DeMarco Murray vs Darren McFadden Fantasy Scoring Distribution
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

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You’ll be shuffling through talented, yet unreliable options when dealing with these two. Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray. Two guys going pretty much back to back in any mock draft that you run. Which one will you choose?

Well, we know that historically both play in about 67% of their games. Ouch.

It’s hard to deny that Murray plays for the better team, which will be in position to score far more often. Still, we know McFadden will be the centerpiece of his offense, albeit a potentially very crappy one. We’ve seen elite production from Run DMC before, but have only caught mere glimpses of it from Murray.

One way to slice this is by dissecting their fantasy scoring distributions. How prolifically they score, and how those points are delivered over a week to week basis. They demonstrate relatively similar reliability over their scoring outputs. McFadden shows significantly more upside.

(Click to Enlarge Graph)

Murray had an edge in scoring average in 2012, but their medians both reflected a 10 point guy last year. Over the last 3 years- McFadden has a significant in edge in average and median scoring. Murray’s profile has been most indicative of a 7-10 point player on a weekly basis, while McFadden has mostly been semi-boom or bust.

The Cowboys swear their single back formations and commitment to the run will pay dividends for Murray in 2013. Everybody in Oakland is convinced that McFadden’s dip in production was due to an ill-fit blocking scheme and should all be swept under the rug in a contract season with the arrival of Tony Sparano and his man/power attack.

Our advice? Don’t over-draft either one of them. If you want the guy with the biggest upside, take McFadden. If you want to play it a little safer, and would like more consistent production out of your RB2, go with Murray. The decision should be influenced by who you came away with in earlier rounds and their respective risk-scenarios.