Week 4 RosterWatch RB Touchdown Dependency Tool
Byron Lambert, Rosterwatch.com

RosterWatch unveiled the original touchdown dependency tool in 2012. The first of its kind. We learned that touchdowns are responsible for approximately 25% of fantasy production for healthy and consistent contributors at the skill positions.

Why do we care about this?

To identify trends and assign levels of certainty and future value to prospects!

Trust us, the data put us ahead of the curve by 1-2 weeks in many circumstances last season. It’s one of the tools that gives us a big edge in our Fantasypros.com rankings accuracy- which is always near the top out of over 100 experts in the world.

Players with very high touchdown dependency ratios (relative to the average) tend to be inconsistent contributors on a weekly basis. They go off one week, and crap the bed another. We don’t prefer those players. Great potential also exists for their scoring averages to decrease. Many of these guys can be good “sell high” candidates.

Of course, sometimes there are exceptions like Arian Foster last year, or Adrian Peterson this year. Their gaudy rate of hitting paydirt is likely to maintain. If it doesn’t- somebody like Peterson will compensate by contributing more in the yards department over the long-run.

Guys with low touchdown dependency ratios are good candidates to maintain their current levels of fantasy production, or possibly increase them. They tend to be consistent and reliable contributors. Which, anyone who reads this website knows- we are firm believers in reliability. Fantasy is a weekly proposition and you must field a competitive team every week. Extremely low ratios are troublesome, in that they represent very limited upside or massive under-performance.

Obviously, this is a supplemental tool meant to be used in context with everything else we know about a given player’s circumstances. Alarmingly high or low TD Dependency Ratios are highlighted in red. Comfortable and maintainable ratios are highlighted in blue.