2016 Rookie RB Landing Spots Primer: Rounds 5-7

alex bylineThe NFL draft has passed and the fantasy stars of tomorrow now know where they’ll be spending the first parts of their respective careers. Here, we’ll take a look at the running backs taken in Round 5 and later and give a small primer regarding our line of thinking as we begin construction on V.1 of the world-famous RosterWatch Cheat Sheet for Dynasty Rookie Drafts:

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(Player, Team, Round Selected, NFL Comps)
***Players listed in order of where they were taken, not in order of ranking.
For Rounds 1-4 Primer, Click Here

Alex Collins, Seahawks (5th) Comps: DeAngelo Williams

– What a sorry landing spot this seems like for Collins on the surface. As a dynasty owner of Collins in a deep league with developmental college taxi rosters, things couldn’t have panned out worse. Not only is Thomas Rawls a similar (and probably better) runner, but the Seahawks also took CJ Prosise in the 3rd round and Zac Brooks in the 7th. Even though Rawls is still recovering from 2015 ankle injury, it’s still a messy deal. We like Prosise much better as an overall player and believe in the hypothetical absence of Rawls that Prosise could handle more than just change-of-pace duty making Collins (at this time) questionable even regarding level-of-handcuff-efficiency when considering Rawls.

Jordan Howard, Bears (5th) Comps: Andre Williams, Shonn Greene, Carlos Hyde

– Almost the complete opposite situation of Collins, Howard was a runner who was a tough sell for us during the process, but one who we’ve warmed up to significantly since finding out his landing spot. The Bears have made no secret that they don’t believe that the Jeremy Langford/Kadeem Carey platoon will be the 1-2 combo of the future through their unsuccessful dealings with CJ Anderson in free agency. Howard comes in as a player we see in the mold of a Shonn Greene. He’s shown in college film that he can be dangerous when given volume and can wear down defenses. Clearly, he isn’t guaranteed that volume at the NFL level, but the depth chart isn’t exactly stacked following the loss of Matt Forte.

Paul Perkins, Giants (5th) Comps: Duke Johnson, Felix Jones, Devonta Freeman

– At RosterWatch, we love us some Paul Perkins. Clearly, he doesn’t fall to a situation that provides much immediate clarity as the Giants were a three (and sometimes four)-headed monster in 2015 at the RB position, rendering all participants largely worthless for fantasy purposes. However, Rashad Jennings’ deal will be up after 2017 and the team could easily part ways with after 2016 (at age 32) due to the structuring of his contract. As for Shane Vereen and Andre Williams, both players will also be out of New York by or before 2017. We don’t see Perkins as an immediate-impact player, but do see him as one who’ll likely begin to break out somewhat as early as the end of the 2016 season with an arrow pointing up for future seasons. At his current ADP of late-second to early-third in early dynasty drafts, we’ll be finding ourselves with a lot of Paul Perkins exposure in a bit of a long-play with an outside shot at immediate upside if injuries occur to others or opportunity to break out of the pack arises as a rookie.

Jonathan Williams, Bills (5th) Comps: Doug Martin, Mike Davis

– Through the draft process, we somehow got to like Alex Collins’ backfield-mate Jonathan Williams as much or more than Collins with getting to see them both live (Williams even in a limited setting at the Senior Bowl was still very impressive) and digging in on more tape. It also happens to be that we like Williams’ landing spot better than Collins’. Put the two things together and it follows that we like Jonathan Williams much better for fantasy (at least to start things out) than Alex Collins. Lesean McCoy and Karlos Williams are both in town still, but Shady isn’t getting any younger and he’s guaranteed to be hurt for at least part of the season any season. Karlos Williams (a player many RW Cheat Sheet users from 2015 own in dynasty) is a stud but he’s shown he can’t stay very healthy even in limited duty and concussions are becoming more and more of a concern. Williams could be a player who is asked to take on workhorse-duties as early as 2016 should injuries strike these two at the same time much like they did in 2015 when the Bills had to run out slugs like Boobie Dixon.

Wendell Smallwood, Eagles (5th) Comps: Johnathan Franklin, Tre Mason

– Smallwood reminds you a little bit of a college-era Johnathan Franklin with the way he moves, but when you look at him, he’s substantial enough to take a bit of a beating at just under 210 in the mold of a Devonta Freeman or a Tre Mason. He’s actually one of the more interesting and under-the-radar dynasty prospects as Demarco Murray is out town, Ryan Mathews will never stay healthy, and the depth behind those two is scraps. Philly hasn’t drafted an RB since 2012 with the selection of Bryce Brown. Smallwood is from the Philly area and the fit seems about as good one could imagine for a later-round dynasty flier that could pay off in spades down the road if not right off the bat. Doug Pederson knows how to use this style of Big 12 all-around back as evidenced by Jamaal Charles. One thing to remember about Smallwood is he could be a turd — he was investigated during college for witness tampering with a murder case and we get the willies when we hear about a prospect finding himself involved in these sorts of situations no matter how good an explanation they might have.

Keith Marshall, Redskins (7th) Comps: Chris Johnson

– Speed, speed, speed. Don’t forget about Marshall in your dynasty drafts just because he was the last RB taken in the 2016 NFL draft. The depth chart in D.C. is wide-open to a contributor of basically any running-type or style to come in and earn legitimate, substantial work. It is not out of the realm of possibility to envision a Matt Jones/Keith Marshall platoon of some sort as early as the 2016 season.

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