RosterWatch Week 6 WR Touchdown Dependency Tool and Notes
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com
Wes Welker is alarmingly touchdown dependent, and coming dangerously close to some single digit performances. In theory, Welker’s production should recede, which we already saw a little bit of last week. Of course, there are outliers that flip the rules on their head- and anything related to Peyton Manning could be one of them.
On the other hand, Torrey Smith produced another 12 points without getting in to the endzone. He’s becoming a sure thing on a weekly basis, with what appears to be massive upside.
While Welker will surely continue to be an elite option, the early trends we spotted a few weeks ago are beginning to take root. Polar opposites in terms of touchdown dependency, Smith and Welker’s fantasy production are headed in different directions.
We aren’t saying Smith will surpass Welker this year- but we are saying under any normal set of circumstances- according to this tool- the gap between the two will continue to close.
Mostly, this is just an example of how this data works- and how it is to be interpreted. Players with crazy-low touchdown dependency metrics, may just be completely void of upside at this point in the season.