing 30 of 44 for 331 yards, two touchdowns, and tacking on 18 rushing yards. If he can put up those numbers against a tough defense, he can cut it against the Bills. Buffalo allows the eighth-most DraftKing points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which will fit nicely against Dalton’s 67.5 percent completion rate. Marcus Mariota and the Titans fell victim to conservative play calling against the Bills, but the Bengals’ offensive coach Hue Jackson will let Dalton run wild. Dalton’s trails only behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers with a 115.6 quarterback rating, and his favorite target, A.J. Green, will not have to contend with an opposer like Richard Sherman this week. Expect a big turnout for Dalton and crew.

Giovani Bernard, RB- $4,600

Many expected Jeremy Hill to be the top back for Cincinnati this season, but it appears that notion was stomped in the mud. Bernard has outsnapped Hill three out of the last four games, adding to one of the best offense in the league through five weeks. Buffalo has done fairly well for their reputation over the last few weeks, so Bernard is likely to fly under the radar and be a great low-owned option. Expect Bernard to be an especially good tournament play this week.

Charcandrick West, RB- $4,000

Jamaal Charles is out this year with a torn ACL, and replacing him will be West and Knile Davis ($4,500). The undrafted, second-year pro had a solid production day last Sunday, carrying eight for 36 yards. Many expect he’ll warm up to his preseason greatness, where he totaled 181 scrimmage yards for an average per carry of 4.9 yards. West is more of a prototype player than Davis, which means he’s most likely to be the top option for picking up where Charles left off. The Chiefs won’t suddenly become a pass heavy team against Minnesota, so West is good bet for some solid yardage.

Calvin Johnson, WR- $7,300

To be honest, it’s almost unbelievable Johnson is still so highly priced. Many are still hanging on to the past with expectations from Megatron, though, and it’s not entirely doubtful that he’ll be able to pull of a big monster against a suffering Bears defensive unit. Johnson will face a pair of corners that don’t even cross the 200-pound threshold, while he himself is still looming at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds and we’ve seen what Megatron has done to Chicago in recent seasons. In four games dating back to 2013, he’s never had less than 15 points in PPR setups and has twice eclipsed 30. Expect Johnson to pull a rabbit out of his hat against an already suspect Bears secondary. Recency bias will keep most players off of Johnson and create an opportunity for the rest of us.

Mike Wallace, WR- $4,500

Wide receiver Charles Johnson missed the week before his Week 5 bye, due to an injury to the ribs. Wallace quickly took the top wide receiver designation, and the staff didn’t regret putting him there. He pulled in eight of 10 for 83 yards and a touchdown against an elite Bronco defense. He’s caught 83 percent of 24 targets, while the second option, Kyle Rudolph, has barely made an impression. The Chiefs have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league this season at 13, which puts Wallace at a great advantage. Plus, Wallace’s minor knee injury should lower his ownership rate, making his upside even greater. Keep an eye on the injury reports, but if Wallace is a go Sunday against the No.1 WR matchup on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool, the value is outstanding at this price.

Richard Rodgers, TE- $3,100

After the Packers sideline grew with a slew of injuries, Rodgers stepped in as a useful target. This may be the last week you’ll see Rodgers so cheap, and with such a low ownership rate, so pick him up while the time is ticking. With an arm like Aaron’s, it’s not bold to say the other Rodgers could be looking at another game with six catches, and a possible two touchdowns.

Antonio Gates, TE- $4,600

The Chargers’ offensive line is leading to a pretty predictable game plan weekly. Rivers leads the NFL in completions (164), passing yards (1,614) and San Diego is running 66.4 offensive plays per game (seventh-most). Against Green Bay, Rivers will throw often, which means security blanket Gates will get a fair share of attention.

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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:

Teddy Bridgewater, QB- $6,600

I’m so used to a Vikings offense that is forgettable, that I forget that Bridgewater was on fire to end last season. He makes for a great contrarian pick this week against a team like the Chiefs, where Wallace and Bridgewater stacked will capitalize on a soft secondary. Like noted before, the Chiefs have given up 13 touchdowns through the air in five games, and let Jay Cutler pass for two touchdowns without his top two wideouts. There’s reason to suspect Bridgewater will have the same success.

Colin Kaepernick, QB- $7,300

Kaepernick finally had a solid outing last week, despite last-minute heroics by Eli Manning and Larry Donnell. He threw for two touchdowns and racked up almost 21 FanDuel fantasy points. He faces a quarterback-friendly Ravens defense this week, that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including two quarterback rushing touchdowns. Kaepernick’s shown improvement in ball control, after he completed a game without an interception last week, completing 23-of-35 for 262 yards and two touchdowns. Kaepernick will have great appeal in almost every form of DFS this weekend, especially tournaments, as you can bet on less than five-percent ownership.

C.J. Anderson, RB- $6,600

Another contrarian play as Denver has been relying heavily on their defense as of late, and their run game is looking awful. Anderson failed to even look rosterable after he was touted as a second-round fantasy draft pick by many, but there’s still chance for Anderson to bounce back. Cleveland has given up five yards per carry and four touchdowns on the ground to running backs, and Ronnie Hillman has still not officially taken the number one running back spot from him. Anderson should be able to save face this week.

Eddie Lacy, RB- $7,300

Always a good option as a star member of a star offense, Lacy is finally healthy and looking to repair his recent reputation for getting off to rough starts. He’s facing a rather easy San Diego defense, who has given up five yards per carry and five touchdowns in as many games. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, but San Diego has given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season, so his workload near the goal line should pay off.

Anquan Boldin, WR- $6,500

Boldin is coming off his best game of the season, where he managed eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. His opponent this week, Baltimore, is giving up the second-most points to opposing wide receivers this season, and when Kaepernick is on his game, Boldin proves to be his favorite target. The matchup is favorable, as it’s against his former team (one of them, at least) and Baltimore has surrendered 285.2 passing yards per game. Boldin will be a safe play.

Julian Edelman, WR- $7,900

The Patriots are almost always a safe offensive play, and this week they travel to Indianapolis, who is struggling on defense. Edelman has three touchdowns on the year, and has gone over 15 FanDuel points in three of the last four games. The Colts have given up eight touchdowns to opposing receivers, so Edelman is good for at least 70 yards and a touchdown. There’s always an upside to pairing Brady and Edelman.

Darren Fells, TE- $4,800

Fells has been inconsistent, as he’s scored in two games, and was utterly useless in the other two. However, Fells could be a big play this week in big tournament, has he faces a favorable matchup in the Steelers. When he’s scored, he’s done so against teams in the top six of points given up to tight ends; the Steelers have given up six touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Julius Thomas, TE- $5,200

Thomas has seen limited snaps since his hand injury, and the Jags are anxious for a big return from Thomas, after Rashad Greene (thumb) and Marqise Lee (hamstring) both left due to injury. Thomas looks to see a big role in the redzone offense, and will prove to once again be a security blanket for an improving Blake Bortles.

4 Comments

  1. RW Team,
    Looking for some advice on a trade in a 12-team, 1pt PPR league. I’m top heavy with my WRs and want to upgrade my WR3 spot. I have Danny Woodhead and John Brown available to trade and need a better idea of what a fair return for both of them would be. Would one of these WRs be a fair trade for both Woodhead/Brown: Julien Edelman, Brandon Marshall, Amari Cooper or Emmanuel Sanders? These are the WRs I’m targeting (in that order). Am I asking too much (or not enough) for Woodhead/Brown or is this a fair exchange?

    If I only trade Woodhead, would Jeremy Maclin be a fair trade for Woodhead only? Or can I do a little better than Maclin?

    Appreciate any feedback! Looking forward to you guys and the Robot Genius on SXM tomorrow….I never miss it!

  2. We think you may be able to get Cooper or Sanders- who we both LOVE. We also value John Brown quite a bit- but those guys would represent a legit upgrade- would certainly offer for Edelman or Marshall- but don’t see as likely to be accepted

    1. Thanks for the replies, I very much appreciate it. I don’t have a lot of experience trading and wanted some expert advice before I went and made a big mistake on my own. Hope the Trashman has a filthy bag of garbage ready for us on Saturday! Take care.

  3. Maclin would be fair- and would be a nice deal for you. Like that a lot. If you think you can get someone even better, always start at the top. But if Woodhead netter Maclin for you- that’s solid

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