What Can The Last 4 Years Tell Us About Who Wins the AFC & NFC Championships?

Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com

THE PRESENT
AFC Championship – Ravens @ Patriots
NFC Championship – Giants @ 49ers

BEST QB: PATRIOTS.
Tom Brady leads this group in Passer Rating, Completion Percentage, Passing Yards and TDs.
In the last 4 seasons, the team with the best QB (statistically-regular season) of the final four teams has only WON one Super Bowl, but the best QB has TAKEN his team to the Super Bowl all four times.

BEST RB: RAVENS.
Ray Rice had almost 2100 yards from scrimmage this season with 15 TDs.
In the last 4 seasons, the team with the best RB (statistically-regular season) has not won a Super Bowl. The team with the best RB has only reached the Super Bowl once.

BEST WRs: GIANTS.
Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. All healthy.
In the last 4 seasons, the team with the best of the four receiving corps has gone to every Super Bowl, but only WON one.

BEST TAKEAWAY/GIVEAWAY RATIO: 49ERS
(+28, #1 in the NFL)
In the last 4 seasons, the team with the best turnover ratio has gone to 3 of 4 Super Bowls and WON one.

LEAST POINTS ALLOWED: 49ERS
(229, #2 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that allowed the fewest regular season points of the final four teams has gone to the Super Bowl 3 out of 4 times, and WON one.

MOST SACKS: GIANTS
(48, #3 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that had the most regular season sacks has gone to the Super Bowl 3 out of 4 times, winning 2 out of 4 times. It is worth noting that if Green Bay had one more sack in 2010, they would have been tied for first place with the Steelers. Meaning, one more regular season sack for the Packers in 2010, and we could say that the team with the most sacks has won 3 out of the last 4 Super Bowls.

MOST INTERCEPTIONS: PATRIOTS/ 49ERS (tie)
(23, #2 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team with the most regular season interceptions has gone to 2 of 4 Super Bowls and WON 2 Super Bowls.

BEST PASS DEFENSE: RAVENS
(196.2 yards/game, #4 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that allowed the fewest regular season passing yards has gone to 3 of 4 Super Bowls, winning every one.

BEST RUN DEFENSE: 49ERS
(77.2 yards/game, #1 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that allowed the fewest regular season rushing yards has gone to 3 of 4 Super Bowls, winning 2.

MOST DEPENDABLE KICKER: PATRIOTS
(Stephen Gostkowski, made 85% of field goals)
In the last four seasons, the team that has had the most dependable kicker based on FG% made has gone to 2 of 4 Super Bowls and not won any.

BEST OFFENSIVE 3rd DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE: PATRIOTS
(46%, #4 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that has the highest regular season 3rd-down conversion percentage has gone to 3 out of 4 Super Bowls, but never gotten a victory.

BEST AVERAGE TIME OF POSSESSION: 49ERS
(31:48, #4 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that has the highest regular season average time of possession has gone to 3 or 4 Super Bowls, only winning one.

LEAST PENALTY YARDS: RAVENS
(43.6 yards/game, #4 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that has the least regular season penalty yards has gone to 3 out of 4 Super Bowls, winning 2.

LEAST ALLOWED 3rd DOWN CONVERSIONS: RAVENS
(4.5 conversions/game, #5 in the NFL)
In the last four seasons, the team that allowed the fewest regular season 3rd down conversions has gone to 2 of 4 Super Bowls, only winning one.

2007-2008   
Chargers 12    Patriots 21
Giants 23     Packers 20

Super Bowl XLII- Giants beat the Patriots in Glendale 17-14

Best QB: PATRIOTS. League MVP Tom Brady led his team to the first perfect regular season since the 1972 Dolphins, finishing first in passing yards, passing TDs and passer rating. He came into the playoffs with three Super Bowl Championship rings, and had already successfully led six game winning drives in the playoffs.
Best RB: CHARGERS. First-team All-Pro RB LaDanian Tomlinson had almost 2000 yards from scrimmage in 2007 and 18 total TDs.
Best WRs: PATRIOTS. Randy Moss broke Jerry Rice’s single season TD record* in 2007, catching 23 balls for scores. (*Rice held the record for 20 years having achieved this feat  in a short 12-game season as compared to Moss’s “recording-breaking” 16-game output) The Patriots receiving arsenal going into the 2008 Super Bowl also included Wes Welker (1175 yards, 8 TDs) and was rounded out by Donte Stallworth, a near 700-yard contributor.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential: PATRIOTS (+16, #1 in NFL)
Points Allowed: PATRIOTS (274, #4 in NFL)
Most Sacks: GIANTS (53, #1 in NFL)
Most Interceptions: CHARGERS (30, #1 in NFL)
Best Pass Defense: PATRIOTS (190.1 yds/game, #6 in NFL)
Best Run Defense: GIANTS (97.7 yds/game, #8 in NFL)
Most Dependable Kicker: PATRIOTS (Stephen Gostkowski, 88% on FG attempts)
Best 3rd Down Percentage: PATRIOTS ( 49.12%, #1 in NFL)
Average Time of Possession: PATRIOTS (32:27, #2 in NFL)
Least Penalty Yards: GIANTS (40.2 yds/game, #11 in NFL)
Least Allowed 3rd Down Conversions: PATRIOTS (4.1 conversions/game, #1 in NFL)

Champion: (New York Giants)
Wild Card Team.
Played all three playoff games leading to the Super Bowl on the road.
Was best of the 4 finalist teams in regular season Sacks, Run Defense and Penalty Yardage.

2008-2009   
Eagles 25    Cardinals 32
Ravens 14    Steelers 23

Super Bowl XLIII- Steelers beat Cardinals 27-23 at RayJay in Tampa

Best QB: CARDINALS. In 2008, Kurt Warner was a two-time NFL MVP and passed for 4583 yards (#2 in NFL) 30 TDs (#3 in NFL) with a 96.9 Passer Rating. (#3 in NFL)
Best RB: EAGLES. Brian Westbrook was the most productive and most versatile back of any that played in Championship Games that season. His closest competition was Steeler Willie Parker who rushed for almost 400 yards less than Westbrook. This is before even counting Westbrook’s 400-plus receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs.
Best WRs: CARDINALS. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in their prime as well as a third target in Steve Breaston, who had over 1000 receiving yards in 2008 himself.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential: RAVENS (+14, #3 in NFL)
Points Allowed: STEELERS (223, #1 in NFL)
Most Sacks: STEELERS (51, #2 in NFL)
Most Interceptions: RAVENS (26, #1 in NFL)
Best Pass Defense: STEELERS (156.9 yds/game, #6 in NFL)
Best Run Defense: STEELERS (80.2 yds/game, #2 in NFL)
Most Dependable Kicker: CARDINALS (Neil Rackers, 89% on FG attempts)
Best 3rd Down Percentage: EAGLES ( 41.95%, #11 in NFL)
Average Time of Possession: RAVENS (32:09, #3 in NFL)
Least Penalty Yards: EAGLES (41.8 yds/game, #15 in NFL)
Least Allowed 3rd Down Conversions: STEELERS (4.3 conversions/game, #1 in NFL)

Champion: (Pittsburgh Steelers)
2-seed with first-round bye.
Played both games leading to Super Bowl at home.
Was best of the 4 finalist teams in regular season Points Allowed, Sacks, Run Defense, Pass Defense and Opponent 3rd Down Percentage.

2009-2010   
Vikings 28    Saints 31
Jets 17        Colts 30

Super Bowl XLIV- Saints beat the Colts 31-17 in Miami

Best QB: COLTS. Entering the 2008/09 playoffs, as much as it pains me to say as a former teammate of Drew Brees- Peyton Manning was the best QB at that moment in time, and the league’s MVP. While Drew had a higher passer rating and threw for one more TD than Manning, Manning was third in the league in pass attempts and basically did everything for the offense short of setting up Gatorade coolers and cleaning jock straps.
Best RB: VIKINGS. Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing TDs with 18 in 2008, racking up almost 1400 yards on the ground. He was one of three serious MVP contenders along with the two aforementioned QBs.
Best WRs: COLTS. Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark each had 10 TD grabs and 1264 and 1106 yards respectively, while Austin Collie racked up 7 TDs and Pierre Garcon began coming on, going for 745 yards.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential: SAINTS (+11, #3 in NFL)
Points Allowed: JETS (236, #1 in NFL)
Most Sacks: VIKINGS (48, #1 in NFL)
Most Interceptions: SAINTS (26, #3 in NFL)
Best Pass Defense: JETS (153.6 yds/game, #1 in NFL)
Best Run Defense: VIKINGS (87.1 yds/game, #2 in NFL)
Most Dependable Kicker: VIKINGS (Ryan Longwell, 93% on FG attempts)
Best 3rd Down Percentage: COLTS (47.84%, #2 in NFL)
Average Time of Possession: SAINTS (32:00, #3 in NFL)
Least Penalty Yards: COLTS (32.9 yds/game, #2 in NFL)
Least Allowed 3rd Down Conversions: VIKINGS (4.2 conversions/game, #1 in NFL)

Champion: (New Orleans Saints)
1-seed with first round bye.
Played both games leading to Super Bowl at home.
Was best of the 4 finalist teams in regular season Turnover Differential, Interceptions, and Average Time of Possession.

2010-2011   
Packers 21    Bears 14
Jets 19     Steelers 24

Super Bowl XLV- Packers beat the Steelers 31-25 at JerryWorld

Best QB: PACKERS. Aaron Rodgers led all QBs in this foursome in Passer Rating, Completion Percentage, Passing Yards and TDs.
Best RB: STEELERS. Rashard Medenhall did not have as many total yards from scrimmage in 2010 as Bears RB Matt Forte, but he parlayed his own 1400-plus total yards into 150% of Forte’s TD production against a much harder schedule.
Best WRs: PACKERS. Greg Jennings was a beast in 2010, going for 1265 yards and 12 TDs. Jennings was complimented by the trio of Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and James Jones, who each racked up 550-plus yard seasons respectively.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential: STEELERS (+17, #2 in NFL) pack 4
Points Allowed: STEELERS (232, #1 in NFL)
Most Sacks: STEELERS (48, #1 in NFL)
Most Interceptions: PACKERS (23, #3 in NFL)
Best Pass Defense: PACKERS (194.2 yds/game, #3 in NFL)
Best Run Defense: STEELERS (62.8 yds/game, #1 in NFL)
Most Dependable Kicker: STEELERS (Shaun Suisham, 93% on FG attempts)
Best 3rd Down Percentage: STEELERS (55.79%, #11 in NFL)
Average Time of Possession: STEELERS (32:12, #1 in NFL)  
Least Penalty Yards: PACKERS (40.2 yds/game, #4 in NFL)
Least Allowed 3rd Down Conversions: BEARS (4.2 conversions/game, #2 in NFL)

Champion: (Green Bay Packers)
Best QB. Best WRs.
Wild Card Team.
Played all three playoff games leading to the Super Bowl on the road.
Was best of the 4 finalist teams in regular season Interceptions, Pass Defense, and Penalty Yardage.

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