Fantasy Football: Underrated — Maurice Jones-Drew
The Trashman, Rosterwatch.com

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I know it can be scary spending a high draft pick on a player coming off injury, but if there’s one thing we can glean from Adrian Peterson’s miracle season last year it’s that with current medicine, players can bounce back quickly. Now maybe AP is some sort of anomaly, and we shouldn’t expect similar things from recently injured players, but I think in the case of Maurice Jones-Drew, we have another exception on our hands.

A Lisfranc injury is one of the more dreaded maladies that can befall an athlete, but it’s hardly career ending. Cedric Benson, Matt Schaub, and DeMarco Murray have all had Lisfranc injuries, and they’re still productive in the league. Kevin Smith isn’t. Now eight months out of Lisfranc surgery, MJD has an average draft position of 23 and is 15th among running backs, a far cry from where he usually sits in drafts. A couple years ago, he wouldn’t make it past the first round. In 2012, he only slid because of worries regarding his contract and holdout.

If there’s one thing I know about MJD, it’s that you can never underestimate the man. Every year since he’s been in the league, we come into the following season’s draft thinking there’s no way he can get as many carries as he does and make it through a season. And every season he defies the odds. 2012 was the first time since his emergence from behind Fred Taylor’s shadow that he “came through” in disappointing owners, and that has people a further gun shy.

Still, I don’t see MJD more of a risk than some of the guys being drafted ahead of him right now. Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson, 2-3 spots ahead of MJD, were outperformed the three years prior to his injury. It’s not like the Jaguars aren’t going to lean on MJD just as they have in the past. Once again, they’ll realize that whoever is under center is virtually useless, and MJD will get 300+ carries in an effort to make the team seem competitive. If you think Blaine Gabbert is finally going to turn that corner, I have some oil to sell you—and it’s snaky.

If you somehow stumble onto MJD for your late-second round pick after drawing first or second pick in your league, then consider yourself extremely fortunate. And if you’re at your first pick in the draft and the premier running backs are already off the table, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him. I guarantee the other guys who are available don’t have a ceiling as high as MJD. You think Frank Gore or Darren MCFadden is going to have a better year? If I told you to call me when DMC made it through a season healthy, my phone would have never rung once in five years. Believe me, Jacksonville is going to run MJD till the wheels fall off. Then they’re going to franchise him in 2014 and send his then 30-year old body packing in 2015. Don’t let him become this year’s AP-story while you watch from afar and rue the day you second guessed him.