Week 2 DFS Cheat Sheet (DraftKings) Now Available

Mike Band Heashot 750Week 2 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: DraftKings
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
Follow Mike Band on Twitter

*****As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise.*****

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The Vegas Tool will be out before the main slate occurs.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the DraftKings Cheat Sheet.

28 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By hotwls13

    Do we not have the option to download the Cheat Sheets to PDF this Year?? Last Year I used the printed forms to make my lineups.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Not currently. With all of the improvements to functionality we made for this release, in order to be able to provide up to the minute updates to the Cheat Sheets and Hyper as more data / info comes in- we had to kill the PDFs.

      This is something that is under review. Thanks so much for your loyal support, as well as the feedback.

      1. ↓ Post By hotwls13

        So, with the “cheat sheets”, what’s the point of the check boxes?? With the PDF’s, I could highlight or otherwise mark which players I have used in a previous lineup. I could also mark each time I used a particular player (so as not to have too many over used players). Just using the current online cheat sheet it will only reflect one lineup whith no way to reference whether I have used a player in a previous lineup.

        1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

          Again, we are working on the pdf situation, there wasn’t a way to get everything live in Week 1 with some of the new functionality (along with the ability to integrate data from the Vegas Tool when it comes in) unless we scrapped the pdfs to start. Apologies for any inconvenience, but we are working on a resolution as Byron says.

  2. ↓ Post By eyak29

    Does a higher RosterWatch trend score mean that you like them the more than others with a lower score?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      It’s a reflection of how our analytics models feel towards a player.

  3. ↓ Post By roboatse

    No love for J. Rogers/TB this week? I would have thought at his price and his role last year he’d be a steal. oh well, Trust in RW 🙂

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Might be your own little pinch of spice you gotta add to this week’s DFS masterpiece.

  4. ↓ Post By traviseckendorf@gmail.com

    Are we able to download the full player trend list like it says on the bottom of the sheet? Went to the tools page and saw nothing

  5. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Hi Travis,

    Thanks for the message. We will amend the tools page. Unfortunately, the trends sheets were causing too much user confusion- so they are not longer available

    I will put on the development list that you have requested a potential return of this information.

    -B

    1. ↓ Post By traviseckendorf@gmail.com

      Thanks byron. Do you guys do any wr vs cb matchup stuff, like for slot wr vs slot corner etc?

      Also, on the hyper DFS tool davante Adams still shows last week’s salary and him playing Seattle

      1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

        shit, it’s pulling all of last week’s salaries for the players not on the sheet. We’re going to pull down Hyper while the developer works on a fix. For now, please just rely on the sheet.

    2. ↓ Post By treefrog13

      YES! Please bring back the full downloadable trends sheet, along with the DFS *.pdfs

      😉

  6. ↓ Post By gutsman004

    Would you play Rivers in cash? I know lots will go towards Brady and Rodgers,but he’s so cheap and you can fit in so many more good players.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I would def be comfortable doing that.

  7. ↓ Post By FrankGrimes

    Eat a dick john brown. Have a nice trip to waiver town.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      haha! We tried to tell the Trashman that John Brown was total garb this year!

  8. ↓ Post By FrankGrimes

    Drop one: prosise, forte or kamara ?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      prob Prosise, maybe Forte – if you don’t ever need to play Forte you could let the old man go if you want to go young.

      1. ↓ Post By FrankGrimes

        In another league (can only roster 4 RBs)
        Would you grab Allen and dump Ameer or Powell?

  9. ↓ Post By ronmcfarland12@yahoo.com

    Cowtipper 12 Team .5 PPR Wavier Question

    Replacing A Robinson pick one.
    K. Wright
    B. Perriman
    M. Jones
    K. Stills
    BTW: I see the weekly rankings; are there season long rankings?
    Thanks.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      This week- I’d play Stills, then look at if again next week.

  10. ↓ Post By mjgoodsman@live.com

    Need 1RB, 1WR & Flex Standard league

    I Crowell, Buck Allen, M Ingram, M Crabtree, C Hogan, P Garcon, A Jeffery

    #RosterWatchNation

  11. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

    Eh tough call on the RB. I’d prob roll Buck Allen. Ingram has the best matchup. Crowell the straightest line to work and goal lines. All decent options. Buck could get a ton of grab time in this game, esp in PPR.

  12. ↓ Post By Warren Hargett

    is the hyper dfs lineup generator available for week 2?

  13. ↓ Post By icebreaker1892

    Just wondering why Monday Night game isn’t included? We have a 15-man DraftKings league for Sunday-Monday. I am really trying to work in Evan Engram as either my FLEX with Fleener at TE or Engram at TE and somebody else at flex

  14. ↓ Post By John Olson

    Flex? Diggs or T. Hill?

  15. ↓ Post By John Olson

    Should I play Diggs or Dez? 0.5 PPR

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