Ray Rice vs. LeSean McCoy Three Year Points Analysis
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

Photo via Lesean McCoy Twitter

Annual staples at the very top of fantasy football drafts, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are no longer consensus Top 5 picks. Neither runner had the type of season in 2012 people were expecting. Shady got injured, and both players saw young, talented backups emerge. Both offenses could be run-heavy in 2013, though.

If Rice and McCoy are there when you are on the clock in your fantasy football draft, who do you take? We sort through three years of scoring data to help shed light on the answer:

Early in their primes, and at similar points in their careers, the three-year data suggests that we know who these guys are. It’s obvious why we are having this debate. At a glance, their points distributions are eerily similar over the past three seasons.

The devil is in the details.

Both Rice and McCoy demonstrated similar high-end scoring, with a slight edge going to McCoy. Ray Rice has averaged 15.3 standard fantasy points per game over the last three seasons. McCoy has averaged 15.36. The median range is an expected 10-15 point output for both.

Rice has played in 100% of games over this span, McCoy in 87.5%. Shady scores at least 7 points over 95% of the time while Rice avoids a fantasy stinker in just over 85% of appearances.

Looking at 2012 production, the most striking change took place for McCoy. His upside completely evaporated. It showed in his 12.61 points-per-game average. But, his floor was higher than ever. He scored more than ten points 11 out of 12 times. The model of reliability. Until he got hurt, of course.

As for Rice, he was what he is; and has been. We saw a small decrease in upside and a slight uptick in sub-par performances. His 13.88 PPG were a step down for him. If you take out his three-carry Week 17 performance when Baltimore rested him for their Super Bowl run, Rice was actually a 14.77 PPG guy in 2012. For the most part, his 2012 graph is almost identical to his three year chart. With Rice, you know exactly what you are getting. 15 PPG with a limited ceiling, about 4 duds a year, and extreme durability. We surmise the offensive circumstances will play in that direction again this year.

For McCoy, we believe last year’s output was a product of the circumstances. The offense was a turnover machine. Shady was the most reliable cog. Nobody had any upside. As for the missed games- McCoy had played in 94% of contests the prior two years combined. We’re willing to give him some slack on the concussion last year. He does not have a history of them. It’s not connected to his other body parts (Well, it is in some ways but you get what we’re saying.)

We believe McCoy returns to form in a high-volume Chip Kelly offense. A 15 point-per-game guy with a touch more upside than Rice. More importantly, with better reliability. McCoy has shown he’s going to soil the bed 1-2 times less per season than Ray Ray.

Fantasy Football is a week-to-week proposition—that’s the difference between making the playoffs or sometimes even winning the title. We have to give the edge to McCoy in 2013. If you are concerned about injury, draft Bryce Brown in the 9th or 10th round- he’s a good pick anyways.